It takes more than one cold day for the river to freeze three feet deep. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly pointed out that there is no simple solution to complex issues. Although there are still major differences in the positions of the parties involved, it is better to talk than to fight.
The statement above, taken from a release promulgated by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs this week, is full of Chinese bureaucratic doublespeak. The quirky metaphor up front, and Xi’s support for Putin by playing for time that is inherent in this statement, are indicative of China’s clear preference for a long war in Ukraine.
Back in July last year, I published an article that I called “How China Benefits from a Russian Long War in Ukraine.” It proposed that China’s strategic interests were best served by a long war in Ukraine. This article provides a significantly updated version of that analysis, acknowledging key political and military events of the past year as well as the confirmation of China’s stance on the war during the week by a senior Chinese official.
This week, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, confirmed this hypothesis during a meeting with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. As reported in the South China Morning Post, the exchange was described as follows:
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.
The Chinese Foreign Minister has essentially said the quiet thing out loud.
Despite Chinese protestations that they are not a party to the war (they are actually Russia’s most important war enabler) and that it seeks peace talks, Wang Yi has confirmed the strategic lens through which China actually views the war. Their calculus is this: China benefits from prolonging the war in Ukraine.
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