Andrew Michta
Xi Jinping President of the People’s Republic of China speak’s at a United Nations Office at Geneva. 18 january 2017. UN Photo / Jean-Marc Ferré
-Because a Russian defeat would free up American power to focus on the Indo-Pacific, Beijing will not allow it.
-Therefore, without major U.S. concessions to China—an unlikely scenario—the war will likely be settled by attrition on the battlefield, not at a negotiating table.
The Key to Stopping the War in Ukraine Lies in Beijing, Not Moscow
The anticipated meeting in Alaska between President Donald J. Trump and President Vladimir Putin has raised expectations that a deal may be in the works to at least broker an armistice between Ukraine and Russia.
The announcement following Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow sparked a flurry of activity in Kyiv and European capitals, with Europeans issuing statements about their enduring solidarity with Ukraine and what they expect the deal not to include, particularly regarding territorial concessions that would compromise Ukraine’s interests.
It is clear that, as far as the US administration is concerned, this is for the most part a bilateral US-Russian negotiation, with neither Ukraine nor the Europeans included so far.
The question remains whether the upcoming Alaska meeting will substantially alter the trajectory of how the conflict in Ukraine has unfolded – and is likely to continue unfolding going forward. And most importantly, whether any armistice deal brokered at the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska – should it come to that — will hold, for it would have to contain provisions that would compel Moscow to adhere to it going forward, rather than pursuing the path to victory that Putin believes is ultimately his.
Trump’s Russia Reset
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