Peyton E. Ugolini, Paul L. Knudsen
Eighty-nine seconds to midnight; this is the current time on the Doomsday Clock, maintained in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. When the clock hits midnight, it means the extinction of humanity is at hand. Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer founded this organization in 1945. It is not a surprise that those who worked on the Manhattan Project would use nuclear risk and global conflict as indicators of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe. Over time, this has evolved to examine various sources of global risks, including emerging technologies and diseases. As we approach midnight, policymakers need to determine how to reset the clock.
The nature of a negotiated settlement after a conflict determines the subsequent position of actors in the conflict continuum, shaping whether the post-conflict environment leans towards competition, crisis, or renewed conflict. Each phase of the conflict continuum corresponds with a greater likelihood of specific game theory opportunities, such that the competition phase enables positive-sum outcomes, crisis engenders zero-sum outcomes, and conflict creates a landscape favoring negative-sum outcomes. To illustrate this, this article will first provide a brief overview of the conflict continuum, game theory, and military operations. Then it will examine several case studies, spanning from historical to contemporary. Following the examination of these case studies, the framework will then consider practical applications including Professional Military Education (PME) and negotiation preparation. Finally, this investigation will respond to potential counterpoints and conclude with a summary of the information discussed.
Background Information
The Conflict Continuum identifies three broad phases of international engagement: Competition, Crisis, and Conflict. Competition below armed conflict exists when two or more nations have incompatible interests but are not seeking armed conflict. Crisis is the gray zone where an emerging threat is detected, and a nation will respond. Crisis could be the result of an adversarial state or non-state actor, or even the mere threat or warning of such an actor. It is also important to note that a crisis can exist when any instrument of national power is threatened or weakened. Armed conflict is the use of violence as the primary means to achieve an objective. Competition is the desired phase of the continuum because this is the time when a nation can prepare for crisis and armed conflict. It is also worth noting that, during the competition phase of the continuum, a nation retains all the advantages of its instruments of national power (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic, otherwise known as DIME). As we transition from competition to armed conflict, we lose our ability to utilize all instruments of national power effectively.
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