Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga
Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, Politburo Standing Committee members Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Li Xi and Vice President Han Zheng arrive for the National Day reception on the eve of the 75th founding anniversary of the People's Republic of China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, September 30, 2024
This commentary was originally published by Foreign Policy on October 7, 2025.
When Chinese military planners, and probably even the Chinese leadership itself, think about a hypothetical future war with the United States, they are very likely worried that the U.S. military will attempt to decapitate the Chinese leadership. This may sound far-fetched to Americans, but there is very strong evidence that Beijing really does worry about U.S. decapitation strikes—and that these fears mean a U.S.-China conflict runs higher escalation risks than previously understood.
The escalation risk comes not just from actual U.S. decapitation strikes but from any U.S. actions that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership view as attempts, or even preparations, for decapitation. Chinese misinterpretation of U.S. actions could lead to an escalation spiral, including Chinese nuclear first use. While it is unlikely that the United States can fully allay Chinese fears, there are steps the U.S. military can take to reduce the risks. These include being particularly cautious about any strikes around Beijing during a potential conflict, evaluating the impact of potential U.S. acquisitions on Chinese perceptions, and clearly communicating that any strike on mainland China would be for stopping an invasion of Taiwan, not decapitation.
The Chinese military has long studied its U.S. counterpart, not only to track the general evolution of warfare but also to specifically redesign itself in preparation for a potential conflict with the United States. One of the key takeaways for Chinese military planners has been that the U.S. way of war includes leadership decapitation strikes, especially at the outset of a conflict. For example, an official Chinese military book from 2020 explains: “The U.S. military, at the start of several recent local [limited] wars, always selected the enemy's military and government heads, command organs, and TV and radio stations as important strike objectives.”
Chinese officials are very clear about the threat posed by the United States to their capital. An official 2013 PLA book notes that a “large-scale strategic raid” is one of China's greatest foreign security threats. Moreover, PLA researchers likely responsible for Beijing's air defense wrote in a 2019 article that their main mission in the future would be defending against U.S. “high-intensity continuous airstrikes.” While these writings may reflect typical military worst-case planning, the threat perception and assessment of U.S. intent are still revealing.
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