Geoff Ramsey
In a way, the prize honors not only Machado, but also the millions of Venezuelans eager for change who mobilized around her ahead of the 2024 presidential campaign. Her leadership contributed to the opposition’s overwhelming victory in that election, according to verified independent counts—and galvanized resistance when Maduro blatantly stole it.
The prospects for a peaceful democratic transition in Venezuela remain unclear. Machado has close ties to several members of the Trump administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, he has sent mixed signals on his policy toward Caracas.
The White House initially seemed to favor a more transactional approach to dealing with Maduro. In recent months, however, its actions have become more belligerent. The United States in September sent a large naval deployment to the Caribbean, which it claims is cracking down on the flow of cocaine, fentanyl and other drugs transiting Venezuela. U.S. aircraft have, to date, bombed at least five civilian boats alleged to be carrying drugs. Democrats in Congress have raised concerns about the unauthorized attacks, which have killed at least 27 people.
Expectations that the United States will pursue a more militaristic path in Venezuela are high.
In the wake of the U.S. naval buildup, Machado promised her followers that Maduro’s days in power are numbered, saying in online videos that the regime “is over.” Many Venezuelans, understandably frustrated with years of authoritarian repression and economic chaos, have taken to speculating when, not if, Trump will send the Marines into their country.
Trump on Wednesday confirmed reports that he has already instructed the CIA to carry out covert operations inside Venezuela. That same day, in an interview with CNN, Machado appealed to the United States for help in fighting what she called Maduro’s “war.”
When asked if the White House is considering striking targets inside Venezuelan territory, Trump has refused to rule it out, saying only, “Well, you’re going to find out.” This week, he dropped more hints about such a move. “We are certainly looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday.
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