Han Feizi
History has multiple equilibria. Seemingly stable arrangements can turn on a dime. “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” Vladimir Lenin wrote in 2017, his last year in exile.
Or, as President Xi Jinping said at the door of the Kremlin after a 2023 meeting with Vladimir Putin, “Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years.” Within earshot of the press, President Xi slyly added, “and we are the ones driving these changes together.”
Let us not beat around the bush: We’re talking to you, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The changes that President Xi was referring to are the collapse of America’s alliance system and, along with it, the collapse of the rules-based international order.
Every nation should be prepared. The savviest actors will front-run events. When President Xi said “we are the ones driving these changes,” it was an open invitation to bet on and become part of the “we.”
Fast forward to 2025 and trends have only accelerated. President Trump, in his second term, has gratuitously insulted Europe, strong-armed Panama, threatened to annex Greenland and Canada and launched a chaotic trade war on the world.
This is not 4D chess, people. This is President Trump using whatever is left of American power to kick over the chessboard, hoping the scattered pieces magically rearrange themselves in advantageous positions. It is also sheer madness.
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