Rym Momtaz
The NATO alliance is at that moment every relationship eventually struggles with. One side knows the other wants to make changes, but keeps pretending like they can avoid having the tough conversation and hence facing the necessary changes.
Many European allies are trying hard to avoid discussing with the United States the capabilities drawdown that could result from the ongoing American Strategic Posture review. The good news is that it is certainly not all Europeans, and fewer of them are in denial than in 2016, when U.S. President Donald Trump was first elected.
But with a month to go before the next NATO Summit, Europeans would collectively improve their stature and value in Trump’s mind if they engage with the U.S. administration on how to coordinate a reduction in American military presence in Europe. Framing burden-shifting in these terms would be evocative for Trump. The idea would be for Europeans to commit to a timetable over the next six to ten years to ramp up capabilities and readiness, to fill the gaps that would remain if the United States chose to withdraw most of its nonstrategic capabilities.
This time around, success won’t be just about maintaining unity on Russia’s threat and avoiding a blow up with Trump: It will be about whether the allies manage to lay stronger and fairer foundations to carry the NATO alliance forward for decades to come. If the Europeans succeed, this summit could become a landmark moment of strength.
This would show Trump that Europeans are committed, capable, and worthy allies, who are useful in pursuing his goals—and not just engaging in creative accounting to placate him. For a president who does not view alliances favorably, it would be no small feat. Europeans would also benefit: They would be much better equipped to face the growing Russian threat. It would strengthen the NATO alliance and make it more durable because it would be going forward on a fairer footing.
It would also help strengthen the case within the Trump administration for maintaining U.S. leadership in force generation and integration. And it would also help preserve U.S. strategic enablers such as the unrivaled American ability to gather and process intelligence and convert it into actionable military targets, as well as long-range precision fires and the extended nuclear deterrence. These are not capabilities the Europeans could replace over the next ten years.
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