What to Expect From the Trump-Putin Alaska Summit

Charles A. Kupchan, Liana Fix, and Paul B. Stares

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The August 15 summit at a U.S. air base in Alaska between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump culminates months of diplomatic efforts by the White House to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Trump entered office vowing to end the three-year war swiftly, and he initially focused much of the blame for his peacemaking challenges on Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

However, in recent months Trump has directed more criticism at Putin for relentless and increasingly destructive Russian attacks on Ukraine, setting an early August deadline for Russia to show genuine commitment to a ceasefire or face harsher sanctions. As the deadline approached, Russian and U.S. officials agreed to a bilateral summit to try to reach common ground. Their decision to exclude Zelenskyy from the meeting raised alarm in both Kyiv and European capitals about what sort of deal—and Ukrainian territorial concessions—Putin and Trump could agree to.

Ahead of the summit, CFR asked three fellows who have closely tracked the war to assess the possible best-and worst-case outcomes, as well as what they consider the most realistic scenario and its consequences for European security.

The best summit outcome would be if Trump forges a framework agreement with Putin that can earn the support of Ukraine and NATO allies. Following the Alaska summit, Trump would begin discussing the deal with Zelenskyy and NATO leaders to build a unified transatlantic position that can then serve as the basis for further negotiations with Russia.

Such an agreement would likely have the following elements: A ceasefire in place, potentially including minor land swaps;

Neither Ukraine nor the West would recognize the 20 percent of Ukraine occupied by Russia as Russian territory, but they would agree not to attempt to retake it by force;

Russia would acknowledge that the 80 percent of Ukraine still controlled by Kyiv is a free, sovereign, and independent country. A free Ukraine would have the right to acquire the military capability to defend itself and to choose its future alignment, including European Union membership;