The Evolving Dynamics of China’s Middle East and North Africa Strategy: Future Scenarios

Meia Nouwens, Henry Boyd, Erik Green, Wolf-Christian Paes & Albert Vidal Ribe

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China’s engagement with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has evolved since it established diplomatic relations with countries in the region during the latter half of the twentieth century, from a predominantly bilateral approach to one incorporating both bilateral and multilateral cooperation. As countries in the MENA region seek to diversify their economies away from hydrocarbon exports and balance their security partnerships with the United States, they are increasingly turning to China as a partner of choice.

As China seeks to play an even greater normative role in reshaping the international order through its Three Major Initiatives (三大倡议) – the Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative – and continues to pursue a high-tech advanced economy, its relationship with the MENA region will remain important for the foreseeable future. China also sees the region as an opportunity to showcase to the world, and particularly to Global South countries, the success of the ‘China model’ for governance, economic development and multilateralism.

China’s current strategy regarding the region is driven by four strategic principles:

• Achieving China’s national rejuvenation and ensuring regime security (including by supporting China’s economic model, securing hydrocarbon supply, advancing China’s strategic aims through financial resilience building, and deepening security and defence cooperation with the region);
• Building a Sino-centric multipolar world order with China’s interests and values at the centre (by expanding MENA states’ membership in existing multilateral forums and organisations and thereby bolstering China’s position and influence in these spaces);
• Establishing China’s position as a moral leader of the Global South, particularly through symbolic and rhetorical support; and
• Showcasing the success of the China model to both domestic and global audiences.