US air strikes on Syria would face formidable obstacles

Aug 28, 2014

American forces face formidable challenges as President Barack Obama considers an air assault on Islamist fighters in Syria.

WASHINGTON: American forces face formidable challenges as President Barack Obama considers an air assault on Islamist fighters in Syria, including intelligence gaps on potential targets, concerns about Syria's air defenses and fears that the militants may have anti-aircraft weapons, current and former US officials say.

 

The Pentagon began preparing options for an assault on Islamic State fighters after the militants last week posted a gruesome video showing the beheading of American photojournalist James Foley. Deliberations by Obama's national security team on expanding the campaign against Islamic State from Iraq into neighboring Syria gathered pace in recent days, officials say. 

While it is unclear how soon strikes might be launched, Obama's go-ahead for aerial reconnaissance over Syria has raised expectations he will approve the attacks rather than back off as he did last year after threatening to strike Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces. 

Any air offensive would likely focus on Islamic State's leadership and positions around the city of Raqqa in their stronghold of eastern Syria, and border areas that have served as staging grounds for Islamist forces that have swept into Iraq and taken over a third of the country. 

But every option carries significant risk. 

"There are all kinds of downsides and risks that suggest air strikes in Syria are probably not a great idea," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser under both Republican and Democratic administrations. "But that doesn't mean they won't happen anyway." 

Efforts to hit the right targets in Syria will be more difficult than in Iraq, hindered by a shortage of reliable on-the-ground intelligence, in contrast to northern Iraq where Iraqi and Kurdish forces provided intelligence. 

US-backed moderate rebels who could provide intelligence in Syria have yet to coalesce into a potent fighting force. It is unclear, for instance, if they can provide forward spotters needed to help guide any air strikes in territory held by Islamic State. 

Russian-built air defenses 

Syria's Russian-built air defense system is another concern. It remains largely intact more than three years into the country's civil war. 

Assad may opt not to use it, mindful that he could benefit from a US assault on Islamic State. He has struggled to fend off advances by the radical offshoot of al Qaeda, which has taken three Syrian military bases in northeast Syria in recent weeks, boosted by arms seized in Iraq. 

He could also face US retaliation for any Syrian government interference in a US air campaign. 

Of greater concern to Western military planners is anti-aircraft weaponry Islamic State fighters might have acquired. 

"Flying aircraft over Syria is very different than in Iraq," said Eric Thompson, senior strategic studies analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, which advises the US military as part of the CNA Corp think tank in Virginia. "There are more sophisticated air defenses, some in the hands of ISIS," he added, using an alternative name for Islamic State. 

In a recent report, Small Arms Survey, an independent research group based in Geneva, detailed a range of shoulder-launched missile systems in the hands of the militants. Known as MANPAD, or man-portable air defense systems, some were apparently stolen from government stockpiles while others were supplied from outside sources in other countries. 

Intelligence gaps 

The Pentagon has publicly conceded it has less-than-perfect information about the movements and capabilities of Islamic State fighters, a limitation reflected in a failed attempt by US special forces to rescue Foley in July. 

Intelligence gaps raise the risk of civilian casualties from any US air strikes in Syria, especially given that the militants are highly mobile and intermingle with the civilian population in urban areas like Raqqa. 

From unmanned armed drones to powerful Stealth bombers, a wide range of US airpower is at Obama's disposal, including possible missiles fired from warships at sea or from aircraft flying outside Syria's borders. 

Drones, Obama's weapon of choice in the fight against al Qaeda in Pakistan and Yemen, could also be used, but possibly more for surveillance than missile strikes. Given the risk of missed targets and civilian casualties, US forces typically prefer to operate drones in tandem with intelligence operatives on the ground. 

Islamic State leaders' use of encryption in communications is highly sophisticated and hinders efforts to track them, according to US officials familiar with the group's tactics. As a result, Islamic State leaders such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi are expected to be hard to find.

US openly accuses Russia of sending combat troops to Ukraine

Aug 29, 2014

President Barack Obama again ruled out US military action, saying there must be a diplomatic solution. But he said he would reaffirm US commitment to Nato allies in the region at a summit next week.

WASHINGTON: The United States openly accused Russia on Thursday of sending combat forces into Ukraine and threatened to tighten economic sanctions, but Washington stopped short of calling Moscow's intensified support for separatist forces an invasion. 

President Barack Obama again ruled out US military action, saying there must be a diplomatic solution. But he said he would reaffirm US commitment to Nato allies in the region at a summit next week. 

"We are not taking military action to solve the Ukrainian problem. What we're doing is to mobilize the international community to apply pressure on Russia," he told reporters at the White House. 

After days in which pictures appeared of Russian soldiers in uniform and Russian weapons in action in a renewed offensive against Ukrainian troops, Washington brushed aside Moscow's disavowals of direct involvement in the fighting. 

"Russia has ... stepped up its presence in eastern Ukraine and intervened directly with combat forces, armored vehicles, artillery, and surface-to-air systems, and is actively fighting Ukrainian forces as well as playing a direct supporting role to the separatists' proxies and mercenaries," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told a media briefing. 

"We have a range of tools at our disposal" to respond, she said, and added that increased sanctions on Russia were "the most effective tool, the best tool." 

At an emergency meeting of the UN security council, US ambassador Samantha Power poured scorn on Moscow's declarations that its forces were not involved in Ukraine. "It has manipulated. It has obfuscated. It has outright lied," she said. 

"The mask is coming off. In these acts, these recent acts, we see Russia's actions for what they are: a deliberate effort to support, and now fight alongside, illegal separatists in another sovereign country." 

British U.N. Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant told the meeting: 

"Formed units of the armed forces of the Russian federation are now directly engaged in fighting inside Ukraine against the armed forces of Ukraine. These units consist of well over 1,000 regular Russian troops equipped with armored vehicles, artillery and air defense systems." 

Russian response 

Russia's UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, responded: "There are Russian volunteers in eastern parts of Ukraine. No one is hiding that." Moscow has said some Russians have, in their own time, gone to Ukraine to support the cause of the separatists. 

Churkin said he had a message for the United States: "Stop interfering in the internal affairs of sovereign states." 

Obama, who will visit Russia's tiny neighbor Estonia before attending a Nato summit in Wales next Thursday and Friday, said Russian President Vladimir Putin had ignored opportunities to find a diplomatic solution. 

In Estonia, he said he would "reaffirm our unwavering commitment to the defense of our Nato allies." 

The White House said Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko would meet with Obama at the White House on Sept. 18 in a visit that "will highlight the United States' firm commitment to stand with Ukraine as it pursues democracy, independence, and stability." 

Obama spoke by phone on Thursday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has played a big role trying to resolve the crisis. The White House said the two agreed the United States and Europe should consider more sanctions. 

Pentagon and Intel Community Frustrated by White House “Dithering” on Going After ISIS

Nancy A. Youssef, Jonathan S. Landay and Lesley Clark

August 27, 2014

Obama weighs risks of attacking jihadists in Syria

WASHINGTON — Amid growing pressure to act, President Barack Obama on Tuesday cautioned that defeating the Islamic State would take time, even as some Pentagon officials expressed frustration with what they decried as White House foot-dragging on striking the militant group’s Syria sanctuaries.

With U.S. aircraft pressing attacks on Islamic State fighters in Iraq, the administration confronted mounting questions about how it would deal with the al Qaida’s spinoff’s presence on Syria’s side of the border. That is a far more complex goal because any setback dealt the group in Syria could benefit Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose ouster is official U.S. policy.

Senior Pentagon officials have been conferring with the White House on hitting Islamic State targets just inside eastern Syria, from where the group launched an atrocity-filled offensive in mid-June that overran roughly half of Iraq and brought it to the outskirts of Baghdad, said two U.S. Defense officials.

The White House, however, has yet to request a formal proposal, said the Defense officials, who expressed frustration over what both separately called the administration’s “dithering.” They spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the issue publicly.

“The targets would be similar to the ones we struck in Iraq,” said one of the officials, referring to the Islamic State combat vehicles, artillery positions and checkpoints that the U.S. has hit in nearly 100 airstrikes in northern Iraq since Aug. 8.

The officials compared the current situation to Obama’s hesitancy nearly one year ago to make good on a threat to attack Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal after what the United States and its allies charged were regime nerve gas attacks that killed hundreds of civilians.

The administration contends that by withholding those strikes, the United States and Russia were able to broker a deal under which Assad surrendered nearly all of his chemical weapons stocks. But critics portrayed Obama’s decision as a retreat that made the United States look weak, boosted Assad’s international standing, hurt the moderate Syrian rebel movement and spurred new recruits and funding for the Islamic State and other Islamist groups fighting the Syrian leader.

Obama has come under mounting pressure to act against the Islamic State inside Syria since the group posted a video a week ago showing the beheading of American freelance journalist James Foley. The subsequent bellicose reactions by senior administration officials and assertions that the Islamic State can’t be defeated unless it’s hit in Syria boosted expectations that U.S. airstrikes were imminent.

ISIS Has Reportedly Captured Advanced Shoulder-Fired Surface-to-Air Missiles From Syrian Army

Thomas Gibbons-Neff

August 26, 2014

Islamic State might have taken advanced MANPADS from Syrian airfield

A Man Portable Air Defense System is seen in this undated file photo. (AP Photo/Small Arms Survey) 

Islamic State militants stormed a Syrian airbase over the weekend, routing the remaining elements of the country’s army from northern Raqqah province and reportedly seizing a cache of shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles. 

The seizure of Tabqa air base, while not the first installation of its type to fall to militants, highlights the Islamic State’s gains in the region and the group’s continued pilfering of advanced military equipment, particularly the surface-to-air missile systems known as MANPADS, short for Man Portable Air Defense Systems. 

Matt Schroeder, a senior researcher at the Switzerland-based research group Small Arms Survey and author of a recent report on MANPADS in Syria, believes that the takeover of Tabqa airbase could mark a “significant proliferation” of the weapons across the region. 

“What we do know from previous airfield seizures is that these places are a source of MANPADS and similar weapons,” Schroeder said. 

It is difficult to independently confirm that Islamic State seized MANPADS from Tabqa. Charles Lister, an analyst at Brookings Doha Center who has tracked the flow of weapons in the region, tweeted a photo that purportedly showed an Islamic State fighter wielding what appeared to be MANPADS. 

Schroeder did not know the model of the system but noted it has the characteristics of an SA-18 and other Soviet MANPADS. 

Another Netanyahu Goof: Attempt to Link Hamas and ISIS Flops on the World Stage

August 26, 2014

Israel leader tries to link Hamas, Iraq extremists

FILE - In this Tuesday, July 22, 2014, file photo, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint news conference with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in Tel Aviv, Israel, regarding the Israel-Hamas war. A day after the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, posted the video of American journalist James Foley’s killing, Netanyahu debuted his latest catchphrase: “Hamas is ISIS. ISIS is Hamas.” He has continued to repeat the slogan at news conferences, on Twitter and even at his weekly Cabinet meeting Sunday, Aug. 24. Hamas itself condemned Netanyahu’s comparison, saying its battle is against Israel, not against the entire West. (AP Photo/Dan Balilty, File) 

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s prime minister is trying to capitalize on the gruesome video of an American journalist’s beheading by the Islamic State extremist group, saying Hamas is an equally vicious foe as he tries to rally international support in Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip. But the comparisons between Hamas and Islamic State are being met with reservations by Israel’s allies and enemies alike.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu always has prided himself on his ability to attract media attention. Netanyahu, who grew up in the U.S. and speaks fluent English, often uses catchy quips, props or visual aids in public speeches or briefings to journalists.

A day after the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, posted the video of journalist James Foley’s killing, Netanyahu debuted his latest catchphrase: “Hamas is ISIS. ISIS is Hamas.” He voiced the slogan at a news conference, on Twitter and even at his weekly Cabinet meeting Sunday.

As Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza nears its eighth week, Netanyahu is fighting an uphill battle for international support. While the international community generally supports Israel’s right to defend itself against indiscriminate rocket fire, the world has grown increasingly uncomfortable with the scenes coming out of Gaza.

New Details Revealed About 1974 U.S. Covert Action Plan to Prevent Portugal From Going Communist

August 26, 2014

CIA acted to shape Portugal’s post-revolutionary political scene

The US State Department approved its first clandestine operational plan for Portugal on 27th September 1974 with the stated aim of “avoiding the communists taking power” according to documents publicly released on their 40th anniversary.

This is the first time ever that there has been formal acknowledgement of such actions decided upon by the 40 Committee that oversaw all such operations including those run by the CIA.

However, there is unlikely to be any major local fallout from the revelations as the Portuguese politicians, parties and organisations involved in such operations are not only not named, with any reference from the now declassified version deleted but also only ever described vaguely.

The timing of 27th September proves significant as this was on the eve of the coup by the Movimento das Forças Armadas (MFA), a left-leaning faction of the armed forces, that brought down the government on 30th September.

The specifics remain undetailed but the documents do report that the then State Secretary Henry Kissinger felt the MFA was in close coordination with the communists and referring to “strengthening the Socialist Party” and backing “the development of a centrist party to work in coalition with the socialists to defeat the Communist Party.”

The documents released also state how Kissinger called for the infiltration of the MFA before a 20th January 1975 meeting renewed the operations ongoing and decided to advance with further clandestine operations in Portugal “whether or not there are leaks of information” as President Gerald Ford is quoted as saying.

The level of attention on Portugal did not slip with the 40 Committee later approving another document “to protect the gains of moderates” in the wake of elections held in late April 1975.

Once the Friend of the Islamist Militants, Turkey Now Struggling to Prevent New Recruits From Reaching ISIS in Syria

August 26, 2014 

Turkey struggles as “lone gatekeeper” against Islamic State recruitment 

Fighters of al-Qaeda linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant parade at the Syrian town of Tel Abyad, near the border with Turkey January 2, 2014.

(Reuters) - As Islamic State insurgents threaten the Turkish border from Syria,Turkey is struggling to staunch the flow of foreign jihadists to the militant group, having not so long ago allowed free access to those who would join its neighbour’s civil war. 

Thousands of foreign fighters from countries including Turkey, Britain, parts of Europe and the United States are believed to have joined the Islamist militants in their self-proclaimed caliphate, carved out of eastern Syria and western Iraq, according to diplomats and Turkish officials. 

The militants, who seized an air base in northeast Syria on Sunday as they surge northwards, are trying to secure control of the area bordering Turkey above the city of Raqqa, their major stronghold, in a bid to further ease the passage of foreign fighters and supplies, sources close to Islamic State said. 

Some of the foreign fighters in their midst reached Syria via Turkey, entering the region on flights to Istanbul or Turkey’s Mediterranean resorts, their Western passports giving them cover among the millions of tourists arriving each month in one of the world’s most visited countries. 

From Turkey, crossing the 900 km (560-mile) frontier into northern Syria was long relatively straightforward, as the Turkish authorities maintained an open border policy in the early stages of the Syrian uprising to allow refugees out and support to the moderate Syrian opposition in. 

That policy now appears to have been a miscalculation and has drawn accusations, strongly denied by the Turkish government, that it has supported militant Islamists, inadvertently or otherwise, in its enthusiasm to help Syrian rebels topple President Bashar al-Assad. 

The rapid and brutal advance of Islamic State, bent on establishing a hub of jihadism in the centre of the Arab world and on Turkey’s southern fringe, has alarmed Ankara and its Western allies, forcing them to step up intelligence sharing and tighten security cooperation. 

Covert Action Plan for Preventing Portugal From Going Communist

The following is a verbatim copy of a formerly classified document just published in a new volume of the State Department’s acclaimed Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) series entitled “Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, Volume E-15, Part 2, Documents on Western Europe, 1973-1976.”, which can be accessed here. 

This is a proposal for covert action designed to maintain a stable government in Portugal, which will permit continued U.S. use of the Azores Base, and honor Portugal’s membership in NATO. It is a two-part program: an exploratory phase will be completed before December 31, 1974; the major implementation phase would begin in late 1974 and be highly concentrated during the first three months of 1975, leading up to the March constituent assembly elections. These covert activities would be complementary to an overall U.S. Government program with the same basic objective. This program follows from General Walters’ fact-finding trip to Portugal in August 1974. During this trip, General Walters discussed his observations with ranking Embassy officials, and, subsequently, with the Secretaries of State and Defense. If all the courses of action contemplated are necessary, it is estimated that this program will cost about [dollar amount not declassified]. There are early indications that the Soviets will fund the Communist campaign in Portugal. We estimate that the PCP will have massive funds available and that the campaigns for Communist candidates, under the PCP or other banners, will be highly sophisticated and well financed. A report of the projects initiated and further recommendations based on our assessment by the end of the exploratory phase (December 31, 1974), will be submitted to the 40 Committee. This report will also include a full plan for the March 1975 constituent assembly elections. 

2. Proposal 

A. During the coming three months of the exploratory phase of this program, the Agency will undertake traditional intelligence activities directed primarily against the four key elements of political power in Portugal—the Movement of the Armed Forces (MFA), the Government, the political parties and the labor sector. 

[Omitted here are details of the exploratory stage of the program.] 

D. Implementation Stage: If, as a result of our exploratory effort, we feel that a political action program is needed and would be effective, it could include the following types of activities: 

Obama's Iraq-Syria Dilemma: No Force Now on the Ground Can Beat ISIS

Jamie Dettmer

08.26.14

If Washington is counting on the Kurds to defeat the terrorist caliphate with a little support from American drones and warplanes, it had better think again.

Back when the Obama administration was contemplating retaliation against the Syrian government for using chemical weapons, Secretary of State John Kerry sought to assuage worries that America would become ensnared in Syria’s civil war by promising that any reprisals would be “unbelievably small”—a matter of pinprick airstrikes. In the event Russian diplomatic maneuvering let the administration off the hook.

In Iraq today the administration has committed to doing something against the forces of the so-called Islamic State, but the limited military intervention we’ve seen to date lags far behind the bellicose rhetoric of Obama officials since the murder of American journalist James Foley. Once again, we see the same reluctance that was on display about retaliation against Syrian President Bashar al Assad for spreading toxins. Fear of mission creep, fear of putting American boots on the ground, and excessive faith in the wonders of American military technology contribute to a fatal and contradictory combination of excessive caution and excessive confidence.

The gap between rhetoric and action was on vivid display this weekend with pinprick U.S. strikes in northern Iraq. “Bombing raids could significantly weaken IS but they are insufficient currently,” says Jonathan Schanzer, a Mideast analyst with the Washington, D.C.-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He says a “surge in sorties” is needed to meet even the limited administration goal of reining in the jihadists.

Consider this bottom line: Weekend strikes from U.S. warplanes defending the Kurdish capital, Erbil, and the recently retaken Mosul Dam managed to destroy a jihadist Humvee and an armed vehicle, according to U.S. Central Command. Meanwhile jihadists from the Islamic State scored a major advance in neighboring Syria by finally capturing the air base at Tabqa, the last military stronghold of the Syrian government in Raqqa province, and pressing assaults against more moderate rebels in northern Aleppo province, threatening to cut all-important supply lines to Turkey.

Why Al Qaeda Released An American Hostage

BY THOMAS JOSCELYN

AUG 25, 2014

Earlier today, the news broke that Peter Theo Curtis, an American who had been held hostage in Syria since 2012, has been released by his captors. Coming just days after another American hostage, James Foley, was brutally beheaded by the Islamic State, Curtis’s freedom brings a sense of relief. 

The details of Curtis’s captivity and release reveal much about how al Qaeda is operating nearly thirteen years after the 9/11 attacks. It is not an accident that Curtis’s fate differed from Foley’s. 

Curtis was held by Jabhat al Nusrah, which is al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria. Al Nusrah’s leaders have sworn abayat (oath of allegiance) to Ayman al Zawahiri. Just late last month, one of Al Nusrah’s most senior religious officials publicly reaffirmed his allegiance to Zawahiri once again. Al Qaeda initially sought to hide its hand in Jabhat al Nusrah’s operations. The extent of the relationship only first came to light as a result of the infighting between Al Nusrah and the Islamic State, which was disowned by al Qaeda’s senior management. 

There are many reasons why al Qaeda ultimately broke with the Islamic State, deciding that Al Nusrah would be its representative in the Levant. One of these reasons has to do with how these groups are perceived. 

Al Qaeda, of course, would gladly kill American civilians in U.S. if the opportunity presents itself. Zawahiri and his ilk do not shy away from spilling American blood. But they have evolved a different approach to marketing and exploiting their violence.

While gory snuff videos, like the one produced by the Islamic State earlier this month, can encourage some segment of the jihadists’ recruiting base to commit to the cause, such productions can also turn off many in the broader Muslim community. And because al Qaeda seeks the support of that community, it typically avoids scenes such as the one depicted in the Foley video. 

Al Qaeda came to this conclusion years ago. “Among the things which the feelings of the Muslim populace who love and support you will never find palatable…are the scenes of slaughtering the hostages,” Zawahiri wrote to Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the head of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), in 2005. “You shouldn't be deceived by the praise of some of the zealous young men and their description of you as the shiekh of the slaughterers, etc. They do not express the general view of the admirer and the supporter of the resistance in Iraq, and of you in particular by the favor and blessing of God.”

Zawahiri did not want to spare the hostages; he simply didn’t want Zarqawi to carry on with his over-the-top executions, which sicken the stomachs of any halfway reasonable person.

“[W]e can kill the captives by bullet,” Zawahiri wrote, because “[t]hat would achieve that which is sought after without exposing ourselves to the questions and answering to doubts.” Simply put, Zawahiri argued, “We don’t need this.” Zawahiri comprehended that “more than half of” the jihadists’ “battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media,” and unspeakable acts of barbarism are therefore a liability, no matter how justifiable they are from the jihadists’s perspective.

The Islamic State's Home-Field Advantage

BY AARON DAVID MILLER

AUGUST 25, 2014

5 reasons why an expanded mission to strike James Foley's killers in Syria won't work. And why it's going to happen anyway.

Each day brings unsettling news of the Islamic State's (IS's) latest conquest. Last week, the flash point was the Mosul Dam in Iraq; today, the Taqba air base in Syria falls. Meanwhile, the U.S. air campaign continues -- haltingly -- against IS positions. Anyone who has ever been to a carnival can tell who eventually wins the game of Whac-A-Mole.

Even the Obama administration knows it can't defeat IS with a few 500-pound bombs in Iraq alone. There are just too many damn moles, with too much room to maneuver. And yet it seems that the White House's answer is to just grab another hammer -- to start slamming IS on both sides of the Syria-Iraq border.

Barack Obama is still a risk-averse president, particularly when it comes to the use of force in the Middle East. But like a moth to a flame, realities on the ground, the logic of the situation, and his own calculus are irrepressibly drawing him closer to using air power in Syria.

Here are five reasons why it's not such a great idea. Let's quickly lay out the downsides of striking IS in Syria -- and then move to the reasons the president is increasingly likely to do so anyway.

1. Syria isn't Iraq: In Iraq, the United States has several advantages that could make airstrikes against the Islamic State reasonably effective, including reliable Kurdish allies, the chance of standing up U.S.-trained Iraqi defense forces, intelligence assets, U.S. special operators on the ground, and at least a chance to forge a political reconciliation in Baghdad that might ease the disaffection and alienation of Iraqi Sunnis on which IS now feeds.

Syria has none of these. And none are soon coming, even if the United States gets serious about training and equipping those elusive Syrian moderates or creating an entirely new military force. Indeed, in this regard, 

Obama’s Hazy Sense of History

By Victor Davis Hanson

AUGUST 28, 2014 

For the president, belief in historical predetermination substitutes for action. 

President Obama doesn’t know much about history.

In his therapeutic 2009 Cairo speech, Obama outlined all sorts of Islamic intellectual and technological pedigrees, several of which were undeserved. He exaggerated Muslim contributions to printing and medicine, for example, and was flat-out wrong about the catalysts for the European Renaissance and Enlightenment.

He also believes history follows some predetermined course, as if things always get better on their own. Obama often praises those he pronounces to be on the “right side of history.” He also chastises others for being on the “wrong side of history” — as if evil is vanished and the good thrives on autopilot.

When in 2009 millions of Iranians took to the streets to protest the thuggish theocracy, they wanted immediate U.S. support. Instead, Obama belatedly offered them banalities suggesting that in the end, they would end up “on the right side of history.” Iranian reformers may indeed end up there, but it will not be because of some righteous inanimate force of history, or the prognostications of Barack Obama.

Obama often parrots Martin Luther King Jr.’s phrase about the arc of the moral universe bending toward justice. But King used that metaphor as an incentive to act, not as reassurance that matters will follow an inevitably positive course.

Another of Obama’s historical refrains is his frequent sermon about behavior that doesn’t belong in the 21st century. At various times he has lectured that the barbarous aggression of Vladimir Putin or the Islamic State has no place in our century and will “ultimately fail” — as if we are all now sophisticates of an age that has at last transcended retrograde brutality and savagery.

A Step Closer to Brexit?

Peter Sutherland

AUG 27, 2014 

Peter Sutherland, Chairman of the London School of Economics and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for International Migration and Development, is former Director General of the World Trade Organization, EU Commissioner for Competition, and Attorney General of Ireland.

LONDON – The referendum on Scottish independence, due on September 18, comes at a time of growing opposition in the United Kingdom to remaining in the European Union. This is significant, because Scotland is the strongest base of pro-European sentiment in the UK.

For example, a poll conducted earlier this year determined that if a referendum on continued EU membership had been held in June in the UK as a whole, 47.1% would have voted to leave, with 39.4% voting to remain. But a poll in February 2014 showed that in Scotland, 48.7% would vote for the UK to remain in the EU, with 35.4% voting to leave. Other polls have also shown a consistent and markedly more positive attitude toward the EU in Scotland than in England.

Of course, it is premature to draw any firm conclusions from these figures. The referendum on exiting the EU that Prime Minister David Cameron has proposed may not take place, regardless of the success (whatever that may mean) of his promised “renegotiation” of the terms of British membership. But, as a result of various ostensibly minor issues, the likelihood of a British exit seems to be increasing – which fundamentally alters the importance of the vote in Scotland.

For example, the proposal of the relatively unknown Jonathan Hill, the leader of the UK House of Lords, as the British member of the new European Commission headed by Jean-Claude Juncker was just the latest in a long series of British EU errors. Cameron’s spokesmen said in July that, at his first meeting with the new Commission president, Cameron would seek a prestigious portfolio, such as the internal market, for Hill. Juncker’s office coldly replied that important portfolios in the new Commission would go to major political figures, and that Juncker “does not owe [Cameron] anything.”

Given Cameron’s opposition to Juncker’s candidacy for the Commission presidency, the abuse to which Juncker has been subjected by the British press, and Hill’s lack of centrality within British politics, Cameron may be justifiably nervous when Juncker announces his appointments to the new Commission. Juncker, after all, has many senior politicians to accommodate, and their approval by the European Parliament is no minor matter. And, though it was perhaps unsurprising that Cameron should be unenthusiastic about Juncker’s candidacy, the vehemence of his opposition was extraordinary.

Cameron no doubt wished to reassure those in his Conservative Party who doubt his euroskeptic zeal. Even so, Cameron’s supposed remark that the UK was more likely to leave the EU if Juncker’s candidacy succeeded was strange and disquieting, not least because any renegotiation of the terms of British membership will be carried out primarily with other member states, not with the Commission.

Ebola Vaccine Will Do Little for Current Crisis

Kent Sepkowitz
08.28.14

Ebola Vaccine Will Do Little for Current Crisis

The National Institute of Health announced today that human trials of the Ebola vaccine will begin next week. But it won’t be ready in time for the West Africa’s crisis.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), the branch of the NIH that oversees investigations into infections ranging from Ebola to AIDS to Lyme, announced today that the first of a series of vaccine trials aimed at preventing acquisition of Ebola will be launched next week.

The first trial will be conducted in 20 healthy, uninfected volunteers at the NIH in Bethesda, Maryland. They will be enrolled into the trial three people at a time with frequent monitoring of the vaccine safety. Later this year, a related vaccine will be studied, again in a small number of healthy uninfected volunteers, in Great Britain and in the African countries of Mali and Gambia, which are unaffected by Ebola but which have strong healthcare infrastructures. Very preliminary talks also have commenced to conduct a trial in Nigeria, which has seen more than a dozen Ebola cases during the current outbreak.

The news is surely encouraging, coming as it does on the heels of the news from WHO, which now is preparing for an epidemic of up to 20,000 people, including the 3,000-plus infected thus far, with 1,552 deaths.

Yet NIAID director Dr. Anthony Fauci was very careful to state that for the current outbreak in West Africa, the best approach will not be the vaccine or any new treatments, but rather the approach being used today and last week and last month and last year: early diagnosis, prompt isolation, and use of “personal protective equipment” including gowns, gloves, and masks.

Bibi Netanyahu’s Secure “Red Phone”

Peter Koop

August 28, 2014

Another “red phone” for the Israeli prime minister

In an earlier posting on this weblog we took a look at the phones used by the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which included an eye-catching red one. In some more recent pictures we can see that this red phone has apparently been replaced by an interesting looking white telephone.

Although this device itself is white, it has a rarely seen but very distinctive feature: a red curly cord for the handset and also a red cable for the phone line. The buttons are also surrounded by some kind of red overlay:

The dark gray phone at the left is a more common Nortel M3904 executive phone - a model which is also used at the NSA headquaters and at the office of the British prime minister. Nortel was a big Canadian telephone equipment manufacturer, but was dissolved in 2009.

The white telephone with the red cord also appears on a side table in the seating corner of Netanyahu’s office, where before there was only a black phone. The latter is a more common Telrad Executive Phone 79-100-0000 from the Israeli telecom equipment manufacturer Telrad. This phone is also in the office of the Israeli defense minister and therefore it seems to be part of the (non-secure) internal phone system of both ministries.

US Secretary of State John Kerry and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

settle into their seats in Netanyahu’s office, January 2, 2014.

Opinion: A New Era in Anti-Submarine Warfare

By: Lt. Cmdr. Jeff W. Benson, USN

August 27, 2014

China and Russia’s submarine forces are flexing their prowess in the undersea domain by operating further from their respective country’s homeport – in some cases within striking distance of the United States.

Given the expansion in operations, anti-submarine warfare (ASW) platforms on both coasts of the United States will be required to monitor and defend the nation more frequently.

Foreign submarine operations near the homeland are not necessarily immediate threats, but do require careful thought as the Navy prepares to execute future ASW missions. As budget and naval policymakers continue to plan for the future, ASW must remain a high priority for either homeland or overseas defense. The good news is that the U.S. Navy has new platforms and technology coming online that can provide a significant advantage in the undersea domain.

China.

An undated photo of a Jin-class Type 94 nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). PLAN Photo

Adm. Sam Locklear, Commander, Pacific Command, earlier this year stated, “China’s advance in submarine capabilities is significant. They possess a large and increasingly capable submarine force.” China has expanded their undersea reach as evident in this year’s deployment of a Chinese nuclear submarine to the Indian Ocean. The deployment demonstrates extended submarine operations and the capability for China to deploy nuclear submarines within ballistic missile launch range of the United States, within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), or potentially closer to territorial waters. As China continues sustained undersea operations, proficiency will likely improve with time as well.

Here Comes the Pentagon's New Space Plane

By Robert Beckhusen

August 28, 2014

XS-1 is a drone for launching small satellites

We’re entering a new era of space flight. The result—if all the new toys in development work—will be cheaper, lighter and more frequent travels into space.

One example is the XS-1, a program to build a space plane led by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Last week, Northrop Grumman—which is competing with Boeing and Masten Space Systems for a final contract—revealed a concept for its version of the craft.

It’s designed to be unmanned and capable of lifting small and medium-size satellites into space—like a tiny, sub-orbital drone version of the Space Shuttle—before arching back down to Earth.

“It would be a spacecraft that most resembles what people see in the movies,” Brian Weeden, a former officer with the Air Force’s Space Command, tells War is Boring.

Right now, in order to launch a satellite, NASA has to spend around $55 million per single-use rocket launch. But DARPA’s goal is to develop a reusable space craft that can handle a quick space flight—at $5 million per launch.

Instead of spending months planning to launch a single rocket in a limited window of time, the XS-1 could be ready again in days—or even hours. DARPA’s goal is even more radical. The agency wants a plane that can carry out 10 launches in as many days.

“If we could pull it off, it would enable much cheaper and faster access to space,” Weeden says. “Something that many people see as the key to opening up space development.”

THE C-130: FEEDING THE NEEDFUL BEAST

Peter Munson

August 28, 2014 

War is a needful beast, consuming vast amounts of things. Munitions. Construction materials for protecting fragile bodies from munitions. Or to build boardwalks and nail salons that protected minds from the war going on outside the construction material. Vehicles and other equipment. Petroleum, oil, and lubricants — lots of them — to feed the vehicles and equipment. And people. People to run the vehicles and equipment, to fire the munitions, to walk on the boardwalk, to absorb the munitions (hence the term “bullet sponge”), and to eat — MREs and water, if you are a bullet sponge. TGI Friday’s if you are a board walker. Add food and water to the list.

The business of feeding the beast is called logistics. The staff types puff, “Amateurs talk strategy, but professionals talk logistics.” These professionals dream of iron mountains and bringing a little slice of America to the world — such as obesity, for example. They call this being expeditionary. One example of being expeditionary is that troops at a fixed base somewhere in Iraq once only could buy Lays potato chips at the exchange because the convoy full of Pringles was destroyed by insurgents. A Marine infantry unit kept watch over the convoy to the laconic midday accompaniment of insurgent mortar fire until Graves Registration or some such unit could arrive to prise from the cabs of the trucks the charred bodies of contract drivers who gave their lives for Pringles. Professionals call Pringles “Class VI,” defined as personal-demand items. When amateurs hear Class VI, they think of booze, since that is what the booze store on base is called. Only in the States though. There was no alcohol allowed in Iraq or Afghanistan. That would detract from the war effort.

War is needful of things and the Class VI store is needful of customers so, during the Korean War, the staff types determined that the best thing for that would be an aircraft designed from the ground up as a combat transport. Thus was born the C-130, which first flew on August 23, 1954, 60 years ago this week. The C-130 was to war as blood doping was to a cyclist’s career. They both contributed significantly to expanding the frontiers of the sport. Anyone who has been to war after Korea has probably ridden somewhere on a C-130 and almost certainly has seen a C-130 landing at (or at least headed for) some small, obscure patch of dirt or sand where before only trucks or helicopters could go.

The C-130 is an amazing aircraft and those of us who flew it developed a relationship with it approaching friendship or perhaps even love. We talked to the planes, patted them on the nose before getting in the saddle, petted the glare shield between their ears during difficult rides, noted their temperaments, and cooed and cajoled them into doing things they didn’t really want to do long after they should have been done doing such things. But like once-magnificent, ever-proud steeds, they kept on at it into the arthritic throes of age, until a new generation came along to follow the trail they blazed.

The two generations conducted their relief-in-place during another era of American wars. The youngsters came in fresh and eager. A decade later, they have aged well beyond their years, ridden far harder than the staff types ever expected. But, like their forebears, they are a proud and reliable lot. Old, or new, a C-130 at work is a practical and purposeful thing. Its collection of systems make a symphony of hums, rattles, roars, and hisses while it goes about its business. This collection of systems has enabled the C-130 to do all manner of things, and do them well: landing or air dropping troops and cargo, refueling jets and helicopters and now a strange hybrid of the two, turning night into day with hours’ worth of flares, and even loosing ordnance on the heads of unsuspecting enemies.

Navy with a mission in mind

By George F. Will 
August 27

Susan Ford Bales, daughter of former President Gerald R. Ford christens the Navy's newest nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford at Newport News Shipbuilding in Newport News, Va. (Steve Helber/AP)

Russia’s ongoing dismemberment of Ukraine and the Islamic State’s erasing of Middle Eastern borders have distracted attention from theharassment of U.S. Navy aircraft by Chinese fighter jets over the South China Sea. Beijing calls this sea, and the Yellow and East China seas, the “near seas,” meaning China’s seas. The episodes involving aircraft are relevant to one of Adm. Jonathan Greenert’s multiplying preoccupations — CUES, meaning Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea.

This is designed to prevent incendiary accidents, a topic of special interest during this month’s centennial commemorations of the beginning of a war that, ignited by miscalculations, ruined the 20th century. Greenert, chief of naval operations, has carrier-based aircraft flying from the Persian Gulf to targets in Iraq. He is, however, always thinking about the far side of the largest ocean.

George F. Will writes a twice-weekly column on politics and domestic and foreign affairs. He began his column with The Post in 1974, and he received the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary in 1977. He is also a contributor to FOX News’ daytime and primetime programming.

One hundred years ago, the principal challenge of world diplomacy, which failed spectacularly, was to peacefully integrate a rising, restless power — Germany — into the international system. Today’s comparable challenge is China. Greenert, who knows well his Chinese counterpart, Adm. Wu Shengli, radiates a serene patience about China.

Today the Chinese have one primitive aircraft carrierbuilt from a hull bought from Ukraine. Greenert says China is about 10 years away from having a seriously large and capable carrier with excellent aircraft. By which time, optimists hope, China will accept the need for orderliness on the seas over which pass 90 percent of the world’s trade (by volume) and beneath which, through cables, pass 95 percent of international phone and Internet traffic.

Libya's interim government resigns under pressure

Aug 29, 2014

The interim government, operating in the east of the country to avoid the Islamist militias which have a strong presence in Tripoli, said yesterday it "presented its resignation to the elected parliament", which is based in Tobruk, 600 kilometres east of the capital, also for security reasons. (AP Photo)

BENGHAZI: Libya's toothless interim government, led by prime minister Abdullah al-Thani, announced it had tendered its resignation to the elected parliament, days after a rival Islamist administration was created. 

The interim government, operating in the east of the country to avoid the Islamist militias which have a strong presence in Tripoli, said yesterday it "presented its resignation to the elected parliament", which is based in Tobruk, 600 kilometres east of the capital, also for security reasons. 

The announcement came three days after Libya's general national Congress, officially replaced by the parliament elected in June, on Monday named pro-Islamist figure Omar al-Hassi to form a "salvation government". 

The Islamist-dominated GNC convened in Tripoli following an appeal by Islamists groups which contest the legitimacy of the parliament based in Tobruk. 

"The GNC dismissed Abdullah al-Thani as head of government and gave Omar al-Hassi a week to form a salvation government," GNC spokesman Omar Ahmidan told journalists in Tripoli on Monday. 

Islamists called for the GNC to reconvene after they accused parliament of complicity in air raids last week on Islamists battling to capture Tripoli international airport from the nationalist Zintan militia. 

The Islamists claimed to have seized the airport and television pictures on Monday showed them apparently running rampage and celebrating their capture of the facility. 

In its resignation statement the Thani government said it hoped parliament, which it described as "the only legitimate authority in the country", would form a new government "representing all Libyan people... and capable of re-establishing security and building a lawful state". 

That will also be the wish of the international community which has become increasingly concerned at the chaotic situation in Libya. 

The outgoing administration denounced the move to create an alternative Islamist government. 

"It's an act of rebellion against the legitimacy of parliament which is recognised by the international community," it said.

FBI investigates cyber attack on US banks

James Moore

Aug 29, 2014

The attack on JP Morgan reportedly resulted in the loss of “gigabytes of sensitive data” that could have involved customer and employee information. 

The FBI is investigating a suspected Russian cyber attack on a number of American banks. Hackers are believed to have targeted JP Morgan and at least four other banks in the US, amid increasing concern over cyber security from watchdogs on both sides of the Atlantic. 

The attack on JP Morgan reportedly resulted in the loss of "gigabytes of sensitive data" that could have involved customer and employee information. It is said to have been of a level of sophistication beyond ordinary criminals, leading to speculation of a state link. 

The FBI is thought to be investigating whether there is a connection to Russia. American-Russian relations continue to be fraught amid the crisis in Ukraine, with sanctions ramped up. 

The bank is understood to have been in touch with executives in London to see if there is any link to its UK operations, but so far the attack, which happened earlier this month, is thought to have affected only the US. But watchdogs are increasingly worried about the city's potential vulnerability to an aggressive state-backed hack. 

A spokesman for JP Morgan said: "Companies of our size unfortunately experience cyber attacks nearly every day. We have multiple layers of defence to counteract any threats and constantly monitor fraud levels." 

JP faced criticism in April when it blocked a payment from a Russian embassy to the affiliate of an American-sanctioned bank. Russia's foreign ministry described the move as "absolutely unacceptable, illegal and absurd". 

That led to speculation that the bank would face some form of retaliatory action. UK watchdogs say sophisticated hackers have changed tack recently, using publicly available information and a more pinpoint approach to find a way through or around banks' security walls. The tactic has also affected European banks.