Lawrence Freedman
Rambling it might have been, but Donald Trump’s speech at Riyadh on 13 May, and the themes of his visit to the Gulf states, illuminates his overall approach to foreign policy as well as its application to the current situation in the Middle East.
It is far away from the preoccupations of past presidents, notably George W Bush and his ‘war on terror’ and active promotion of democracy and human rights. It does not see the world in terms of a clash of ideologies and political values so much as a battle for markets and deals. The victories and defeats are to be found in the economic as much as the political sphere.
This philosophy is not particular to Trump but few political leaders have embraced it so enthusiastically. It is also the case that a concatenation of events have given his approach a validity that it might not otherwise have had. The sudden decline of Iran as a regional power, as well as the economic rise of the Gulf states, along with Israel’s inability to extract itself from the cruel logic of its war with Hamas, has shaped the policies he is currently adopting.
In his first term Trump inherited some of the features of the old geopolitical approach, not least because of his advisers, but his impatience with it was evident, especially when it came to the obligations imposed by long-standing alliances. He still can’t quite escape from past commitments and political relationships, including in Europe, however much he’d like to. So his strong geoeconomic view is superimposed on top of a fading geopolitical view.
As his tariffs policy has demonstrated, his geoeconomic view can be simplistic to the point of absurd naiveté. It does not reflect a sophisticated approach to supply chains and financial flows, and can be as crude in identifying threats and misbehaviour in the economic sphere as his predecessors could be in the political sphere, and as clumsy in seeking remedies.
But at its heart is a belief that for states as much as much as individuals, power stems from wealth and this power can be used to do deals which can make you even richer. That is the key metric of success.
No comments:
Post a Comment