Zachary Fillingham
According to the head of MI5, Russia is on a mission to ‘generate sustained mayhem on British and European streets.’
The statement refers to a string of high-profile sabotage and arson events that have occurred in Europe since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, ranging from the destruction of undersea cable infrastructure in the Baltic Sea to the burning down of Warsaw’s largest shopping mall, and even the petty harassment of pro-Ukraine public figures in Estonia.
When assessing the manifestations of this continental ‘mayhem,’ a novel modus operandi becomes evident: this is not the work of professional intelligence agents, many of whom are now being forced to operate from Russia having been expelled from their former postings in European states. Rather, the sabotage is being performed by amateurs recruited on social media, some of whom aren’t even legal adults, and typically for love of money more than love of the motherland. Such tactics reflect a fluidity well suited to the digital age, where saboteurs can be recruited, trained, and paid without even coming into contact with state intelligence agents.
On the strategic level, gray zone warfare remains highly appealing in its deniability. Yet as the events below suggest, this could actually be changing as a casualty of the new tactical normal. With more amateur operatives being caught and disclosing the details of their recruitment process, a clearer picture of Russian state involvement emerges, one that is generating in-turn responses from Western states. One example is NATO’s ‘Baltic Sentry,’ which seeks to establish an active military presence in the Baltic Sea to protect critical infrastructure there from sabotage. Another is the Biden administration’s direct warnings of severe consequences should Russian intelligence attempt to send exploding packages to North America. In both we see attempts to delineate limits on gray zone warfare – the establishment of diplomatic and security consequences where before there were none. This process is largely in its infancy however, with both offensive and defensive actors still navigating largely uncharted territory.
BALTIC SEA UNDERSEA CABLE SABOTAGE
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