Henry Olsen
Japan announced on Friday that it plans to double its defense spending by 2027. That’s good. We will need it if the United States and its democratic allies are to contain China’s aggression.
Japan has long punched below its weight in global affairs. Despite its massive economy, still the world’s third largest, its tiny military has hobbled its ability to project power.
This was by design. Due to Japan’s humiliating defeat in World War II, combined with its neighbors’ resentment stemming from its aggressive war of conquest, the island nation adopted a pacifist sentiment that persists to this day. Even during the Cold War, Japan spent only about 1 percent of its gross domestic product on self-defense forces.
That’s now going to change. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says Japan will raise that to 2 percent of GDP in five years. This will fund items such as increased cyberdefense capabilities and the conversion of two ships into small aircraft carriers, Japan’s first since World War II. It will also include the purchase of U.S. Tomahawk missiles and the upgrading of Japanese-produced missiles so they can strike targets as far away as China. Together, these weapons will give Japan its first truly offensive military capability in nearly 80 years.
It’s clear why Japan is making such a radical shift: the de facto alliance among Russia, China and North Korea. Each nation has either invaded a peaceful neighbor or engaged in military buildups and saber-rattling in recent years. China has often implicitly threatened Japan should it move to defend Taiwan, including airing a video on the Chinese platform Xigua that threatened to launch a nuclear war. The since-deleted video was clearly intended to frighten Japan, which remains the only nation to have suffered a nuclear attack. Instead, the bullying caused the opposite reaction.
Americans should applaud Japan’s courage. While the United States remains the backbone of any effective pan-Asian defense scheme, it cannot shoulder the burden alone. The United States has global commitments — and cannot abandon them to put all of its might in the Pacific.
The sheer size of the potential theater of operations also works against a purely U.S. defense shield. China will possess the strategic initiative if it attacks, and it could move against U.S. allies in any direction in the Western Pacific. Nearly 3,400 miles separate Japan, our northernmost ally, from Australia in the south. That means the United States must rely on those nations’ defenses if a containment strategy has any hope of working.
Some have long feared that a revitalized Japanese military would empower a return to aggressive behavior. That’s not likely, and the small risk that might arise in the long run pales in comparison to the risk of ignoring China’s current militant behavior. Plus, Japan relies on the United States for most of its most sophisticated weapons, as the purchase of Tomahawks shows. It will also purchase U.S.-made F-35 aircraft to supply its air force rather than produce its own. No nation so dependent on another would dare act against its ally’s interests.
Japan is also working with its allies to develop trust and fighting capacity. Its navy engaged in drills this year with ships from the United States and Britain. It also signed a military cooperation agreement with Australia this October, the first such treaty it has ever entered aside from the mutual defense pact it has with the United States. Japan and Australia will now hold joint military drills, allowing them to learn how to fight alongside one another in any future conflict with China. This also enhances U.S. security, as Japanese-Australian joint capability could help counter any Chinese assault if the United States is distracted elsewhere.
China will be upset about Japan’s announcement, but it has no one to blame but itself. Fifteen years ago, the world watched China’s rapid economic development believing that a richer China meant a richer world. Most in the West hoped that China would join the democratic world as it progressed. Instead, China chose to reassert its traditional claim of hegemony as the world’s “Middle Kingdom” — the center of civilization to which all other nations must bow. That claim is in direct conflict with the rules-based global order the United States and its democratic allies desire. Japan’s move is simply another indication that members of that order are willing to fight to preserve it.
Chinese aggression has forced the world into interesting times. That’s unfortunate, but better to recognize that reality and prepare to fight than blind oneself to the threat and surrender. We should welcome Japan’s commitment with open arms.
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