Francis Pike
Yesterday evening Indian prime minister Narendra Modi authorised missile strikes on jihadi training camps located in Pakistan’s East Punjab and Pakistani Kashmir. It is retaliation for the attack on Hindu tourists allegedly carried out by the Pakistani Jihadi groups Lashkar-e-Taibi and Jaish-e-Muhammad in Indian controlled Kashmir on 22 April.
Does this mean all-out war between the two nuclear powers is inevitable? Not necessarily. Since Indian partition, the perennial casus belli in the subcontinent there have been three major wars between India and Pakistan. The First Indo-Pakistan War (1947-1948) and the Second Indo-Pakistan War (1965) were both fought over the Kashmir issue.
The third Indo-Pakistan War of 1977 was fought over Bangladesh. The result of the conflict won by India enabled Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, to achieve independence.
A fourth, the Kargil War, in 1999 is better characterised as a mini-war, which followed Islamist militant and regular army infiltration of high-altitude mountains in Indian-administered Kashmir.
However, smaller military border clashes have been a constant. Fighting over the Siachen Glacier has been continuous since 1984. Artillery exchanges also occurred in 2016 and 2019. This last clash followed India’s revocation of Article 370 which had previously given Kashmir semi-autonomous status. Kashmir is now a ‘normal’ Indian state.
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