7 October 2022

Why Russia and China Aren’t Intervening in Central Asia

Asel Doolotkeldieva and Erica Marat

Last month, soldiers from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exchanged gunfire along several points of the countries’ undemarcated border. After a brief cease-fire, fierce fighting resumed and escalated from border areas into the territory of Kyrgyzstan, hitting remote areas of Osh province. Tajikistan’s military destroyed a bridge crossing the Ak-Suu River, residential areas, and businesses. The Tajik military then occupied and erected a flag on a public school in Dostuk village in Batken province. Kyrgyzstan shelled Tajikistan’s border areas well.

The conflict was among the most serious interstate military escalations in Central Asia’s history since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. On the Kyrgyz side, at least 62 civilians and military officers died, 198 were wounded, and roughly 136,000 were internally displaced. The Tajik authorities officially confirmed 41 dead among civilians and military personnel. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned Tajikistan for committing an act of war and claimed that the aggression was premeditated and prepared. The Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs blamed Kyrgyzstan for aggression and violation of norms of international humanitarian law.

The conflict also reveals the limitations of both China- and Russia-led regional security organizations in Central Asia. Both states clashed when China, Russia, and Central Asian countries were gathering at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan—just 200 miles away from the Kyrgyz-Tajik border. Both Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov, were present at the summit and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin while the skirmishes occurred. The conflict was discussed by the Tajik and Kyrgyz presidents at a side event but not at the main venue.

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