James Durso
China is rapidly expanding its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, investing $25 billion in Central Asia in early 2025 alone.
Analysts warn that regional connectivity must be balanced with security cooperation.
The infrastructure boom raises risks of smuggling, trafficking, and transnational crime across increasingly open borders.
When war in Afghanistan ended in 2021, the Central Asian republics could now focus on investments in human development and physical infrastructure without the prospect of violence spilling over the border from Afghanistan.
One of the republics, Uzbekistan, pursued what Yunis Sharifli has called a “multi-vector transport strategy” coupled with a “good neighbor” foreign policy.
The region has seen many proposed regional transport links, such as the Kabul and Kandahar corridors through Afghanistan to Pakistan, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the China-Kazakhstan railway, and the Intentional North-South Transport Corridor, and the Middle Corridor.
Though these corridors will facilitate investment and trade, they are a significant incentive for smuggling and illicit trading.
The International Institute for Central Asia in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, recently queried “whether greater connectivity could create new vulnerabilities for the movement of illicit goods, extremist networks, and transnational crime.”
The smugglers - they are really transport specialists - may move narcotics today, weapons next week, then branch into humans, rare animals, and antiquities. As a side note, antiquities trafficking may be a new concern for Uzbekistan as it raises its profile as a destination for cultural tourism and the restoration of historic sites.
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