Lawrence Freedman
A ceasefire coming into force between Israel and Hezbollah comes as a relief and a rare bit of good news. In announcing it President Biden expressed hope that even during his final weeks in office this might be followed by yet more good news - in particular a ceasefire in Gaza and even more progress on the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Saudi Arabia.
After over a year of violence between Israel and all the members of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ is it possible that a corner might be turned, and that a virtuous cycle of conflict resolution is about to be set in motion? Might the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah be the start of a more hopeful trend?
Hamas has been left isolated, and with no reason to suppose that Donald Trump is going to be any more sympathetic to their cause, they may decide to call out a day and scale back their conditions for a ceasefire in Gaza, thereby making it possible to start meeting the urgent challenges of humanitarian relief while addressing the larger challenges of governance and reconstruction. Without more progress on these challenges, and recognition of Palestinian political aspirations, progress on Saudi-Israeli relations will be more of a stretch. Yet that is not the only big idea around at the moment. If the mood really turns to optimism then perhaps it might even be possible to get the US and Iran negotiating again.
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