1 November 2025

Why Any Deal at the Trump-Xi Summit Is Unlikely to Last

Charlie Campbell

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It was with a red carpet jig that Donald Trump touched down in the Malaysian capital on Sunday morning to be greeted by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim ahead of the 47th ASEAN Summit. But the question remains whether the U.S. President will still be in dancing mood upon the culmination of his six-day Asian tour and especially after Thursday’s pivotal meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Simmering trade tensions between the superpowers boiled over earlier this month with Beijing ramping up export restrictions on rare earth minerals and permanent magnets—materials vital for myriad industrial processes—prompting Washington to hike tariffs on Chinese exports to 130% from Nov. 1.

In Kuala Lumpur, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a “framework” agreement for the leaders to “consummate” has been reached for a tariff truce, including a revival of Chinese purchases of American soybeans, a year-long pause on rare earth restrictions, as well as a “final deal” on the sale of social media platform TikTok in the U.S.

In turn, China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, said the two sides reached a “preliminary consensus” that must now be ratified by each side’s internal approval processes. Certainly, China desperately needs some reprieve from the tariffs as it battles myriad economic challenges, including slowing growth, entrenched deflation, record youth unemployment, and a depressed real estate sector.

“We know China-U.S. relations cannot go back to the past, but we need stability, a soft landing, for the Chinese economy, American economy, and also for the world economy,” says Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.

Still, while much of the world holds out hope that its top two economies with $45 trillion combined output can thrash out a meaningful deal, there is no guarantee. “Bessent’s comments … suggest leaders Xi and Trump will have no formal U.S.-PRC trade agreement to announce on Thursday in Korea,” says Sean King, senior vice president focusing on Asia for consulting firm Park Strategies. “Rather, it seems the two sides have merely come up with yet another framework that just enables them to keep talking.”

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