Russia’s concerns regarding threats emanating from the Islamic State Khorasan Province and diversions from north-south transit routes have been the driving factors behind Moscow’s rapprochement with the Taliban.
Afghanistan and Russia are close to establishing official diplomatic relations, but the Kremlin will likely choose a more cautious approach, meaning that official recognition of the Taliban government might still be a distant possibility.
Russia’s shifting posture toward the Taliban fits into the wider regional trends, with the Central Asian countries attempting to build relations with Kabul to improve regional security and connectivity.
In mid-May, Russia hosted the Russia-Afghanistan Business Forum as part of the Russia-Islamic World Economic Forum in Kazan. Russian and Taliban officials discussed developing transit routes to Afghanistan via Central Asia and Pakistan, as well as an additional route through Turkmenistan and the Caspian Sea. Moscow has placed special emphasis on linking the Trans-Afghan Railway (still under construction) with the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), primarily to maintain connectivity to the Indian Ocean (Russia’s Pivot to Asia, May 20).
The event followed a Russian Supreme Court decision in early April that removed the Taliban from the Kremlin’s terrorist list, thus paving the way for official dealings with the de facto ruling government (see EDM, November 13, 2024; The Moscow Times, April 17). The decision was long in the making, as Russia has steadily increased engagement with Kabul since the militant group regained control in August 2021 (see EDM, July 29, 2024, January 15).
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