Daniel Williams
Almost in tandem, Russia and China have expanded their hostilities with Taiwan and Ukraine, respectively, to allies of each.
Russia sent fighter aircraft into the territory of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is supplying weapons and intelligence to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion.
At sea and in the sky, China is moving to tighten its grip in areas around Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its own, with low-intensity intimidation.
The incidents that have become frequent in recent weeks fall under the category of “gray zone” activity, in which countries take action against enemies because the low-intensity attacks are unlikely to attract military retaliation from the targeted countries.
Both Beijing and Moscow have used gray zone tactics for years. Russia has employed methods even before its first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and its second full-scale one that began in 2022:
Those include military aircraft overflights around Western Europe, cyberattacks on NATO allied countries, sabotage of infrastructure, damage to undersea communication cables, interference with electronic navigation tools, misinformation campaigns and financing activities of pro-Kremlin politicians abroad.
China’s menu is similar, though much of it doubles as rehearsals for a possible invasion or blockade of Taiwan.
On Saturday, Poland scrambled fighter jets in response to a massive Russian bombardment of Ukraine, some of which occurred close to the Polish border.
The day before, three Russian fighter jets flew over Estonia, a former Soviet republic that joined NATO after it gained independence. NATO jets scrambled and the Russian MIG-31 jets retired.
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