For over three decades, Iran built a web of proxy networks to push its battles far beyond its borders – keeping enemies at bay, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tightened his grip on power. Direct strikes on Iran remained inconceivable.
That image of invincibility crumbled in the space of hours on June 13, when Israel launched a surprise, unprecedented attack deep inside Iran, shattering Tehran’s sense of security and unraveling its carefully cultivated aura of strength.
Its strikes took out top military leaders and some of Iran’s most prominent nuclear scientists, including a few as they slept at home with their families. The human toll was significant, with 627 killed, including at least 49 women and 13 children, according to Hossein Kermanpour, head of the information center at the Ministry of Health. The US joined Israel’s campaign on Sunday, striking three nuclear sites before declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Iran the day after.
Many in Iran and abroad now fear the country’s leadership – its pride and defenses wounded – may tighten its grip at home while adopting a much more hawkish stance in both domestic and foreign policy.
Israel and the US had floated regime change as a potential outcome of their attacks on Iran, which they hoped would result in a state more friendly to them. Their failure to bring this about has prompted the regime to claim victory.
Iran’s leadership has shown resilience, replacing those it lost and carrying out a harsh crackdown on those it sees as being complicit in Israel’s assault.
Signs also point to a regime that is much more paranoid, and likely to rule with a tighter fist at home in fear of cooperation with its enemies.
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