11 August 2016

China’s red line on South China Sea

August 9, 2016

From all indications, after warning Japan repeatedly not to interfere in the South China Sea disputes, Beijing decided enough is enough and to signal its displeasure.

Tokyo took it upon itself to go the extra league to needle Beijing by not only expressing solidarity in words (and actions) with the Southeast Asian countries on the South China Sea, but also inciting them.

Tokyo’s statement on the recent Arbitration Tribunal award was perhaps the most strongly worded, out of all countries who voiced opinions on the issue.

Only last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the U.S., Japan and Australia were “fanning the flames” of regional tensions after they released a joint statement urging China not to construct military outposts or reclaim land in the disputed waters in the South China Sea.

After successfully weathering the diplomatic fallout of the Arbitration Tribunal award – recent ASEAN meet and ASEM summit didn’t say a word about it – Beijing has turned to Japan to give Tokyo a taste of how it feels to be provoked.

Hundreds of Chinese fishing boats with over a dozen coast guard vessels flanking them have been spotted in the weekend around the islands in the East China Sea, disputed by China and Japan, which are in the latter’s possession.

Japan also came to know about the installation of a Chinese military-grade radar on a gas platform near the median line between the two nations in the area.

Tokyo is hopping mad, of course. The Japanese foreign minister Fumio Kishida called in the Chinese ambassador Cheng Yonghua twice and is on record as conveying that Sino-Japanese ties are “significantly deteriorating”.

Ambassador Cheng insisted, however, that the islands are an integral part of China. “I told him … it is natural that Chinese ships conduct activity in the waters,” Cheng told reporters. (BBC)

China’s sense of timing is curious. On Monday a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer USS Benford arrived in the Chinese port of Qingdao, the home port of China’s northern fleet, to hold a signal exercise with the Chinese navy.

Again, on Monday, Fidel Ramos, former Philippine President, whom President Rodrigo Duterte has designated as special envoy to China, flew into Hong Kong for talks aimed at rekindling ties with China. Ramos said, “I am just the ice breaker, as they say, to rekindle, to warm up, again, our good, friendly, neighbourly relations with China and that’s all that I have to do”. (Xinhua)

What a coincidence! Indeed, some useful conclusions can be drawn. First, Beijing will not take lightly unnecessary entanglement over its disputes in the South China Sea by outside parties such as Japan.

Second, meddlesome third parties can expect “unnecessary side-effects” – to borrow an expression from a commentary in the Global Times on August 9, titled India should focus on preserving good economic ties with China, rather than on the S. China Sea.

Third, it is up to countries such as Japan (or India) to do cost-benefit analysis and get rid of notions that they may have a role to play in the South China Sea disputes.

Fourth, Tokyo went out on a limb and must now face the music on its own. It is improbable that the US or Australia is looking for a piece of action in the East China Sea where the Chinese boats have assembled.

Finally, China is not losing sleep over the G20 summit in Hangzhou (September 4-5). Of course, China worked hard on the G20 agenda. But then, territorial dispute is a “core issue”. They’re like chalk and cheese.

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