Stefan Messingschlager
When Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, many in the West still hoped that deepening economic ties would eventually nudge China toward liberalization. Over a decade later, that optimism is gone. China has become more authoritarian domestically, increasingly assertive internationally, and notably more difficult to predict. In 2018,
U.S. analysts Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner famously declared in Foreign Affairs that the decades-long strategy of engagement with China had failed. Their blunt assessment catalyzed a strategic rethink in Washington – one that gave China specialists a seat at the strategic policy table.
Europe, by contrast, has struggled to make the same adjustment. While its leaders increasingly view China as a “systemic rival,” most European capitals still treat China expertise as a background resource, not a strategic asset. The result is a dangerous “China expertise gap” that undermines Europe’s coherence, credibility, and capacity to respond decisively to Beijing’s global assertiveness. Closing this gap is now a strategic imperative.
The U.S. Model: Institutionalizing Expertise as Infrastructure
The United States demonstrates vividly how institutionalizing China expertise can significantly strengthen national strategy. Leading think tanks – including the Council on Foreign Relations, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, and the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis – act as talent pipelines, where analysts routinely rotate into government roles. Under the Biden administration, this integration deepened further. In late 2022, the State Department launched “China House,” a dedicated coordination hub bringing together experts across regional and functional bureaus to sharpen China policy.
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