Ann Marie Dailey
Since multiple Russian drones crossed into Poland last month, European leaders have expedited the idea of a “drone wall” and rushed to discuss the need to invest in countering drones. But when it comes to European defense, Russian attack drones are not the true problem. The problem is an erosion of the pillars of nuclear and conventional deterrence.
This erosion has myriad causes, but the impact is that Russia feels emboldened to test NATO’s political will by, among other things, flying attack drones at or over a NATO nation. Over-investing in a “drone wall” would be a waste of precious resources that would be better spent on other defense priorities, it would not deter Russia, and perhaps most importantly, it wouldn’t even defend against pressing vectors of drone-use violence that Europe is likely to face.
Yes, Europe and the United States should be working with Ukraine and investing in research and development to improve what are currently a host of inadequate options for countering uncrewed aerial systems (UAS, aka “drones”). But instead of focusing on defending against drones from the east, Europe should invest in its ability to strike back at Russia and take steps to demonstrate a willingness to use these capabilities.
Russian Attack Drones are Not the Problem
A Shahed-type drone launched from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could theoretically range any European capital (except possibly Lisbon, depending on the variant), but Russia has been able to threaten all of Europe with ballistic and cruise missiles for a long time. Yes, it can have an effect more cheaply, but a Shahed’s characteristics make it relatively easy to track, and something launched from Kaliningrad or much of western Russia would be traceable.
The issue is not that Russia is now attacking Europe for the first time. This has been occurring at least since the 2007 cyber-attacks against Estonia. And it isn’t that Russia now has access to a technology that allows it to attack all of Europe from the air. That’s been true since the 1950s. And it’s not that this is the first time Russia has violated NATO airspace. That occurred even before Russia invaded Ukraine, to include a NATO nation shooting down a Russian airplane. So,
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