Fatemeh Aman
A limited return to Afghanistan would confer immense advantages to Washington while triggering second-order geopolitical repercussions among its rivals.
President Donald Trump’s announcement that he intends to bring Bagram Air Base back under US control has set off fresh debate about America’s role in South and Central Asia. The air base has become a symbol of America’s 20-year war in Afghanistan. The US military abandoned the facility in July 2021 during a chaotic withdrawal that allowed the Taliban to sweep back into power the following month. If the Taliban returns the base, the US military will be entering a country that has undergone great changes since it withdrew. Will a return indicate US willingness to turn back the clock or embrace a new role in the region?
Bagram’s geography alone explains why it matters. The base sits about 1,000 miles from Tehran, just 400 miles from China’s restive Xinjiang province, and less than 800 miles from Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, a vital node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. From this single location, Washington would gain a rare inland vantage point to monitor, and if necessary, counter both Iranian military ambitions and China’s growing economic and security footprint. By seeking to move back into Bagram, Trump is signaling that Afghanistan is no longer primarily a part of the US counterterrorism strategy. Instead, the country would be the central arena of great power competition.
Bagram’s history underscores strategic value. Built in the 1950s, it served as the Soviets’ central hub during the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s. Following the US intervention in 2001, Bagram experienced significant expansion. With two long runways, fortified hangars, sprawling logistics centers, and advanced surveillance systems, it became one of the most capable air bases anywhere outside the continental United States.
Unlike the US military bases in the Persian Gulf, which sit within easy range of Iranian missiles and are subject to the politics of host nations, Bagram could offer greater security and independence. Its position in the heart of Asia provides Washington with direct visibility over three critical theaters: eastern Iran, western China, and Russia’s sphere of influence in Central Asia.
Iran’s Angle
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