Down but Not Out? Russia’s Future Military Capacity in the Shadow of its War on Ukraine

Diego Ruiz Palmer

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Key issuesRussia’s failures are real but not final and while its army is battered, it is still able to mass-produce weapons and endure losses;

A dangerous mix persists, as Russia’s weakness in conventional performance coexists with nuclear, cyber and disinformation threats;

NATO’s priority is speed of response, and it must be prepared to win the first battle of any hypothetical conflict with Russia before Moscow can turn conquest or devastation into victory.

Introduction

The war against Ukraine reached this past August a three-and-a-half-year milestone. Despite a deepening mobilisation of resources, Russia has been unable to conquer or defeat Ukraine, or prevent Western military assistance to Ukraine, while its action triggered the largest Western rearmament and economic decoupling effort from Russia since the late 1970s. At the same time, the extent of the devastation wrought upon Ukraine, and the scale of the battlefield losses incurred by Russia, bear witness, tragically, to its capacity to endure adversity, as well as to its determination to dominate Ukraine and bring to heel other former Soviet republics: Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Kazakhstan. Russia’s persistence holds a warning for them, and for the West, that, if it fails to conquer a foreign country, it can and will devastate it.

Against this sombre backdrop, reliably estimating future Russian military capabilities, and Russia’s capacity to regenerate a more capable force, could not be higher in terms of both helping Ukraine resist Russian aggression and strengthening the credibility and effectiveness of NATO’s deterrence and defence posture. Such an estimating exercise must start from the current baseline of a battered army, other Russian military components that are in a better condition and a war economy operating at nearly full strength. Today, Russia mass-produces hundreds of tanks and missiles and thousands of drones a month. At the same time, having the kit alone does not guarantee battlefield success, and the Russian economy is afflicted with several weaknesses: an ageing industrial base; an over-reliance on energy exports; manpower and skill shortfalls; and a growing vulnerability to international sanctions and macro-economic imbalances.