Maqbool Shah
The resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) since the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 has exposed fundamental flaws in Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy. Despite decades of military operations, billions in defense spending, and significant tactical successes during operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, Pakistan finds itself confronting an emboldened insurgency that operates with virtual impunity from Afghan territory.
As someone who commanded troops in counterinsurgency operations on contested border regions, I witnessed firsthand how conventional military thinking often proves inadequate against asymmetric threats. The current TTP resurgence demonstrates that Pakistan’s military establishment has learned few lessons from previous campaigns. It continues to pursue tactical solutions to what is fundamentally a strategic and political problem with regional implications extending far beyond Pakistan’s borders.
The Taliban’s Gift to the TTP
The Afghan Taliban’s victory in August 2021 fundamentally altered the strategic landscape for the TTP. Within months of the Taliban takeover, TTP attacks inside Pakistan increased dramatically, with the group claiming responsibility for over 100 attacks in 2022 alone – a significant increase from previous years when the organization appeared weakened and fragmented.
The sanctuary provided by Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has allowed the TTP to rebuild organizational structures, enhance training capabilities, and coordinate operations with a freedom of movement not enjoyed since the peak of the insurgency in 2008-2010. Unlike the fragmented organization that Pakistani forces degraded through sustained military pressure, the current TTP appears more centralized, strategically focused, and tactically sophisticated.
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