16 October 2025

America's Scale Problem

Mohammed Soliman

Bottom LineAmerica’s military is built for the wrong kind of war. The United States has optimized its defense industry for short, high-tech conflicts using precision weapons, but current global wars require sustained, large-scale production of conventional munitions. This has resulted in a dangerous industrial shortfall where America cannot produce enough basic ammunition like artillery shells and missiles to meet the demands of even two simultaneous regional wars.

Technological superiority can’t replace techno-industrial capacity. The United States has dangerously over-relied on the assumption that its advanced technology can substitute for material superiority. Recent wars demonstrate that even the most advanced weapons are useless without the techno-industrial capacity to produce them in massive quantities, which is a lesson history has repeatedly taught, as seen with Germany’s defeat in World War II due to an inability to match Allied production.

Solving the problem will take time and a shift in thinking. The United States is starting to address its techno-industrial shortcomings by increasing funding and production goals, but rebuilding supply chains, reopening factories, and training a new workforce will take years, not months. Truly fixing the issue requires a fundamental change in military philosophy, moving beyond a focus on cutting-edge, low-volume systems to embrace the strategic importance of mass production and stockpiling conventional munitions.

There is a peculiar irony in watching the world’s most technologically advanced military struggle with something as basic as making enough bullets. Yet this is precisely where America finds itself as it attempts to be able to supply two major conflicts simultaneously. The United States, which revolutionized warfare through precision and technological supremacy, has discovered that modern wars still hinge on an ancient principle: The side with more ammunition often wins.

The revelation is both stark and measurable. Ukraine consumes artillery shells at rates that would have seemed fantastical to Pentagon planners just four years ago. A single Ukrainian battery can fire more 155mm rounds in a day than some American units used in months during the Iraq War. Meanwhile, Israel’s sophisticated air defense networks devour interceptor missiles by the dozen during each Iranian strike, each costing millions and taking months to replace.

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