David Autor and James Manyika
No one doubts that our future will feature more automation than our past or present. The question is how we get from here to there, and how we do so in a way that is good for humanity.
Sometimes it seems the most direct route is to automate wherever possible, and to keep iterating until we get it right. Here’s why that would be a mistake: imperfect automation is not a first step toward perfect automation, anymore than jumping halfway across a canyon is a first step toward jumping the full distance. Recognizing that the rim is out of reach, we may find better alternatives to leaping—for example, building a bridge, hiking the trail, or driving around the perimeter. This is exactly where we are with artificial intelligence. AI is not yet ready to jump the canyon, and it probably won’t be in a meaningful sense for most of the next decade.
Rather than asking AI to hurl itself over the abyss while hoping for the best, we should instead use AI’s extraordinary and improving capabilities to build bridges. What this means in practical terms: We should insist on AI that can collaborate with, say, doctors—as well as teachers, lawyers, building contractors, and many others—instead of AI that aims to automate them out of a job.
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