How Afghanistan Became India’s Gateway to Central Asia

Vlad Paddack, and Eldaniz Gusseinov

Source Link

Afghanistan’s break with Pakistan has created a strategic window for India.

Afghanistan’s trade and diplomacy are shifting in unexpected ways that reflect broader regional realignments. Four years after India shut its Kabul embassy following the Taliban’s return, bilateral trade has nearly rebounded to pre-2021 levels—even as Afghanistan’s trade through Pakistan collapses. This reversal highlights Pakistan’s waning leverage and India’s quiet re-emergence as a key economic and diplomatic player, a trend that increasingly links Afghanistan’s revival to India’s wider westward strategic turn, with Kabul serving as New Delhi’s gateway to Central Asia.

The Revival of Afghan-Indian Trade

Before 2021, India–Afghanistan trade reached $1.33 billion, with India exporting $826 million and importing $509 million in Afghan goods. After the Taliban takeover, India’s exports plunged to $437 million in 2022–23. But by FY 2023–24, trade surged back to $997.7 million, driven by Afghan exports of dried fruits, saffron, nuts, and apples—now duty-free in India. Afghan exports reached a record $642 million, resulting in India’s first trade deficit with Kabul.

Between April 2024 and March 2025 alone, trade reached $1 billion, signaling full recovery by year’s end. Both sides are exploring Iran’s Chabahar Port, developed by India, as a means to bypass Pakistan. India also plans to reopen its Kabul embassy and expand direct flights, reflecting what Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’Souza calls a shift from “cautious engagement” to reconnecting and rebuilding ties.

Afghanistan’s Breakdown With Pakistan

While ties with India deepen, Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan—once its economic lifeline—is collapsing. Transit trade through Pakistan dropped from $7 billion in 2022 to $2.9 billion in 2024, an almost 60 percent fall, due to Islamabad’s anti-smuggling drives, tighter customs, and frequent border closures amid rising border clashes.

Though direct bilateral trade rose modestly, Pakistan’s role as a transit hub has eroded. The decline mirrors political tensions: Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring TTP militants, while Kabul denies it. On October 9, Pakistan launched an unprecedented airstrike on Kabul, coinciding with Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi—an unmistakable signal of shifting loyalties.