The Ceasefire in Gaza: Views on Security, Palestinian Governance, and Regional Dynamics

Neomi Neumann, Ghaith al-Omari, Ehud Yaari, Dana Stroul, Soner Cagaptay, James Jeffrey

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A compilation of Washington Institute insights on the profoundly complex tasks ahead—from preventing a Hamas resurgence to promoting Palestinian political reform—and the states and mechanisms likely to carry them out.

Hamas, the Clans, and the Struggle for Control

Neomi Neumann

For Hamas, the ceasefire with Israel carries many risks, but it also opens a window of opportunity to reshape the reality on the ground in Gaza. From the moment it took effect on Friday, October 10,the group began redeploying its security apparatus, sending armed operatives back into the streets, and conducting a violent purge against its opponents, with a focus on Gaza clans suspected of collaborating with Israel during the war. Reports suggest that Hamas has already executed dozens of Gazans, and the group is circulating videos of public executions in order to reassert its dominance and instill fear in the population.

Clashes in the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood of Gaza City, where a Hamas force stormed a residential building held by the Dughmush clan, highlight the emerging power struggle. The anti-Hamas factions include about twelve clans with fewer than 1,500 armed fighters, compared to Hamas’s 15,000–20,000 armed operatives. While this gap reduces the likelihood of full-scale civil war, it increases the risk for assassinations that allow Hamas to consolidate its grip over the population. Of the clans, the largest and most established is Abu Shabab, whose members are concentrated in southeast Gaza near the Kerem Shalom crossing with Israel.

At present, the anti-Hamas clans lack the capability to withstand a direct offensive without external support, thus requiring Israel to act strategically to prevent a scenario of widespread violent retribution. Any future agreement should therefore include an explicit clause guaranteeing the security of the clans and potentially seek to gradually integrate their militias into Israel-controlled areas, with the longer-term goal of placing them under the Palestinian Authority. Such a move could help stabilize the territory, expand the operational space for non-Hamas actors, and thus prevent Hamas from reasserting full control over Gaza.

Principles for Supporting Palestinian Political Reform

Ghaith al-Omari