US Lawmakers Meet Dalai Lama in India’s Dharamshala, Sparking Anger From China

Ashwini Bhatia and Krutika Pathi

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A bipartisan United States congressional delegation met with the Dalai Lama Wednesday at his residence in India’s Dharamshala, sparking anger from China, which views the exiled spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism as a dangerous separatist.

This comes as Washington and Beijing have recently restarted talks after several years of turmoil that began after the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods under the Trump administration. Relations at the time deteriorated even more following the COVID-19 pandemic and the rising military tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

The high-level delegation, led by Republican Rep. Michael McCaul and including Democratic former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, arrived Tuesday at the hillside town, which the Nobel Peace Prize laureate has made his headquarters since fleeing from Tibet after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959. There, they met with officials from the Tibetan government-in-exile, which wants more autonomy for Tibet.

Chinese military developments and national security challenges for India

Bhartendu Kumar Singh

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A major national security challenge that the government would face in this tenure is the momentous developments in Chinese military preparedness affecting the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the Indo-Pacific area. While China’s military modernisation has been an ongoing process for the last few decades (and so has been India’s defensive response), its pace has accelerated in recent times. The LAC that was ‘relatively peaceful’ until a decade ago, has metamorphosed into an active front with looming war threats. Unless deftly handled, the bilateral military power balance would soon become too asymmetrical and may critically imperil the LAC sanctity.

Much of the current modernisation goals for the PLA were finalised in the 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2022. The military dimension of the Report to the Congress focused on ‘intensifying and accelerating the PLA’s modernisation goals’. Accordingly, by 2027, the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) is to aim towards finishing its first phase of modernisation process. This is the time when the PLA would have completed 100 years of its foundation. The second phase of military modernisation would complete by 2035. By 2049, China aims to metamorphose its PLA into a world-class armed force capable of out rightly taking on the US military muscle in the Indo-Pacific region.

Myanmar’s Conflict Reaches the Doorstep of Bangladesh’s Saint Martin’s Island

Saqlain Rizve

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This February, I went on a three day vacation with my friends to Saint Martin’s Island, an 8-square-kilometer island in the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh. The island is also known as Narikel Jinjira (Coconut Island) or Daruchini Dwip (Cinnamon Island).

It was around 9:00 a.m. on February 14. I had just woken up. Soon after, I heard a booming sound mingling with the melody of the saltwater waves. Five minutes later, the sound came again – this time three consecutive blasts.

At our resort, I overheard some people talking. “I’ve been hearing that sound since early morning,” one said. “Locals say it’s the sound of bombing and firing between the resistance group and the Myanmar Army.”

Although Saint Martin’s Island is under Bangladesh’s jurisdiction, it is only eight kilometers from the Myanmar coast. The island’s southern and western parts are bordered by an endless expanse of the Bay of Bengal, while the northern coast faces mainland Bangladesh. The island is around nine kilometers away from Teknaf, a subdistrict in Cox’s Bazar District.

Would Russia Aid China in an Invasion of Taiwan?

Audrey Oien

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If China were to invade Taiwan, it is likely that Russia would provide Beijing with military, economic, or political assistance. While some experts have argued Ukraine and Taiwan are not the same situation, there are nonetheless lessons that can be drawn from Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as insight from U.S. officials that can be drawn upon to come to this conclusion.

Over the last several years, Russia and China have grown closer in many ways, including through increased military cooperation. Of the numerous joint exercises that have been held, ones that stand out are joint naval drills and air force patrols over the East China Sea. The naval drills began in 2022 and are the closest that joint drills have been held to the Taiwan Strait. Joint exercises are not a smoking gun, but concern from American officials may be a reliable indicator that this is worth paying attention to.

In early May, two American intelligence officials testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that increased Sino-Russian military cooperation has prompted new planning in the Department of Defense. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that China and Russia are exercising together in relation to Taiwan for the first time, and that “China definitely wants Russia to be working with them.” She then said, “we see no reason why they wouldn’t” work together. Answering a follow-up question from Senator Mike Rounds, Haines confirmed that in the event of a conflict with Russia or China, a second front opening with the other is possible, with the likelihood depending on the scenario. U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Jeffrey Kruse testified that Russian and Chinese military forces “would certainly be cooperative,” if not interoperable.

Xi eyes military supremacy as he reorganises China’s armed forces

Frederik Kelter

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China has been giving the democratic island of Taiwan – and the rest of the world – an indication of its growing military prowess in recent months.

In the run-up to Taiwan’s elections in January, the island’s information sphere was bombarded with coordinated cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control.

Following the inauguration of the Taiwanese government last month, Chinese military might was on full display as the Chinese armed forces surrounded Taiwan in two days of drills during which Chinese state media released an animated video showing missiles raining down on major Taiwanese cities.

After the exercises, a Chinese military spokesperson said the country’s armed forces remained fully prepared, highly vigilant and ready to take resolute action when it came to Taiwan.

The Russia-China-North Korea Trilateral Masks Hidden Differences

Hugo von Essen

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On Tuesday, June 18, Putin made his first official trip to North Korea since 2000 for talks with his fellow autocrat Kim Jong Un. The visit is Putin’s fourth foreign trip since his “re-election” in March, following visits to Beijing, Minsk, and Tashkent in May.

Russia and North Korea have seen their cooperation increase significantly during the past year. Politically, several high-level meetings have taken place, as Putin and Kim met in Vladivostok in September, North Korea’s Foreign Minister visited Moscow in January 2024, and Russia’s then-Defense Minister Shoigu went to Pyongyang in July 2023. Recently, North Korean state media called Putin the “Korean people’s best friend.”

In the military cooperation sphere, North Korea has provided Russia with a large amount of ammunition to bolster Russia’s war efforts, dwarfing the EU’s ammunition provisions to Ukraine so far. In return, Moscow has supported Pyongyang economically, technologically, and diplomatically. Interestingly, Russia has made a quick turn in its stance on North Korea, from supporting sanctions against Pyongyang as late as 2017 to blocking the renewal of North Korea sanctions monitors in March 2024.

Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons

Joseph Torigian

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On February 4, 2022, just before invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing, where he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a document that hailed a “no limits” partnership. In the two-plus years since, China has refused to condemn the invasion and helped Russia acquire materiel, from machine tools to engines to drones, crucial for the war effort. The flourishing partnership between Xi and Putin has raised serious questions in Western capitals. Is the alliance that linked Moscow and Beijing in the early Cold War back? The Russians and the Chinese have repeatedly dismissed such talk, but they have also asserted that their current partnership is more resilient than the days when they led the communist world together.

Xi would know. His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a high-level Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official whose own career was a microcosm of relations between Beijing and Moscow during the twentieth century, from the early days of the revolution in the 1920s and 1930s to the on-and-off help during the 1940s and the wholesale copying of the Soviet model in the 1950s, and from the open split of the 1960s and 1970s to the rapprochement in the late 1980s. The elder Xi’s dealings with Moscow showed the dangers of intimacy and enmity, how growing too close created unmanageable tensions that produced a costly feud. Understanding that history, the younger Xi by all appearances believes that the current relationship between Moscow and Beijing is indeed stronger than it was in the 1950s, and that he can avoid the strains that led to the earlier split.

Putin’s ‘War’ To Re-Shape The American Zeitgeist – OpEd

Alastair Crooke

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The G7 and the subsequent Swiss ‘Bürgenstock Conference’ can – in retrospect – be understood as preparation for a prolonged Ukraine war. The three centrepiece announcements emerging from the G7 – the 10 year Ukraine security pact; the $50 ‘billion Ukraine loan’; and the seizing of interest on Russian frozen funds – make the point. The war is about to escalate.

These stances were intended as preparation of the western public ahead of events. And in case of any doubts, the blistering belligerency towards Russia emerging from the European election leaders was plain enough: They sought to convey a clear impression of Europe preparing for war.

What then lies ahead? According to White House Spokesman John Kirby: “Washington’s position on Kiev is “absolutely clear”:

“First, they’ve got to win this war”.

“They gotta win the war first. So, number one: We’re doing everything we can to make sure they can do that. Then when the war’s over … Washington will assist in building up Ukraine’s military industrial base”.

Daghestan Attacks: What Happened And Why – Analysis

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At least 20 people were killed, including 15 police officers, according to Russia’s Investigative Committee, when gunmen attacked a synagogue, two Russian Orthodox churches, and police targets in the regional capital, Makhachkala, and the city of Derbent, some 120 kilometers to the south. Five gunmen were reportedly killed, while 16 people — including 13 police officers — were reportedly injured.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

The incident came in the context of Daghestan’s decades-long simmering unrest, with fuel thrown on the fire by Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Vilayat Kavkaz

The Russian authorities have not released the names of the five slain gunmen. However, Caucasus-related Telegram channels have identified two of them as sons of Magomed Omarov, a local district head and ruling United Russia party official who was promptly expelled over the incident. Another of the killed attackers was said to have been Omarov’s nephew. Omarov has reportedly been detained on suspicion of abetting terrorism.

Netanyahu appears to walk back remarks rejecting Biden cease-fire deal

NICK ROBERTSON

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday appeared to walk back comments he made the day before that seemed to reject a cease-fire deal President Biden backed in the Israel-Hamas war.

Netanyahu on Monday told the Knesset he was “committed” to the plan, in remarks that drew praise from the White House.

“We will not end the war until we return all of our hostages — 120 hostages, the living and the deceased. We are committed to the Israeli proposal, which President Biden has welcomed,” he said. “Our position has not changed.”

A day before, Netanyahu said he supported a “partial deal,” in comments that cast doubt about his support for Biden’s three-phased cease-fire proposal announced last month.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller welcomed Netanyahu’s message.

“I think all of us that speak publicly, at times, make mistakes and misspeak,” he told Al-Monitor. And when we do so, we have an obligation to come clarify, and we’re glad he did.”

The Geopolitical Imperative to Upgrade the Dollar

JORDAN BLEICHER and JOSH LIPSKY

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In a 1955 speech to a group of investment bankers, then-US Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin shared a story about an economics professor who always administered the same exam. When asked how any student could possibly fail such a test, the professor replied, “The questions don’t change, but the answers do.”

How Inclusive is ‘Inclusion’ When it Comes to Palestine? - Opinion

Dina Zbeidy

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On the 31st of March the New York Times reported on Hesen Jabr, a nurse who was fired after using the word genocide when referencing Gaza during an award ceremony speech. A labor nurse herself, she said the following when accepting her award: ‘It pains me to see the women from my country going through unimaginable losses themselves during the current genocide in Gaza…Even though I can’t hold their hands and comfort them as they grieve their unborn children and the children they have lost during this genocide, I hope to keep making them proud as I keep representing them here at NYU.’ According to a hospital spokesperson, Jabr was warned in December not to bring up her “views on this divisive and charged issue into the workplace.” The award ceremony was attended by many of Jabr’s colleagues, “some of whom were upset after her comments. As a result, Jabr is no longer an NYU Langone employee” said the spokesperson.

From the above we can deduct a number of things. First, Jabr was probably a very good employee, as she was given an award for her work. Second, it pained her to see so many Palestinian women losing their children, born and unborn. An issue that is probably close to her heart being a labor nurse herself. Third, she used the word ‘genocide’ to refer to what is going on in Gaza, in line with hundreds of genocide scholars and international rights institutions, who either argue that a genocide is already unfolding, or follow the ICJ’s warning of a plausible genocide. Fourth, the hospital deemed her words “divisive and charged”. Her words upset “some of her colleagues” and therefore, her firing was legitimate. Because some of Jabr’s colleagues were upset, Jabr got excluded in the most literal sense, losing her job.

The “Quagmire” Then and Now: Lessons for Combat in the Gaza Strip and for Decision Making from the IDF’s Presence in Lebanon Until its Withdrawal to the Awali in October 1983

Ofer Shelah & Yarden Assraf

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On August 31, 1982, about three months after the outbreak of the First Lebanon war, Yasser Arafat and thousands of PLO members (Yitzhak Shamir, then foreign minister, estimated their number to be 11,000)[1] left Beirut for Tunis and Syria. Thus, the declared mission of Operation Peace for Galilee was successfully achieved—of removing the rocket threat from northern Israel. But the IDF, as we know, did not redeploy south of the international border between Israel and Lebanon until 18 years later, after hundreds had been killed and three withdrawals had been declared. In September 1983, the IDF withdrew south of the Awali River; in 1985 to the “security zone,” where IDF and SLA forces fought Hezbollah; and in May 2000 to the international border. The number of IDF officers and soldiers killed during these 18 years has never been officially published, but according to verified estimates,[2] it reached 675 soldiers, which, together with the approximately 540 killed from June to September 1982, placed the cost of the campaign in Lebanon in its full sense at 1,217 casualties. About 250 of the soldiers were killed between September 1982 and the time of the withdrawal to the security zone in 1985.[3] The security price for Hezbollah’s growth and its becoming the enemy that poses the greatest threat to Israel on its borders, as well as the political, social, and internal military costs of remaining in Lebanon Israel continues to pay until this day.

Netanyahu says the war’s intensive phase is nearing an end, but fighting will continue.

Isabel Kershner

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The intensive phase of Israel’s war against Hamas is “about to end,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a Sunday night interview on Israeli television, although he emphasized that did not mean the conflict was coming to a close.

After the operation in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city and the latest focus of Israel’s ground offensive, the prime minister said, Israel would keep “mowing the lawn” — a term long used in Israeli security circles to denote the use of force aimed at curtailing the regrowth of militant organizations.

Mr. Netanyahu’s remarks were the latest suggestion by senior Israeli officials that the war could soon enter a period of change.

Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, was in Washington for meetings with Biden administration officials, which he said would include discussion of “the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza.”

The West Is Laser-Focused on Central Asia’s Middle Corridor. So Is China.

Wilder Alejandro Sánchez

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The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Kathleen Tai visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in mid-June, the first time a USTR has ever visited the Central Asian region. There, the U.S. co-chaired a U.S.-Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) Council meeting in Astana. The goal? Support the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), better known as the Middle Corridor, which aims to connect the region with the West, bypassing Russia via a route across the Caspian and through the Caucasus. In doing so, the region hopes to boost Western investment for more prosperity but also to balance off China and Russia.

Making the Middle Corridor efficient remains a challenge, and the World Bank has identified ten actions that can triple trade along the corridor by 2030. Winnie Wang, program leader for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank, discussed these suggestions at the recent Trans Caspian Forum in Washington, D.C. Specific proposals aimed at the Central Asian nodes and arteries of the Corridor include bypasses to reduce congestion in urban centers, a new railway to connect Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and acquiring modern equipment to increase berth capacity at Kazakhstan’s Aktau port.

The World Bank and others also strive to synchronize regional institutions and improve border management by digitizing systems to minimize wait times as cargo clears customs services. These improvements will have the added benefit of preventing extra-regional powers from pitting local actors against one another. The World Bank views the corridor as the “backbone for Central Asian and South Caucasus economic development.”

Big Gun War: The Ukraine Conflict Is 1 Massive Artillery Dual

Peter Suciu

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Ukraine's Missile Strike in Crimea: Tensions Soar After Sevastopol Attack

Russian authorities claim at least five people were killed and more than 100 injured after a Ukrainian missile strike on June 23 near Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea.

The Kremlin announced on Telegram that Kyiv carried out the attack using "U.S.-supplied ATACMS operational-tactical missiles equipped with cluster warheads."

The Russian Ministry of Defense says the strike "will not go unanswered," and Russia regularly targets Ukrainian population centers. Kyiv did not comment, but has previously said it would target Russian naval bases and vessels to isolate the peninsula.

Despite this weekend's strike, much of the fighting in Ukraine continues to be artillery duels – a fact that is little changed from two years ago. The war in the Donbas region evokes comparisons to the First World War, with massive trench lines, static defenses, and advances that are measured in yards, not miles.

Melting Point or Breaking Point?

Elaine McCusker

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In his book—The Melting Point—recently retired General Kenneth F. McKenzie gives us a unique glimpse into a world of history, strategy, and national decision-making from the singular perspective of a combatant commander.

His long military career and the lessons he draws from his three years (2019–2022) as the head of U.S. Central Command apply to the continuing challenges we currently face in three areas: 1) clearly communicating strategic guidance, 2) allocating resources to match that strategy, and 3) the importance of productive approaches to the pervasive, looming presence of Iran.

In recognizing and supporting the primacy of civilian control of the military, one of the book’s three overriding themes, it is important to reflect on the responsibilities that come with that control. Realistic national strategies accompanied by clear guidance and supporting resources are fundamental to those obligations. Yet, they are almost never forthcoming.

War Map Reveals All Russian Military Bases Within ATACMS Strike Range

Kate Plummer

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Amap has shown the Russian military bases in Ukraine that Army Tactical Missile Systems could strike with the U.S.'s permission.

ATACMS missiles are long-range missiles Ukraine has used during Russia's full-scale invasion of the country, which began in February 2022.

On June 22, the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, issued a campaign assessment that showed Ukraine could target some 16 percent of Russia's ground sanctuary if it had permission to use the missiles within a certain range.

Kyiv first used the missiles in October to strike two Russian military bases in Ukraine, damaging numerous helicopters. They have also been used by Kyiv's military on Russian targets in contested territory, including in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

What To Make of the Kim-Putin Meeting? | Opinion

Daniel R. DePetris

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What to make of Russian President Vladimir Putin's short stay in North Korea this week, where he greeted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un like a long lost brother and left Pyongyang with what the Russian leader termed a comprehensive strategic partnership?

The commentary thus far borders on the surreal. Victor Cha, a former National Security Council Asia policy director currently with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote that the summit "presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War." Others have suggested the confab was a direct assault on the integrity of the international order.

I view it less dramatically. In essence, this week's meeting between Kim and Putin was the culmination of a series of geopolitical circumstances that have brought the two together. Whether their bromance lasts over the long-term is still to be determined.

Unraveling the Gordian Knots: Gaza Conflict, Israeli Instability, and US Relations - opinion

SUSAN HATTIS ROLEF

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These days our general situation seems to be immersed in at least three interwoven Gordian knots. One concerns the lingering fighting in the Gaza Strip and the prospect of the current border confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah turning into a full-scale war. The second concerns the ongoing political instability and growing social tensions inside Israel. The third, which I shall touch upon very briefly, concerns a needed overhaul of Israel-US relations.

It is generally believed that the only way a full-scale war in Lebanon can be averted, and a settlement of the border confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah can be resolved (at least for the time being) is by means of an agreement between Israel and Hamas. Since such an agreement seems unlikely, because Israel refuses to accept some of the conditions laid down by Hamas, which refuses to become more flexible in its basic demands, the outbreak of a limited or full-scale war in the North seems to be unavoidable.

The IDF is believed to be preparing itself for this apparently inevitable escalation in the North, and for this purpose advocates the de-escalation of its activities in the Gaza Strip as soon as it will end its current operation in Rafah, limiting them to occasional interventions when the need arises. The military is also concerned with the fact that under the circumstances it must significantly increase the annual enlistment of 18-year-olds, which turns it into an active participant in the battle about the enlistment of haredim (the ultra-Orthodox) to full military service.

French Army Chief Forecasts End of Drone Dominance, Calls for Enhanced Defenses

Yuvraj Tyagi

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French Army Chief of Staff Gen. Pierre Schill delivered a stark assessment at the Eurosatory defence show in Paris, predicting the fleeting supremacy of small aerial drones on modern battlefields, exemplified notably in Ukraine. Speaking to reporters during a tour of the French Army stand, Schill emphasized the vulnerability of current anti-drone systems and the imperative for advancing countermeasures.

"Today, small, rudimentary drones enjoy a momentary advantage over battlefields, exploiting gaps in our defences," Schill stated. He highlighted that electronic warfare tactics have already claimed a significant toll, with 75% of drones in Ukraine succumbing to such measures.

Schill underscored the evolving landscape, noting, "The current era of drone impunity is temporary. We must adapt and enhance our defensive capabilities. The shield will soon outgrow the sword."

Cyberattacks are costly, and can be deadly: Cyber expert

RICH JOHNSON

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Cyberattacks have played havoc with the bottom lines of companies all over the world. They’re also starting to kill people.

Hackers “want to go attack folks who are going to pay,” said cybersecurity expert David Malicoat. “They want that money as quickly as possible.”

In one case earlier this year, a Michigan woman with low blood sugar went into cardiac arrest and died after a cyberattack targeted the system reporting lab results. A nurse in Kansas said confusing paperwork caused him to nearly give the wrong dose of a drug to a baby in neonatal intensive care.

Both incidents stemmed from an attack on Ascension, a Catholic health care system operating more than 140 facilities nationwide.

Emerging and Disruptive Technologies: New Weapons in the Making?

Allison Tan

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‘Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs)’ are a recent buzzword among the technology industry and state governments alike. The term refers to new and potentially cutting-edge technologies that are still in the early to middle stages of development (James 2013, 2). Currently, the most visible EDTs are arguably from the information technologies (IT) domain—as evidenced by the hype of commercially available artificial intelligence (AI) platforms like ChatGPT and Lensa AI. EDTs also exist beyond the IT realm, finding physical form in nanotechnologies, focused-energy technologies, bio-robotics, et cetera (Klare 2018, 11; James 2013, 2).

Besides consumers, EDTs have also taken defence industries by storm, especially due to the potential for EDTs to be adapted for military use. The integration of AI with weapons systems is already in development; observers fear that the resultant autonomous weapons systems (AWS) might not only jeopardise human control over lethal force but might also disrupt the logic of the present balance of power and nuclear stability (Klare 2018, 13). In the near future, focused-energy technologies and nanotechnologies could also create directed-energy weapons (DEW), armed swarming bots, and so on—each bearing the potential to become weapons of mass destruction (Borja 2023, 353; James 2013, 2).

Interview – Swati Srivastava

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Where do you see the most exciting research/debates happening in your field?

I find that the most exciting research is happening in two areas. The first is in relational approaches to IR that expand how we conceptualize power politics, order, rules, norms (see this debate), identity, practices, and ideas, such as in culture and finance. There are many other contributions to mention and more are still to come from emerging scholars in this space that enriches IR as a whole.

The second area is how technology changes and is changed by global politics in recent work that theorizes the blurring of state and corporate power, conducts studies of platforms like Wikipedia or technologies like blockchain, and identifies new governance dilemmas. I also foresee debates about artificial intelligence, currently occurring more robustly in other fields, spilling over to IR in the coming years.

How has the way you understand the world changed over time, and what (or who) prompted the most significant shifts in your thinking?

I was labeled a constructivist before I knew what it meant. At first, Alex Wendt became a guiding light for my thinking. If I had not encountered his work when I did, I would have left graduate school. As I progressed, Ian Hurd modelled how to read texts closely and find value succinctly. Other early inspirations are too many to list here, but I read broadly in the social sciences and humanities from anthropologists of the state to sociologists of law to classics in American political development and literary criticism.

AI’s Hidden Secret—Data Centers

Adrian Kranz

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As the public sphere brims with buzzwords like “AI” and “Crypto,” the national security community is still grappling with the implications of how the United States wields them as tools of statecraft.

Technology is always changing the global geopolitical power balance both militarily and economically. Cryptocurrency represents a potential threat to Washington’s favorite “big stick,” economic sanctions. For instance, Russian agents use Tether to circumvent sanctions and buy drone parts and weapons. Russia ends up being able to reap the benefits of a stable world-accepted currency while not having to play by the rules the United States dictates. This is setting a precedent that has been all but ignored by establishment politicians on both sides of the aisle. The National Security Agency is equipped to track some of these transactions. Yet, they cannot interfere with the flow of the currency, a particularly perplexing proposition for lawmakers with an, at best, cursory understanding of this particular mode of exchange.

Artificial Intelligence has created new predictive and early warning capabilities, such as predicting elections, crop growth, revenue flows, and military movements, all of which have sizable strategic and military implications. Small connected and AI-integrated military detachments are the future of effective warfare, and many nations are starting to take notice. Yet, the DOD has not made enough of an effort to procure and integrate AI into U.S. military operations. This places the military in a similar position to the early years of the War on Terror, completely unprepared to fight a new type of enemy that moved and fought faster than the top brass had imagined.

China could take control of Taiwan without firing shot: US think tank

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China's military could isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy, and compel the democratic island to submit to Beijing's Communist Party without firing a shot, CNN reported citing a Washington think tank.

There are concerns about the Communist Party's intentions to take control of Taiwan, potentially by force, have intensified due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's increasingly aggressive stance towards the self-governed island. China's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine has further fueled these fears.

According to CNN, analysts and military strategists said that there are two key options available to China - a full-scale invasion or a military blockade.

However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington highlights a third option: quarantine. This method, using "gray zone" tactics, involves actions just below the threshold of war. The China Coast Guard, its maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies could enforce a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, potentially cutting off access to its ports and essential supplies, such as energy, for the island's 23 million people.

US "Hellscape" Strategy - Sells Taiwan Cutting Edge "Attack Drone" Technology

Olawale Abaire

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In a significant development, the U.S. State Department has approved the sale of advanced suicide drones to Taiwan, with deliveries expected between 2024 and 2025. The deal includes up to 720 Switchblade 300 loitering munitions and up to 291 ALTIUS 600M-V unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), valued at approximately $300 million. This package marks the 15th arms sale to Taiwan under the Biden administration, reflecting a consistent effort to enhance Taiwan's military readiness.

According to an article in the Washingtonpost by Josh Rogin, U.S. Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, the new head of the Indo-Pacific Command, recently outlined a new strategy termed "Hellscape." This strategy involves deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, surface ships, and aerial drones to flood the Taiwan Strait in the event of a Chinese invasion. The goal is to create a hostile environment that delays Chinese advances and provides time for a coordinated defense by Taiwanese, U.S., and allied forces.

Adm. Paparo's vision is to turn the Taiwan Strait into an "unmanned hellscape" using classified capabilities, thereby making any Chinese military operation exceedingly difficult and costly. This approach aligns with the broader U.S. strategy of using technological superiority to offset numerical and geographical disadvantages.

How China could take Taiwan without even needing to invade

Brad Lendon

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China’s military could isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy, and make the democratic island succumb to the will of Beijing’s ruling Communist Party without ever firing a shot, a prominent think tank warns.

Fears the Communist Party might make good on its promise to one day take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary, have been heightened in recent years by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s increasingly bellicose actions towards the self-ruled island.

China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only added to those fears.

In such a scenario, analysts and military strategists have long focused on two key options available to China – a full-scale invasion or a military blockade.

But a Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), warns there is a third way, one that will make it far harder for the United States and other like-minded democracies to counter: Quarantine.

China Must Not Choose the Next Dalai Lama

BRAHMA CHELLANEY

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As the Dalai Lama – the spiritual leader of Tibet – visits the United States to receive medical treatment on his knees, concerns over who will succeed him have become acute. While Tibetans around the world pray that the 88-year-old Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama, still has plenty of life ahead of him, China is eagerly awaiting his demise, so that it can install a puppet successor.

Tibetans regard the Dalai Lama as the living incarnation of Buddha. Since 1391, the Dalai Lama has been reincarnated 13 times. When one Dalai Lama dies, the search for the next one begins, with a council of senior disciples taking responsibility for identifying him, based on signs and visions. But in recent years, the Chinese government has insisted that only it has the right to identify the next Dalai Lama.

This would not be the first time China selected a leader of Tibetan Buddhism. In 1995, it anointed its own Panchen Lama, whose spiritual authority is second only to that of the Dalai Lama, after abducting the actual Panchen Lama – a six-year-old boy who had already been confirmed by the Dalai Lama. Almost three decades later, the real Panchen Lama is among the world’s longest-serving political prisoners.

China’s drones are its greatest weapon in today’s information warfare - OPINION

ROB JOYCE

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I’ve spent a career studying and mitigating threats from our most significant adversaries, and it is clear the growing threat from Chinese-made drones is dire and underappreciated.

I couldn’t be happier to see members of Congress working across the aisle to rid the U.S. of these dangerous products. Across my decades of public service, including as the acting homeland security adviser for the U.S. National Security Council and director of cybersecurity for the National Security Agency, I recognize urgent threats to our nation when I see them. Chinese drones are one of the most significant intelligence and national security threats we currently face as a country.

When it comes to national security, drones have changed the game.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the expansive and exceptional capabilities of both large and small drones. The world has awakened to the power of these technical marvels. From the war’s earliest days, drones played a key role as intelligence collectors, becoming deadly spotters for artillery and irreplaceable for understanding adversary movements.

US proposes restrictions for investments in Chinese tech, AI

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The United States Department of the Treasury has fleshed out a proposed rule that would restrict and monitor US investments in China for artificial intelligence, computer chips and quantum computing.

The fleshed-out draft rule, issued on Friday, stems from President Joe Biden’s August executive order regarding the access that “countries of concern” have to American dollars to fund advanced technologies that could enhance those nations’ military, intelligence, surveillance and cyber-capabilities. The order identified China, Hong Kong and Macau as countries of concern.

The Biden administration has sought to stymie the development of technologies by China, the world’s second largest economy, that could give it a military edge or enable it to dominate emerging sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs).

In addition to the proposed rule, Biden, a Democrat, has also placed a stiff tariff on Chinese EVs, an issue with political implications as Biden and his Republican presidential opponent Donald Trump are both trying to show voters who can best stand up to China, a geopolitical rival and major trading partner.

China’s war with Taiwan is already underway

GREG C BRUNO

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The Shun Da was kilometers off course. Authorized by China’s Maritime Safety Administration to dredge the seafloor for a new bridge near Xiamen, the Chinese-flagged vessel was instead buzzing the Taiwanese coast guard on Taiwan’s Dadan Island, about 16 kilometers to the southwest.

“It’s not supposed to be here,” said Asheng, a deckhand aboard a Taiwanese tourist boat that guided a journalist through the restricted waterway – and within a few hundred meters of the Shun Da’s stern. “But it happens all the time,” he added.

As the People’s Liberation Army wrapped up two days of military exercises around Taiwan last month, which China’s military called a “dress rehearsal” for a full-scale assault, the self-governing island’s leaders were focused elsewhere: On the margins, in the dark spaces where Beijing’s “gray zone” tactics quietly encroach on Taiwanese sovereignty.

“It has become a regular reality that we have to deal with,” said one high-ranking government official who spoke on condition of anonymity to the sensitivity of the matter. “Not just the military drills and exercises but near daily encroachment” into Taiwan’s airspace, sea lanes and even its politics.

What the United States Can Learn From China

Stephen M. Walt

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In any competitive realm, rivals constantly strive to do better. They search for innovations that will improve their position and they strive to imitate whatever appears to be working for their opponents. We see this phenomenon in sports, in business, and in international politics. Emulation doesn’t mean one has to do exactly what others have done, but ignoring the policies from which others have benefited and refusing to adapt is a good way to keep losing.

Xi Jinping's Aggressive Talk About Taiwan Is Hiding a Reluctance to Act | Opinion

Gordon G. Chang

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The Financial Times on Saturday reported that Xi Jinping in April of last year told European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the U.S. was, in the words of the paper, "trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan." The Chinese leader described the U.S. tactic as a "trick," but the FT reported that he said he "would not take the bait."

As Brussels-based Theresa Fallon of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies told me in response to the FT report, Xi is "sounding increasingly unhinged."

We do not know if the Chinese leader believed what he said or why he said it. We can say, however, that none of the explanations are good.

There are many possible reasons for the Chinese ruler's startling comment. For one thing, he may be simply out of touch. "If Xi genuinely believes that the U.S. actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true," said Jude Blanchette of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies to the FT. "Whatever the explanation for Xi's comments, it's clear that the decision-making environment—and the information feeding into it—is being warped, either by Xi's lieutenants, or by his own autocratic behavior."

The Evolution of Empire

JOHN ANDREWS

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With the just-concluded G7 summit exposing the group’s diminished status, it is appropriate to ask where power lies in today’s world. The United Nations has 193 member states (the most recent, which joined in 2011, is benighted South Sudan), all of which are, as Secretary-General António Guterres put it in 2016, technically committed to “the values enshrined in the UN Charter: peace, justice, respect, human rights, tolerance and solidarity.” But while each gets one vote in the General Assembly, nobody would dare claim that each country carries equal weight.

Instead, the five permanent members of the Security Council – the United States, China, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom – reign supreme, each wielding a veto over whatever the other 192 members might want. That is why Israel, owing to US support, can blithely ignore countless UN resolutions, and why Syria, owing to Russian and Chinese support, handily escaped sanctions for its use of chemical weapons a decade ago.

Owing to the disproportionate power they wield, the “Permanent Five” share an old, decidedly British sense of empire. While the authors of two recent books on empire, Lawrence James and Nandini Das, offer no thoughts on how the UN might – or indeed should – be reformed, I suspect that they would agree.