Shawn Rostker
Open conflict has erupted between India and Pakistan, once again raising the possibility of nuclear confrontation. Indian missile strikes into Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir have resulted in eight deaths, according to Pakistani officials. At the same time, Islamabad claims to have shot down two (or more) Indian fighter jets over its territory. Shelling and heavy gunfire have also broken out along the Line of Control (LOC), the heavily militarized de facto border that divides Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of Kashmir.
Pakistan’s defense minister has said a “forceful response is being given.” As fighting intensifies, the United States now faces a narrow but urgent opportunity that requires modest, focused diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation, reinforce U.S. credibility, and avoid much higher costs in areas beyond South Asia later.
The outbreak follows weeks of rising tensions that began after a deadly terrorist attack in the town of Pahalgam in Kashmir, which India attributed to militants linked to Pakistani intelligence. New Delhi initially responded by “test-firing” several anti-ship missiles and announcing plans to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a move that triggered panic in parts of Pakistan where water is scarce. Pakistan then escalated its rhetoric with unusual directness, stating that any attempt to cease water flows would constitute an “act of war.” Islamabad followed up with threats to launch ballistic missiles at India and by suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement that established the LOC and committed both sides to resolve the Kashmir dispute peacefully.
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