Bob Krumm
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s address to the nation’s generals and admirals last week received mixed reviews. Many veterans and lower-ranking servicemembers applauded his remarks. His critics, however, called them “embarrassing,” “abhorrent,” and “completely unnecessary.” Contrary to the critics, Secretary Hegseth’s comments—particularly on physical fitness standards—were both accurate and long overdue.
When I was assigned to Iraq as an Operations Research Analyst, my office had the responsibility for validating all the data in the database of significant activities, or “SigActs.” Because we used that data to learn quantitative lessons about the war, it was important that it be correct. Consequently, I saw every final report about the death of an American throughout my time in Iraq.
In early 2008 it was uncommon for a day to pass without an American death. However, by spring the “Surge” showed positive results. There were many days without a combat death—sometimes several days in a row. I was back in Iraq again in mid-2009 and the downward trend continued. By the time I left in the spring of 2010, there often were weeks in a row without an American combat casualty.
However, that good news was tempered by something I observed in the data midway through my second deployment. Non-combat-related deaths occurred at the rate of about four to six a month. By late 2009 that number matched, and often surpassed, the number of combat deaths.
I was curious. I dug up the old data going back to the beginning of the Surge. Excluding accidents and adjusted for the population of American service members in Iraq, there was a steady rate of non-combat deaths. Non-combat deaths were mere statistical noise when Americans were dying in numbers of 30 to 50 or more monthly, but by the end of 2009 they were as numerous as combat deaths.
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