Oren Liebermann
Anyone who looked at the situation in Gaza on Tuesday might reasonably have concluded that the ceasefire had collapsed.
Israeli forces in Gaza came under grenade and sniper fire in Rafah, according to the military, killing an Israeli soldier. In retaliation, Israel unleashed punishing strikes across Gaza that killed more than 100 people, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
The US-brokered ceasefire looked like it had disintegrated. But by Wednesday morning, both Hamas and Israel had announced they were once again committed to the deal.
It was the second violent escalation since the ceasefire took effect on October 10. But, just like the fighting that occurred nine days later, when two Israeli soldiers and at least 36 Palestinians were killed, it was short, ending within a matter of hours.
Gaza’s new normal seems to be a ceasefire that is both fragile and durable. A truce that holds in general but can vanish in an instant, only to be restored within hours or days.
Until the next escalation.
This situation between all-out conflict and a comprehensive peace provides no closure: Palestinians will be in constant fear of the next wave of deadly strikes, while Israel will teeter perpetually on the brink of war.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week the ceasefire was “not going to be a linear journey.” It would have “ups and downs” and “twists and turns,” he said. Vice President JD Vance said yesterday there would be “little skirmishes here and there.” And yet both were optimistic about the ceasefire holding.
The deal was imposed in large part by the sheer willpower of US President Donald Trump, who reined in Israel, while mediators pressured Hamas to accept. It will take continued US interest to keep the deal intact, especially during the next phase, which requires the creation of an international force for Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas, among other difficult tasks.
An Israeli army flare drifts over an area in the northern Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel, on Tuesday. - Leo Correa/AP
The ceasefire’s fragility is a function of the chasm between what the agreement has so far accomplished and what it has yet to achieve. The fighting has largely stopped. Hamas has turned over the living hostages and more than half of the deceased. Israel has pulled back to the yellow line that demarcates the first withdrawal position inside Gaza.
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