Robert Sutter
The clashing interests of the United States and China sustain their continuing rivalry in Asia, the main determinant of regional dynamics. The struggle focuses on the Indo-Pacific countries ranging from India in the west to Japan in the northeast, and Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands in the southeast. Other factors in regional dynamics – such as North Korea’s threats and the ongoing civil war in Myanmar – remain secondary.
The major escalation of superpower competition in Asia began with hardened U.S. policies countering the multifaceted adverse challenges from China. These polices began during the first Trump administration (2017-2021) and developed strongly during the Biden administration (2021-2025). To the United States, a hostile China gaining regional leadership and dominance would represent an existential threat comparable to the threat posed by Imperial Japan in the dark days after the attack on Pearl Harbor. For 70 years, major U.S. sacrifices to avoid such dominance by an adversary included very costly wars in Korea and Vietnam.
A centerpiece in President Joe Biden’s argument for re-election – and, following his withdrawal from the race, the election of his vice president, Kamala Harris – in 2024 was his administration’s achievement in building U.S. economic, high technology, and military strengths at home while strengthening growing U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s adverse ambitions. He repeatedly claimed to have “checked” China.
Indeed, Biden strengthened the United States domestically with legislation worth $2 trillion supporting modern infrastructure and high technology development. He sustained Trump administration tariffs on Chinese imports and added to them in the fields of high technology and advanced industry. He curbed the sale of U.S. highly advanced semiconductor technology, significantly complicating China’s high technology ambitions.
He and his administration went on the offensive in supporting multilateral international arrangements countering China, including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, India, and Japan; the AUKUS security and high technology agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom; the Japan-South Korea-U.S. cooperative framework; and various other bilateral and multilateral arrangements. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s support for Russia saw Biden lead Western and Indo-Pacific allies and partners in supporting Ukraine, sanctioning Russia, and deterring Chinese expansionism in Asia.
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