Saab Outlines Gripen NG Plan For India

By IDR News Network

16 Jun , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/saab-outlines-gripen-ng-plan-for-india/

Defence and security company Saab today outlined the Gripen NG concept for India during a press seminar. Saab recently unveiled in Linkoping the Gripen E, its first test aircraft of the next generation Gripen, and has comprehensive plans to further design, develop, manufacture and maintain the aircraft in India through transfer of technology. Gripen E is the variant of Gripen NG that has been selected by Sweden.

Gripen NG is the most advanced multi-role fighter in the world. Gripen is, by design, a true multi-role fighter aircraft, capable of performing an extensive range of air-to-air, air-to-surface and reconnaissance missions under all conditions in any environment.

Using the latest technology, sensors and weapon systems, it is designed to meet the demands of existing and future threats, while simultaneously balancing strict requirements for mission success, reliability, training efficiency and low operating costs.

Measuring Risk - Pakistani Nukes Escaping to “Funny Fellows”

By Navneet Bhushan

17 Jun , 2016

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In 1998 after the Pakistani nuclear tests, the estimates were that Pakistan may possess and have the fissile material for about 20 Nuclear warheads with a potential yield of 20-30 Kilo Tons of TNT equivalent (usually called 20KT-30KT). It was assumed that 20-30 nuclear weapons will be sufficient for Pakistan. However, the numbers have gone up 4 times and there is no indication of stopping the maddening spiral of this race. The relentless illogical increase in number of nuclear bombs with Pakistan is becoming riskier with each new nuclear weapon.

…the obvious source of such a weapon in the hands of terrorists – specifically Islamic terrorists – will indeed be Pakistan.

Late Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, India’s ex-President had a mild phrase for the illogical, fanatic, fringe groups including terrorists. He would address them the “funny fellows” – a term that was the most intense rebuke one of our greatest scientists could draft in his soft spoken manner – but it was always an intense rebuke. I am reminded of the phrase “Funny Fellow” as I sift through the details of disgusting Orlando killing in USA.

Pakistan's Crippling Strategic Isolation Is Its Own Fault

Aziz Amin AhmadzaiMona Naseer

June 16, 2016

Sourc elInk

A sovereign state’s foreign policy changes with the times, and according to its domestic needs and external changes in global politics. Nations have national interests, and there are no permanent enemies and friendships in international politics. Neighboring states can be a boon or a bane, depending on the ability to recognize one’s long-term interests of sustainable peace on its borders.

Pakistan’s recent relations with Afghanistan have been one such example, with Pakistan as a state unable to define its foreign policy and national interests beyond a Cold War paradigm. An India-centric foreign policy has stalled Pakistan’s foreign-policy evolution and tainted its worldview of international politics. Pakistan currently has strained and difficult relations with all its neighbors except China.

Following the Kargil War in 1999 with India, Pakistan faced international isolation, and national anxieties shifted to its western border, in order to stave off the very real risk of nuclear escalation with India and continue with its proxy war in Afghanistan. Pakistani foreign-policy makers and mostly military elites thought that acquiring the upper hand in Afghanistan and containing the warring tribesmen next door would be a much easier task.

Taliban Seize a District in Uruzgan Province in Afghanistan

Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss

June 16, 2016

Taliban seizes a district in Uruzgan

The Taliban took control of a district center in the central Afghan province of Uruzgan after several days of fighting Afghan forces who are reported to have been supported by US forces.

The Taliban said it overran the “police HQ [headquarters] and other installations” at Char Chino and “dismantled” the “district administration center and other buildings.” The jihadist group made the claim on its official propaganda website, Voice of Jihad.

According to the Taliban, it launched the attack yesterday morning and killed 35 “puppets,” or Afghan police and military personnel. The Taliban claimed it destroyed two armored personnel carriers and 7 Ford Ranger pickup trucks. Four Taliban fighters were killed during the assault, the group claimed.

The fall of Char Chino was confirmed by Stars & Stripes, which reported that “the international coalition was providing support to government forces” during the fighting.

However, the spokesman for Uruzgan province claimed that the governor’s office was still under Afghan forces’ control and security forces withdrew from the police headquarters in a “tactical move,” Stars and Stripes reported.

South China Sea: A Legal Analysis of China's Maritime Claims

By Tuan N. Pham

June 16, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/south-china-sea-a-legal-analysis-of-chinas-maritime-claims/

A year and a half ago, the contested South China Sea (SCS) was awash in international intrigues and legal maneuverings. On December 7, 2014, two days after the U.S. State Department released Washington’s legal views on Beijing’s disputed nine-dash line (NDL) claim in the SCS, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released a position paper outlining China’s objections to the jurisdiction of the International Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague while reiterating its intent to not participate in the legal proceedings initiated by the Philippines. On December 11, 2014, Vietnam also issued a formal statement to the Tribunal supporting the Philippines’ arbitration case and expressing its own opposition to China’s maritime sovereignty claims in the SCS.

The release of all three legal opinions came before the December 15, 2014 deadline for China to formally respond to the case brought by the Philippines to the PCA in early 2013. The timing of the releases suggested Beijing, Washington, and Hanoi all recognized the strategic imperative to occupy the legal and moral high grounds and influence the Tribunal prior to the jurisdictions ruling last October and merits ruling expected soon.

China-US Relations in Cyberspace: A Half-Year Assessment

By Franz-Stefan Gady

June 16, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/china-us-relations-in-cyberspace-a-half-year-assessment/

With the second round of the China-U.S. High-Level Dialogue on Cybercrime and Related Issues held on June 14 in Beijing finished, as well as the eighth China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) concluded, it might be time for a tentative mid-year assessment of China-U.S. relations in cyberspace.

Overall, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the relationship for three reasons.

First, we have not seen the disclosure of a likely Chinese state-sponsored cyber operation akin to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management data breach revealed in June 2015. This in no way means that these sorts of attacks are not occurring at the moment. However, the fact that neither country has chosen to publicize any large-scale attacks in 2016 indicates a willingness by both sides to at least attempt to find a modus operandi in cyberspace that will not have spillover effects into other parts of the bilateral relationship.Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

5 Common Myths about China's Power

Bonnie S. GlaserMatthew P. Funaiole

June 16, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/5-common-myths-about-chinas-power-16623?page=show

China’s transformation from an isolated, developing country into an economic juggernaut and emerging global actor is perhaps the most important power shift for twenty-first-century international politics. Its economy is now second largest in the world, while its military budget has ballooned from $20 billion in 1989 to $215 billion in 2015—an amount larger than the military budgets of Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom combined.

Fear surrounding the consequences of China’s rise has engendered the spread of misinformation and hyperbole, much of which dominates public discussion of China in the United States. Several persistent “myths” about China overshadow its many problems, including its deeply ingrained corruption, slowing economic growth and aging population.

These myths create an image of China as a dangerous usurper destined to displace the United States as the dominant global power. Breaking down the myths about Chinese power is critical to understanding China’s rise, its potential role in the international community and the evolving nature of U.S.-China relations.

Myth #1: China is a global military superpower.

One Last Chance to Stop China's Impending Debt Crisis

Scott B. MacDonald

June 16, 2016

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On June 11, 2016, the International Monetary Fund’s number two, David Lipton, urged China to take steps to tackle its rising corporate debt or risk “dangerous detours” in the country’s transition to a consumption-oriented economy. He stated, “Corporate debt remains a serious—and growing—problem that must be addressed immediately and with a commitment to serious reforms.”

Lipton is hardly alone in warning about the buildup in Chinese debt. Indeed, the buildup in Chinese corporate debt since 2008 increasingly resembles the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. Although China’s troubles are not an exact replay of what occurred in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea in 1997–98, there are some similarities that are worth remembering.

Before China took off in the 1990s, a number of Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, as well as South Korea in East Asia, made substantial strides in their economic development. This process accelerated in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, characterized by rapid economic growth, rising living standards and large inflows of capital.

Former Chinese Employee of IBM Charged With Economic Espionage

June 16, 2016

US charges former IBM worker with spying

US authorities on Tuesday charged a former Chinese employee of tech giant IBM Corp with economic espionage for allegedly stealing proprietary source code to hand over to a Chinese government agency.

The US Department of Justice said Xu Jiaqiang (許家強) had been a developer for an unnamed US company when he took the source code, intending to provide it to the Chinese National Health and Planning Commission, where he previously worked.

At the same time, he offered the code, the essential kernel of software programs often held tightly by their owners, to US FBI agents posing as tech company officials seeking software for their company.

After an investigation that lasted more than one year, Xu was arrested in December last year and charged with theft of trade secrets.

Tuesday’s indictment supersedes that charge with three counts of economic espionage, each of which could bring 15 years in prison, and three counts of trade secret threat, which carry 10 year sentences apiece.

The indictment did not name IBM, and the company did not return queries. US officials did not confirm IBM’s involvement.

However, the company’s Web site and a LinkedIn profile both name a Xu as a developer at IBM, and media reports since the December arrest also put him at the company.

“Xu allegedly stole proprietary information from his former employer for his own profit and the benefit of the Chinese government,” US Assistant Attorney General John Carlin said in a statement. “Those who steal America’s trade secrets for the benefit of foreign nations pose a threat to our economic and national security interests.”

Chinese Spy Ship Operating in Japanese Waters

Gabriel Dominguez and Chieko Tsuneoka

June 16, 2016

Chinese spy ship enters Japanese territorial waters

A Chinese naval intelligence ship briefly entered Japan’s territorial waters in the early hours of 15 June, according to Japanese officials. Source: Japan MoD

A Chinese naval intelligence ship temporarily entered Japan’s territorial waters in the early hours of 15 June, Japanese officials said. This is the first time a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessel has been confirmed as entering Japan’s 12 n mile territorial seas since a Han-class nuclear-powered attack submarine entered Japanese waters off Ishigaki Island in 2004.

A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) Lockheed P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft spotted the PLAN vessel - identified as a Type 815 Dongdiao-class intelligence ship - west of Kuchinoerabu Island in southern Japan at around 0330 h local time, said officials at Japan’s Ministry of Defense.

Cracks In ASEAN Unity Over South China Sea Dispute – Analysis

BY DR. RAJARAM PANDA 

JUNE 16, 2016

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Owing to the increasing belligerence demonstrated by China in recent times on the South China Sea (SCS) issue, this oceanic space has emerged as a major flashpoint in the Asia-Pacific region as there are several claimants to this disputed maritime territory. While several smaller nations of the ASEAN grouping claim to some parts of the SCS which are in their exclusive economic zones, China claims its sovereignty over the region in its entirety. It has declared the SCS as one of its core interest, along with Tibet and Taiwan.

Vietnam and the Philippines have contested Chinese claim vigorously. While Vietnam is getting prepared to repulse to any Chinese advance and also beefing up its defence relationships with countries friendly to it such as the US, Japan and India, the Philippines has taken up the case before the international tribunal for arbitration. China has already announced that it would reject the world court verdict if it goes against it. China has categorically said that it does not recognise the arbitration and has reacted angrily to the Philippines’ legal efforts over Beijing-controlled Scarborough Shoal, which sits just 230 kilometres off the main Philippine island of Luzon. While the US and regional powers are awaiting the official response to the tribunal court ruling before reacting, Beijing stands firm. The US and the European Union have urged China to respect the ruling from The Hague when it comes. China has ignored such advice. The court has no powers of enforcement and its rulings have been ignored before.

Chinese claims

China bases its sovereignty claims on historical maps, which it has circulated with an arbitrary nine-dash line. Based on this map, China claims its jurisdiction over the bulk of the maritime space in the SCS in total disregard to other claimant nations and in violation of the universally recognised principles of international law including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The UNCLOS does not recognise historical claims and permits coastal states an exclusive economic zone of up to 200 nautical miles and a continental shelf up to 350 nautical miles.

US Navy Sends Electronic Attack Warplanes to Philippines Amid South China Sea Tensions

By Franz-Stefan Gady

June 17, 2016

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Amid rising tensions in the South China Sea, the United States Navy dispatched four U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler airborne electronic attack aircraft and about 120 military personnel to Clark Air Base, an air force base located on Luzon Island in the Philippines, according to a U.S. Seventh Fleet press release.

The four aircraft and 120 personnel arrived on June 15 for training with Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) FA-50 aircraft pilots and to support U.S. and Philippine naval operations in the South China Sea, as the statement makes clear with a veiled reference to so-called freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the disputed waters.

“In addition to bilateral training missions, Growler aircraft will support routine operations that enhance regional maritime domain awareness and assure access to the air and maritime domains in accordance with international law,” the press release reads.

More HUMINT Needed for Counterterrorism Fight

Matt A. Mayer

June 17, 2016

Enhanced Human Intelligence Is Key to Defeating Terrorists

Introduction

As the barbaric attacks in Paris, San Bernardino, Brussels, and Orlando have demonstrated, we need to enhance our capabilities to detect and thwart terrorists as they plan attacks. With the proliferation of off-the-shelf encryption technologies and other operational security measures, terrorists are becoming harder to find by traditional technical collection methods such as wiretaps and signals intelligence (SIGINT). Meeting this threat means investing in human intelligence (HUMINT) capabilities at home—not just at the federal level, but also at the state and local levels.

In an important speech nearly a decade ago, Gen. Michael Hayden, a retired four-star Air Force general and former director of both the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, described the challenges the United States faced then and the critical importance of intelligence in winning the war on terrorism.

We’re now in an age in which our primary adversary is easy to kill, he’s just very hard to find. So you can understand why so much emphasis in the last five years has been placed on intelligence. Moreover, the moment of an enemy’s attack may be just that, a moment, a split second, the time it takes for an airliner to crash or a bomb to detonate. There can be little or no time to defeat him on the battlefield he’s chosen.1 (emphasis added)

Pentagon Playing Great Role in US Drone Program, But CIA Control Over Drone Strikes Remains

Adam Entous and Gordon Lubold

June 17, 2016

Obama’s Drone Revamp Gives Military Bigger Responsibility, Keeps CIA Role

WASHINGTON—A long- promised plan by President Barack Obama to shift control of drone campaigns around the world gives the U.S. military more responsibility but retains a Central Intelligence Agency role in the targeted-killing program, according to officials briefed on the arrangement.

Mr. Obama’s plan settles a three-year turf battle among the CIA, the Pentagon and a divided Congress over whether the time has come to scale back the CIA’s quasi-military role 15 years after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The revamp stops short of giving the U.S. military’s Joint Special Operations Command the full control of the drone wars that its congressional backers have sought. It also deals a setback to advocates inside and outside the administration for ending CIA involvement in lethal action so the agency can refocus on its core mission of gathering and analyzing intelligence.

The turf fight between JSOC and the CIA over drones highlights how government agencies and their supporters in Congress compete with one another for counterterrorism resources and, in this case, authority over the coveted role within the bureaucracy of pulling the trigger.

ENLARGE

A burqa-clad Yemeni woman walked in March past graffiti in San’a, Yemen, protesting U.S. drone operations. Photo: yahya arhab/European Pressphoto Agency

Trying to Predict Terrorist Attacks With Mathematical Algorithms

Pam Belluck

June 17, 2016

Fighting ISIS With an Algorithm, Physicists Try to Predict Attacks

After Orlando and San Bernardino and Paris, there is new urgency to understand the signs that can precede acts of terrorism. And with the Islamic State’s prolific use of social media, terrorism experts and government agencies continually search for clues in posts and Twitter messages that appear to promote the militants’ cause.

A physicist may not seem like an obvious person to study such activity. But for months, Neil Johnson, a physicist at the University of Miami, led a team that created a mathematical model to sift order from the chaotic pro-terrorism online universe.

In a study published Thursday in the journal Science, Dr. Johnson and Miami colleagues searched for pro-Islamic State posts each day from mid-2014 until August 2015, mining mentions of beheadings and blood baths in multiple languages on Vkontakte, a Russia-based social media service that is the largest European equivalent to Facebook. Ultimately, they devised an equation that tries to explain the activity of Islamic State sympathizers online and might, they say, eventually help predict attacks that are about to happen.

Experts who study terrorism and online communication said that the new research was informative, and that they appreciated that the authors would make their data available to other researchers. But they cautioned that the actions of terrorist groups are extremely difficult to anticipate and said more information was needed, especially to substantiate any predictive potential of the team’s equation.

CIVILIAN LIVES AND THE FATE OF CAMPAIGNS

CHRISTOPHER KOLENDA

JUNE 16, 2016

http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/civilian-lives-and-the-fate-of-campaigns/

Do civilian lives matter in war? Critics argue that any restrictions on the use of force beyond the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) are self-defeating and result in more American military deaths.

Some Republican presidential candidates have advocated torture, carpet bombing cities held by ISIL, and targeting family members of militant leaders. Top military officials have pushed back, noting that such actions would violate the laws of war. Other former officials, meanwhile, deride restrictions on the use of force in Iraq and Syria.

With 15 years of battlefield experience since 9/11, the military has the data to more effectively manage the complex interactions between strategic interests, force protection, and civilian protection. How the U.S. military uses this data will signal its seriousness about learning and adapting from recent conflicts.

The way forward is laid out in my new report with co-authors Rachel Reid and Chris Rogers from the Open Society Foundations, The Strategic Costs of Civilian Harm: Applying Lessons from Afghanistan to Current and Future Conflicts. My co-authors and I interviewed more than 60 senior U.S. and Afghan officers, diplomats, aid workers, and other experts, including former Afghan president Karzai and two former International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) commanders — Generals David Petraeus and John Allen. We also took a deep dive into the academic literature and recent empirical studies to develop our findings and recommendations.

Study Finds Lone Wolf Terrorists Never Really Operate Alone

June 16, 2016

Wolf dens, not lone wolves, the norm in U.S. Islamic State plots

If Omar Mateen acted alone in plotting the massacre of 49 people at Orlando’s Pulse gay nightclub, he would be the exception rather than the rule in U.S. cases involving suspected Islamic State supporters.

Sunday’s worst mass shooting in modern U.S. history prompted renewed warnings from officials of “lone wolf” attackers, a term that commonly invokes images of isolated individuals, radicalized online by violent propaganda and plotting alone.

But a Reuters review of the approximately 90 Islamic State court cases brought by the Department of Justice since 2014 found that three-quarters of those charged were alleged to be part of a group of anywhere from two to more than 10 co-conspirators who met in person to discuss their plans. were almost always in contact with other sympathizers, whether via text message, email or networking websites, according to court documents. Fewer than 10 cases involved someone accused of acting entirely alone.

The “lone wolf” image obscures the extent to which individuals become radicalized through personal association with like-minded people, in what might be termed “wolf dens,” experts on radicalization and counter-terrorism say.

“We focus so much on the online stuff that we’re missing that there’s a very human connection going on here,” said Karen Greenberg, who runs the Center on National Security at Fordham University in New York.

The U.S. Terrorism Watch Lists

June 16, 2016

Factbox: Eyes on U.S. terrorism watchlists after Orlando shootings

As facts emerge about Omar Mateen, the gunman who killed 49 people at a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida, on Sunday, questions have arisen about how well-known he was to U.S. intelligence agencies.

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey said on Monday that Mateen was on a watchlist between May 2013 and March 2014 while he was under investigation after claiming a connection to or support for multiple Islamist extremist groups, including al Qaeda, Hezbollah, al-Nusra and Islamic State.

The FBI maintains three watchlists and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence runs one database. People are placed on a watchlist according to the threat level they are believed to pose. Comey did not specify which watchlist named Mateen. Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton has supported stricter gun laws and said on Monday she would push for laws that would prevent people on a no-fly list from buying guns.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has embraced gun rights, said he would meet with the leading U.S. gun rights group about preventing people on a government watchlist from buying guns.

The U.S. government maintains the following databases:

Terrorist Watchlist or Terrorist Screening Database (about 420,000 names): Established after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the Terrorist Watchlist is intended “to positively identify known or suspected terrorists trying to obtain visas, enter the U.S, board aircraft, or engage in other activity.” Prior to 2001, intelligence agencies maintained dozens of individual lists. The Terrorist Watchlist is run by the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Center with the goal of consolidating the U.S. government’s watchlists into a single database.

Iran's Oil Comeback May Already Be Over

Grant Smith

June 16, 2016

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Iran easily beat expectations with its speed in boosting oil exports after the lifting of sanctions. Without an injection of cash and the easing of remaining trade barriers, the recovery may have run its course.

When restrictions on Iran’s oil exports were relieved in January following a nuclear pact with world powers, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Barclays Plc doubted it could return to previous levels this year. The Persian Gulf state defied the skeptics with a 25 percent surge in production and aims to reach an eight-year high of 4 million barrels a day by year-end.

“They have surprised most market participants with the speed they’ve been able to resume production,” said Antoine Halff, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in New York. “But to exceed pre-sanctions levels would require investment and technology and that’s a much longer-term proposition.”

Returning to world markets after more than three years of isolation, Iran is seeking more than $100 billion of investment from international partners to rehabilitate its oil industry and ultimately reclaim its position as OPEC’s second-biggest producer. Still, companies are waiting for Iran to approve the contract model to be used in deals and for clarity on remaining U.S. sanctions before re-entering the country.

Iranian Wins

The Danger of Killing Islamic State's Caliph

Tobin Harshaw

JUNE 16, 2016

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We've seen this movie before, but still don't know how it ends: According to unconfirmed reports, the so-called caliph of Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed by a U.S. airstrike in Raqqa, Syria. Similar rumors cropped up at least twice before, in January and October of last year, and both times the news of his death was greatly exaggerated. As for the latest report, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL Brett McGurk said, "We have no reason to believe that Baghdadi's not still alive, but we have not heard from him since the end of last year." 

Baghdadi's silence or even death might seem like excellent news for the fight against the jihadists. An accomplished scholar of the Koran, he was named the "commander of believers" globally by Islamic State in 2014, a title not held since the fall of the Ottoman sultan.

But some military strategists and scholars of Islam make a strong argument that the U.S.-led coalition would be better off if Baghdadi remains alive and in charge.

Consider a 2014 study by Jenna Jordan of the Georgia Institute of Technology on so-called decapitation strikes against major terrorist groups. On the death of al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden, she writes, "decapitation is unlikely to diminish the ability" of al-Qaeda, "rather, it may have counterproductive consequences, emboldening or strengthening the organization."

The once-in-a-generation change to our foreign policy

June 13, 2016

Duterte seeks multilateral talks

Rodrigo Duterte says he would call for multilateral talks to resolve disputes over the South China Sea if elected Philippine president.

Great sea changes of foreign-policy opinion are rare in Australian politics, taking place perhaps once in a generation. But there is ample evidence that we are undergoing one now.

We all know that Australia has marched in lockstep with the US in every major military dispute for decades. Less apparent, however, is how deeply skeptical we are about Washington's staying power in Asia and how relaxed we are about China's rise.

The United States Studies Centre released a survey last week on Asian-Pacific views on the United States' place in the region. The findings are striking: 80 per cent of Australians believe America's best days are behind it and 53 per cent think China will or has already replaced the US as the world's leading superpower. To the extent that such attitudes prevail, they are inimical to the notion of US global leadership in the post-Cold War era.

Illustration: Jim Pavlidis Illustration: Jim Pavlidis

There is good reason to believe that such attitudes will prevail, especially if the Coalition is re-elected on July 2. Although the Gillard government enhanced security ties with the US in 2011-13, its conservative successors have struck a different tone, lest our defence posture upsets China.

FEAR AND LOATHING IN THE LEVANT: TURKEY CHANGES ITS SYRIA POLICY AND STRATEGY

AARON STEIN

JUNE 16, 2016

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Turkey’s strategic position in northern Aleppo and the Manbij pocket has collapsed, forcing the Turkish government to recalibrate its Syria policy. This shift in Turkish policy began in June 2015, when Turkish officials began to speak openly about the need for a safe zone between the Euphrates River and the opposition held city of Azaz. This policy proposal differed from Turkey’s previous insistence on a comprehensive no-fly-zone over all of Syria, enforced with American, Turkish, and other allied aircraft. This policy was meant to address Turkey’s two top security threats: the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Islamic State (ISIL).

The Turkish government is now pursuing a bifurcated approach to the Syrian conflict. This dramatic shift in policy is a departure from Turkey’s previous efforts to dictate the course of the war in northern Syria and is reflective of Turkish concerns about this latest phase of the Syrian conflict, including Turkey’s overarching fear of Kurdish political and military empowerment. Ankara is focused on putting military pressure on the Syrian regime south of Aleppo city, while making taking steps to hedge against the likelihood that the PYD will eventually link territory taken from ISIL west of Manbij with Kurdish-controlled territory south of Marea.

Meet the Russian Intel Hacker Groups Who Stole Donald Trump Files From the DNC

Jeff Stone

June 16, 2016

Meet Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear, Russian groups behind DNC hack

The hackers who spent at least a year lurking inside the Democratic National Committee’s computers weren’t just any cybercriminals. They’re suspected in a number of high-profile attacks against the US and other Western countries going back almost a decade. Now investigators say they’re directly tied to Russian spy agencies.

In addition to swiping research on Donald Trump from DNC networks, experts say these two outfits have previously stolen research on Hillary Clinton, and have also spied on computers belonging to Republican operatives. 

While the Russian government denies any involvement with the DNC hack or these two operations – which the cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike referred to as Cozy Bear and Fancy Bear – many experts say the digital theft is a further sign that hacking is becoming the preferred tool for modern day espionage.

“We have high level confidence both are Russian intelligence agencies,” Dmitri Alperovitch, Crowdstrike chief technology officer, told Passcode, adding that it remains unclear which Russian agencies are behind the attacks.

“With Fancy Bear we have medium level confidence it’s GRU, which is Russia’s military intelligence agency, and with Cozy Bear we have low level confidence it’s FSB, the Russian federal security service,“ he says.

THE BIGGEST HURDLES TO THE FUTURE ARMY WE NEED

CONRAD CRANE

JUNE 16, 2016

http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/the-biggest-hurdles-to-the-future-army-we-need/

Last month I had the opportunity to participate in a complex wargame as part of the Army’s Unified Quest series that was focused on scenarios in 2030 and 2050. There was much innovative thought on display as the hundreds of participants wrestled with the potential impact of new technology on future battlefields. I was mostly involved with a pseudo-Pacific scenario, but there were teams looking at other geographic areas as well. I was particularly struck by two different ideas: First, the U.S. Army’s historical role in cross-domain dominance will continue to be relevant even as new technologies make warfare more lethal and complicated. Second, for the Army to adapt to this future the toughest barriers to overcome will be legal, bureaucratic, and intellectual rather than technological.

In 1943, Gen. Hap Arnold’s Army Air Forces staff wrestled with a letter from a mother concerned about the morality of the bombing operations her son was executing in Europe. They came up with a reply describing the challenges of restraining warfare in the modern age, which included the statement that “Law cannot limit what physics makes possible.” Military doctrine cannot defy gravity either. The importance of landpower in cross-domain dominance is ensured by physics, as well as by biology. What goes up, must come down. What leaves the land where people dwell must eventually return to it. It should not be surprising that among the Army’s many Wartime Executive Agency Requirements is the running of theater port facilities.

Don't Break America's Military Justice System

Chris Bray

June 16, 2016

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There are no perfect justice systems, and the one built around the court-martial is no exception. But the usual arguments for military justice reform are built on failed comparisons, weak analysis, willful historical blindness and factual imprecision. We can have better military justice—but first we need a better discussion about how to get there. The first problem to address is that our military justice reform debate is an ongoing argument about law and politics that conceals a powerful web of unexamined cultural presumptions. We are having another kind of culture war, but without ever explicitly saying so. To act on the unstated premises driving our current discussion would be to seek out the heart of warrior culture and eradicate it, and to do so in the service of make-believe.

In Congress, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand continues an effort to strip military commanders of their authority to convene courts-martial in sexual-assault cases. Authority over those cases would instead be passed to independent prosecutors in the armed forces, who would supposedly deliberate over accusations in the more balanced manner of local district attorneys, wholly outside the influence of military considerations. In a prepared statement, Gillibrand revealed her underlying premise without quite making it explicit. Justice managed by military commanders isn’t working, she said, so "it’s time to instead put decision making power into the hands of non-biased, professionally trained, military prosecutors.”

A Reluctant Case Against Brexit: Three Central Questions

Patrick Porter

June 16, 2016

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Oscar Wilde quipped that socialism would take too many evenings. So, too, would the process of Britain leaving the EU, let alone adapting to life outside it. For Britain to vote to leave in its referendum next week would neither be end of the world, nor a lurch into isolation, contrary to the overblown claims of Remain advocates. Whatever else happens, Britain is likely to remain a major power, measured on most yardsticks aside from landmass. A Brexit would, however, invite a set of extra costs, risks and problems that would not be worth the modest gain of clawing back some additional control. A withdrawal would probably deplete Britain’s sovereignty in terms of actual ability to govern rather than increase it.

The referendum itself is taking too many evenings. It has been a dismal exercise of misinformation and hysteria, filled to the brim with loose Hitler analogies, argument by association, wild theories of an efficient deep state at work and a strange mixture of jingoism with self-loathing. A prime minister who insisted only months ago that Britain could carry on successfully outside the EU has discovered that this would be a fatal error. He now opines leaving a transnational union is tantamount to isolationism that would trigger mass unemployment and that staying in is the only patriotic choice. The low-quality debate grows from cynical politics that is launched as much to manage internal divisions with the ruling Conservative party as to address a pivotal issue. The experiment in plebiscitary democracy may not settle anything.

A new age of tank warfare may be around the corner

ALEX LOCKIE

JUN 16, 2016
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Last week at Eurosatory 2016, an international defense exhibition, Germany's Rheinmetall unveiled a new and enlarged cannon to be fitted to a new generation of tanks, and perhaps to take part in the next generation of tank warfare.

The standard caliber makes coordination on munitions and procurement easy between allied nations, but it also allows adversary nations to plan against a common offense.

Such is the case with Russia's T-14 Armata tank, which seems to have been designed with NATO's anti-tank capabilities in mind. The Armata features active defenses and explosive reactive armor that the 120 mm smoothbore rounds from a US M1 Abrams or a German Leopard 2 may struggle to pierce.

But defensive features like reactive armor and active defense are modular, and can be added to existing tanks. What can't readily attach to an existing tank is a bigger turret, which the Armata has.

The Armata features a 125 mm main cannon, and Rheinmetall's new turret is just a hair bigger at 130 mm, but these small adjustments make a big impact. According to the company, though they're only increasing the calibre by eight percent, they're providing a 50% increase in kinetic energy to projectiles over the 120 mm turrets NATO uses today.

Will NATO Really Boost Defense Spending at Warsaw?

Dave Majumdar

June 16, 2016

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NATO HQ, BRUSSELS & E-4B NATIONAL AIRBORNE OPERATIONS CENTER OVER THE ATLANTIC—U.S. defense officials are continuing to press their European counterparts to increase their military spending to the NATO minimum standard of two percent of gross domestic product. But a number of questions remain about whether the rest of the alliance will follow through on pledges to boost defense outlays. Convincing America’s NATO allies to meet minimum defense spending targets remains a vexing problem and solving it has eluded previous U.S. administrations—Republican and Democratic alike. 

Like his predecessors, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter—speaking onboard the Pentagon’s Boeing E-4B National Airborne Operations Center en route to NATO headquarters in Brussels on June 13—told a small group of reporters that he would press his counterparts to boost their defense budgets. “You can bet that a continuing theme here and in Warsaw will be for the need for all countries to meet their pledged two percent, and of course, ideally more,” Carter said. “And in some cases, it is more. But at a minimum, two percent of GDP to defense. And absolutely sure I will be emphasizing that.”

Obama’s Drone Revamp Gives Military Bigger Responsibility, Keeps CIA Role

By ADAM ENTOUS and GORDON LUBOLDU
June 16, 2016 

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Long-promised plan seeks to give the U.S. military the lead and increase transparency

WASHINGTON—A long- promised plan by President Barack Obama to shift control of drone campaigns around the world gives the U.S. military more responsibility but retains a Central Intelligence Agency role in the targeted-killing program, according to officials briefed on the arrangement.

Mr. Obama’s plan settles a three-year turf battle among the CIA, the Pentagon and a divided Congress over whether the time has come to scale back the CIA’s quasi-military role 15 years after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The revamp stops short of giving the U.S. military’s Joint Special Operations Command the full control of the drone wars that its congressional backers have sought. It also deals a setback to advocates inside and outside the administration for ending CIA involvement in lethal action so the agency can refocus on its core mission of gathering and analyzing intelligence.

The turf fight between JSOC and the CIA over drones highlights how government agencies and their supporters in Congress compete with one another for counterterrorism resources and, in this case, authority over the coveted role within the bureaucracy of pulling the trigger.