Robert Kelly
The Ukraine War Just Won’t End
US President Donald Trump entered office insisting he would end the Ukraine war rapidly (in one day). His initial approach was to pressure Ukraine into substantial concessions while demanding little of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s logic appeared to be that Putin was his friend and would respond in good faith.
Trump also seems to have absorbed Putin’s narrative of the war. Trump does not seem to grasp that Putin started the conflict, that Ukraine is the defender, not the aggressor, and that Russian behavior in the war has been appalling.
Indeed, Trump offered Putin such a good deal that it is surprising that Putin did not take it. Trump offered de facto recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, de facto recognition of Putin’s conquests since 2022, rollback of US sanctions on Russia’s economy, and no US security commitment to Ukraine.
This deal is excellent for Moscow. It would give the Russian army and economy a much-needed breather. Russia’s military has not fared well in the war; its casualty estimates are close to one million dead and wounded. Russia’s economy is now hyper-militarized and needs to return to a civilian footing eventually.
A ceasefire with no security commitment would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian attack a few years later.
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