16 October 2025

The sudden risk of a broader South Asian war

Mazhar Siddique Khan

Afghanistan and Pakistan are engaged in a border war. Image: YouTube screengrab

When Afghan Taliban forces opened unprovoked fire across Pakistan’s western border this weekend—from Angoor Adda to Chitral and Baramcha—it was not an isolated act of frontier aggression.

It was a geopolitical tremor, one that could reshape the delicate balance of power across South Asia. Pakistan’s military said 23 of its soldiers were killed by Afghan forces, while at least 29 were injured. An Associated Press report put that figure higher, with an Afghan spokesman claiming 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the exchanges.

Pakistan said “credible intelligence estimates and damage assessment” showed its military killed more than 200 members of the Afghan Taliban regime and militants. The armed border exchanges came days after Kabul accused Islamabad of launching airstrikes inside Afghan territory.

For Pakistan, the skirmish was not merely a border violation; it was a strategic message from a volatile neighbor whose ideological proximity has not translated into political restraint.

The timing of the assault could hardly be more telling. It came as Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister was visiting India, underscoring the suspicions in Islamabad that Kabul’s latest belligerence may be part of a broader recalibration.

For Pakistan, which has spent decades advocating an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process, this betrayal is as strategic as it is symbolic. The Taliban, once viewed by many in Pakistan as a manageable neighbor, now appear determined to assert their autonomy—by force if necessary.
New geopolitical reality

This attack has thrust South Asia into a dangerous new phase. The Taliban’s actions signal a willingness to test Pakistan’s resolve, perhaps as a bid to consolidate internal legitimacy amid economic collapse and international isolation. But the broader implications extend far beyond Kabul and Islamabad.

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