M A Hossain
US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are seemingly on the cusp of a tactical trade deal. Image: X Screengrab
Diplomacy, when stripped of ceremony and handshakes, is really about leverage. And this week in Kuala Lumpur, Donald Trump appears to have rediscovered the old craft of using pressure to invite cooperation. The US President, now again playing the role of negotiator-in-chief, began his week-long diplomacy tour with ASEAN nations amid high expectations — and low trust.
Trump’s advisers are eager to claim victory. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant declared that the mere threat of 100% tariffs “brought China back to the negotiating table.” It’s classic Trumpian strategy: escalate, intimidate, then negotiate. The logic is familiar — you shake the tree until the apples fall.
But history reminds us that coercion has a shelf life. America’s reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals — the stuff that powers everything from fighter jets to smartphones — is not a secret. Roughly 70% of the global supply chain runs through China.
That gives Beijing enormous leverage, especially since 78% of the US military-industrial complex depends on those imports. When Trump threatened to double tariffs, Beijing countered by threatening export restrictions. In that high-stakes standoff, both sides blinked.
The result? A tentative one-year deferral of China’s planned export controls. The United States, in turn, will roll back parts of its tariff escalation and extend the current trade truce. No one’s calling it peace — not yet — but it’s a meaningful pause.
Rare earths, real vulnerabilities
If there’s one thing Washington doesn’t like to admit, it’s dependency. For all the talk about decoupling, the American economy remains deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing. Rare earth minerals are a case in point. The irony is painful: the Pentagon’s most sophisticated missile guidance systems rely on materials refined in China’s industrial heartland.
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