30 November 2024

Political Priorities, Poor Intelligence Tradecraft and the Suppression of Dissenting Views: Why Israel Failed to Warn of Hamas’s October 7 Attack

Larry Hanauer, Michael P. Connell

Although Israeli intelligence had collected intelligence that Hamas was preparing for an attack, senior officials ignored analysts' warnings. Had Israeli decisionmakers paid more attention to warning intelligence, the conflict would likely have been significantly contained. Lessons from an analysis of Israeli warning intelligence failures can inform future Israeli and U.S. Intelligence Community training, tradecraft and analysis to warn of strategically important events.

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