7 July 2025

Two Wars, One Axis: How the Israel–Iran Conflict Echoes in Ukraine

Igor Desyatnikov

As Israel escalated its campaign against Iran’s nuclear and proxy networks, the shockwaves are felt far beyond the Middle East. Thousands of kilometers away, Iranian-supplied Shahed drones continue to strike Ukrainian cities—a grim reminder that these two seemingly distinct conflicts are tightly interwoven. The wars may differ in their origins and immediate objectives, but they are bound by a strategic partnership between two revisionist powers: Iran and Russia.

Both regimes share a vision of overturning the Western-led liberal order, albeit in different theaters. Iran seeks to dominate the Middle East by empowering a constellation of proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis—and displacing US and Israeli influence. Russia,

 for its part, aims to reconfigure the European security architecture and reestablish itself as the center of a multipolar world order carved into spheres of influence. Though their ambitions diverge in geography and scope, their alliance is one of mutual benefit — militarily, diplomatically, and symbolically.

Last month’s violence offers a potent example of that convergence. Iranian Shahed drones have targeted civilians in Israel, just as identical models have rained down on Ukrainian neighborhoods. Tehran has exported thousands of these drones to Moscow, helping sustain Russia’s war effort even as its domestic military production falters. These are not coincidental parallels—they are evidence of an integrated effort to weaken Western allies across regions through asymmetrical warfare.

The parallels are not just strategic — they are visual. Around the world, newspapers and television screens are filled with images of ruined apartment blocks in both Kyiv and Tel Aviv, often side by side. Civilians in both cities have been targeted by the same model of drone wielded by two authoritarian regimes acting in concert. The symbolism is hard to ignore: the same weapon, the same tactic, and the same message of defiance against the liberal democratic order.

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