Max Boot
The future of war has arrived in Ukraine. That country’s defenders are able to hold back a Russian advance, even though the Russians have a manpower advantage of as much as 5-to-1 along some parts of the front line, largely by using drones. By some estimates, unmanned aerial systems are now inflicting 70 percent of all casualties on both sides, reducing traditional weapons such as tanks and artillery almost to irrelevance. The war has also ushered in the use of ground-based and sea-based drones — indeed, using the latter, Ukraine managed to defeat Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
The drone revolution necessitates an urgent effort by the U.S. military to catch up, but instead of looking to the 2020s and beyond, the commander in chief has his eyes firmly fixed on the 1980s.
President Donald Trump came to office with dreams of reviving President Ronald Reagan’s plans for using space-based interceptors to protect the United States from nuclear missile attacks. He initially called his blueprint Iron Dome for America, after one of the systems that help protect Israel (a country the size of New Jersey) from missile attack. Now, in keeping with Trump’s fixation with gold (the dominant motif in the redecorated Oval Office), it has been renamed Golden Dome.
Last week, Trump unveiled more details about Golden Dome during an Oval Office event, and named a manager (U.S. Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein) for the project. Trump claims Golden Dome will cost $175 billion to build; protect America not only against intercontinental ballistic missiles but also hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and drones; and be operational by the time he leaves office in 2029.
And, if you believe that, the president has some memecoins he would be happy to sell you. In reality, the cost of developing and operating space-based interceptors is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be as high as $542 billion over the next 20 years, and missile-defense experts say it will take at least 10 years for such a system to be operational — if it’s possible at all. And, even if such a system is deployed, it is very unlikely to provide an effective defense for the entire country against nuclear attack.
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