Benjamin Jensen
As the United States and Russia prepare to engage in a historic meeting in Alaska about the future of the war in Ukraine, a major technical issue remains unresolved: What will a ceasefire look like? Ceasefires are one of the most dangerous moments in a conflict cycle. While both sides are often exhausted, they are still bargaining and seeking to end the war on more favorable terms at the negotiating table. This makes it essential to start thinking about what an international ceasefire-monitoring force would need to look like to set conditions for ending the war in Ukraine.
Q1: What’s the current risk of failure?
A1: High. Based on historical analysis, 31 percent of interstate wars end in a stalemate under ceasefire agreements, which halts large-scale violence but leaves underlying disputes unresolved. Worse still, most ceasefires experience minor failures within 10 days, with larger failures tending to occur between 65 and 193 days. When external monitors are involved, it tends to reduce large-scale violence but not minor clashes. This means that any ceasefire in Ukraine is almost certain to fail absent some external monitoring and security guarantee.
Second, Russia has a track record of breaking past ceasefires. Ukraine accuses Moscow of violating 25 ceasefire agreements since 2014. The Minsk I Protocol (2014) and subsequent memorandum quickly broke down and paved the way for renewed offensives. Moscow has historically used ceasefires more as a way to position forces on the battlefield than as a way to seek long-term peace. Even the Minsk II agreement only slowed fighting to the contact line in the Donbas while setting the stage for the 2022 invasion. This track record further reinforces the historical trend: Lasting ceasefires need a mix of monitors and security guarantees. Securing time and space for peace negotiations today will require unmanned aerial surveillance, real-time sensors, and multinational enforcement contingents.
Q2: What would a durable ceasefire require?
A2: External ceasefire monitors and international security guarantees. If President Trump can convince Putin to declare a ceasefire and usher in multilateral negotiations involving Ukraine and the European Union, there will need to be significant monitoring and external security guarantees. Past failures like Minsk illustrate that vague buffer zones and unarmed monitors do not stop hostilities. A more robust model—potentially combining Ukrainian forces, NATO observers, or neutral peacekeepers—that could monitor over 1,000 kilometers of front and deter local counterattacks would consist of drone swarms, artillery, and fighter jets supporting assault teams.
No comments:
Post a Comment