In the first part of this series, I broke down the technical architecture—the datalinks, hardware, and algorithms—that underpins the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) autonomous airpower. Now, we shift from engineering to execution and operational art.
To start, two points to frame our analysis.
First, the timeline. The PLA is working to field many of these autonomous systems and maturing/integrating them into the force by 2035—when the PLA is set to “basically complete” its modernization. This analysis, therefore, focuses on the capabilities and concepts the PLA aims to employ within the next ten years or so.
Second, I want to build on existing scholarship. The China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) recently published an awesome report, “PLA Concepts of UAV Swarms and Manned/Unmanned Teaming,” which provides a thorough survey of the PLA’s doctrinal literature. Here we’re going to apply a lot of the concepts identified by CASI to a specific, high-escalation scenario: a direct conflict with the United States during a Taiwan contingency.
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A Phased, Global War Plan
In a Taiwan conflict, the PLA would prosecute two major campaigns simultaneously: the blockade or invasion itself, and a parallel counter-intervention campaign designed to deter, delay, or defeat U.S. forces.
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