Narco-Terrorism as Grey-Zone Warfare: Pakistan’s Hidden Front Against India

The Cipher Brief | Siddhant Kishore

Pakistan-facilitated narcotics trafficking into India constitutes a deliberate grey-zone strategy, blending profit with subversion and demanding greater US attention. Drug proceeds fund anti-India Salafi-Jihadist groups, erode social stability, and sustain transnational networks, undermining Indo-US strategic convergence. India's Narcotics Control Bureau reported drone-related trafficking cases along the India-Pakistan border skyrocketed from three in 2021 to 179 in 2024, with 163 incidents in Punjab.

How The Rise Of Pro-Pak Jamaat Is Tearing Apart Secularism In Bangladesh – OpEd

Eurasia Review  |  Aleya Sheikh

Bangladesh experienced a political vacuum following Sheikh Hasina’s government fall on August 5, 2024, due to a mass student uprising, which Jamaat-e-Islami swiftly filled. The previously banned party re-emerged, immediately attacking the nation's constitutional secularism. The interim government's Constitution Reform Commission recommended removing secularism, socialism, and nationalism, proposing "equality, human dignity, social justice and pluralism" instead, with Jamaat pushing for further dilution.

China’s Expanding Frontiers

The Strategist  |  Joe Keary, Raji Rajagopalan, Linus Cohen

China is pursuing its interests in the Indo-Pacific through a long-term strategy of gradually shifting the regional status quo, rather than immediate displacement of the United States. This approach involves naval modernisation, grey-zone tactics, and a multi-force coercion toolkit to normalize its presence. Beijing's campaign includes increased military activity, frequent resupply and medical visits to regional ports, regular presence of surveillance ships, and integrating naval functions into dual-use logistics facilities, alongside a larger role for the China Coast Guard.

Winning the Systems War: Why the Army Should Reorganize Itself for Modern Combat

Irregular Warfare | Ryan Walters

China's military analysts, observing America's decisive Desert Storm victory, concluded they could not compete directly, instead developing a "systems confrontation" strategy to exploit U.S. warfighting vulnerabilities. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) views an army as a living network, targeting its seams across contested littorals, orbital space, information environments, public opinion, and legal domains.

‘Five-alarm fire’: Lawmakers say Pentagon must act after smartphone data used to target U.S. troops

The Washington Times  |  Ben Wolfgang

A bipartisan group of lawmakers warned that adversaries' ability to use commercial smartphone location data to find and target U.S. troops in the Middle East constitutes a “five-alarm fire” demanding immediate action. In a letter to Defense Department CIO Kirsten A. Davies, 14 members of Congress urged the DoD to address “ubiquitous technical surveillance” (UTS), or “digital exhaust,” which includes location data easily purchased from data brokers.

CSIS Commission on U.S. Cyber Force Generation

CSIS  |  Joshua Stiefel, Ed Cardon, Lauryn Williams, Taylar Rajic, Matt Pearl, Erica D. Lonergan

The CSIS Commission on U.S. Cyber Force Generation convened senior defense, technology, and national security experts over 10 months to examine how the United States can best organize and sustain a dedicated cyber service. Facing increasing cyber threats in scale and sophistication, the commission evaluated critical structural, operational, and workforce challenges within the current cyber ecosystem, specifically addressing talent shortages, fragmented authorities, and barriers to readiness.

Armenia, Azerbaijan and the unfinished peace

Engelsberg Ideas | Thomas de Waal

Armenia, following two military defeats and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, is pursuing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and diversifying its foreign policy beyond Russia. This aims to normalize relations for the first time since the Soviet Union's collapse, transforming the South Caucasus into a transit hub.

Tough love: Spies, dating apps and the dark side of online intimacy

EUvsDisinfo

Russian intelligence services are actively leveraging dating applications, including Tinder, as operational terrain to recruit assets, gather information, and spread propaganda against Ukrainian and Western military personnel since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. These platforms provide hostile actors with target profiles, location data, and direct access to emotionally vulnerable individuals, facilitating recruitment through fake profiles, impersonation, and subsequent blackmail or tasking for sabotage, as documented by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and SBU.

Israel’s Strategic Problem

Geopolitical Futures  |  George Friedman

Israel faces a profoundly weak strategic position, being only 9 to 71 miles wide, which denies it defensive depth and time to recover from attacks. This geographical vulnerability necessitates a military doctrine focused on pre-emptive combat and early defeat of enemies, requiring the Israel Defense Forces to maintain significant power superiority.

Putin remains uncompromising on Ukraine, but is public discourse on war changing in Russia?

BBC  |  Steve Rosenberg

Vladimir Putin remains uncompromising on Ukraine, asserting Russia's war aims are being met despite the conflict entering its fifth year as a bloody war of attrition. Russia continues massive missile and drone strikes, demanding Ukraine cede the entire Donbas region, and escalating attacks in response to challenges like a growing budget deficit and economic stagnation.

Ukraine Turns the Tide: Why a Cease-Fire Is Now a Real Possibility

Foreign Affairs | Jack Watling

Ukraine's military performance has reached a turning point, fostering optimism in Kyiv that a cease-fire with Russia is now a real possibility. Russian attacks are exerting less pressure, and their combat performance is waning, contrasting with 2024 and 2025 when Russia out-recruited losses. Ukraine addressed manpower issues by establishing army corps for training, extending basic training, and implementing mobilization reforms with better pay and defined service durations.

On Springtime Battlefield In War’s Fifth Year, Ukraine Claws Back Territory – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Yehor Lohinov, Mike Eckel

Ukraine's forces clawed back more territory from Russian troops than they lost in mid-May, marking the second such instance this year in the war's fifth fighting season. This incremental gain, though not a tipping point, suggests a better general situation for Ukraine than in several years, with Russian advances largely stalled and a net loss of ground according to DeepState and the Institute for the Study of War.

Congress quietly moves to integrate US and Israeli militaries

Responsible Statecraft  |  Ben Freeman

The U.S. Congress has proposed Section 224, titled “United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative,” within the House's 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This provision aims to significantly integrate the U.S. and Israeli militaries beyond the over $200 billion in military assistance Israel has received since 1948. It establishes bilateral research and development, co-production of weapons, joint ventures, and data fusion across defense technologies like AI, quantum, autonomous systems, and cyber.

A Hard Offer To Refuse: Ukraine’s Strategic Pitch To A Middle East In Flux – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Arthur Michelino

Ukraine is strategically offering its unique expertise in defeating Iranian Shahed-136 drones to Gulf states, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, which are currently experiencing sustained Iranian drone and missile campaigns. This offer leverages Russia's inability to protect its Gulf partners from its own ally, Iran, despite years of accommodating Russian capital.

Digital Sovereignty Is in the Fine Print

Project Syndicate  |  Gabriela Ramos, Emilija Stojmenova Duh

Most countries remain significantly dependent on American tech firms for the provision of their core government services, a situation persisting despite their considerable efforts to develop indigenous digital industries and robust infrastructure. This widespread reliance on cloud infrastructure and essential software platforms, predominantly owned by a handful of powerful technology companies based largely in the United States, poses a critical challenge to national autonomy.

GROUND UP: MODERNISING LAND FORCES IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC

IISS

India, Indonesia, and Japan are pursuing markedly different land-force modernization strategies, driven by their unique security contexts and approaches. India is focused on equipping its army for large-scale conventional combat operations, a direct result of its long-standing territorial disputes with both of its nuclear-armed neighbors. The Indonesian Army is shifting back to its roots with a renewed focus on local territorial defence, socio-economic missions, and increasing personnel numbers, which may come at a financial cost of reducing equipment procurement.

From Ukraine to Israel, the Death of the Tank Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

Newsweek

Hezbollah's cheap, locally built drones, costing $300-$400, have been effectively targeting Israeli tanks, soldiers, and bulldozers in southern Lebanon, even penetrating the Merkava's Trophy protection system. This mirrors footage from the Ukraine war, where Russian and Ukrainian tanks were destroyed by quadcopters. Despite these incidents, which highlight tanks' vulnerability to inexpensive drone attacks from above, the notion of the tank's obsolescence is premature.

‘The arteries of modern civilization’: The US and allies take action to protect seabed cables

CNN | Tim Lister

The United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom are developing unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs) as part of their trilateral AUKUS defense pact to protect seabed cables and pipelines from sabotage threats. This initiative, announced at a defense ministers' meeting in Singapore with deliveries due next year, addresses a growing risk of Russian and Chinese sabotage, alongside concerns about Iran exploiting data networks in the Persian Gulf.

Niall Ferguson: AI Is the Most Dangerous Arms Race in History

The Free Press  |  Niall Ferguson

The modern artificial intelligence race between the U.S. and China is the most dangerous arms race in history, mirroring 20th-century nuclear brinkmanship, and currently lacks the strategic doctrine and arms control necessary for stabilization. Niall Ferguson warns that while AI promises extraordinary benefits like medical breakthroughs and economic growth, its rapid, largely unregulated development poses profound financial and geopolitical risks.

Kinetic Escalation in the Persian Gulf: The Dangerous New Cycle of U.S.-Iran Confrontation and a Global Polycrisis

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The Persian Gulf has become an epicenter of U.S.-Iran confrontation, beginning with a U.S. precision-guided Hellfire missile strike disabling the Botswana-flagged VLCC M/T Lexie, suspected of illicit Iranian crude exports. This action, intended to reinforce sanctions, escalated when American forces targeted military infrastructure on Iran's Qeshm Island, including communications and command-and-control facilities.

What Is Maven Smart System, and What Does It Do?

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Matt Mande and Gregory C. Allen

The United States utilized the Maven Smart System (MSS) to strike over 1,000 targets during the initial 24 hours of the war in Iran, achieving a tenfold increase in targeting capability compared to the pre-MSS era. This Department of Defense flagship AI-enabled software platform originated from Project Maven (founded 2017) and is primarily integrated by Palantir, whose contract surpassed $1 billion by May 2025.

Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East

Foreign Affairs

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in February 2026, following Israel's 12-day war in June 2025, failed to collapse the Islamic Republic, instead transforming it into a more resilient and nationalistic state. Initial U.S. expectations of a quick victory and regime change proved unattainable, as Iran retained military capacity and avoided popular uprising despite extensive bombing and a naval blockade.

What Persia Taught Alexander

Real Clear Defense  |  Dennis T. Cosgrove

The "Great Game" has shifted from Central Asia to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States risks misunderstanding the strategic contest. Iran, positioned at the intersection of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Gulf, possesses a civilizational legacy and historical ties that shape its worldview and deep suspicion of external pressure, especially after the 1953 coup.

Space Force Wants 5 New Tactical Ops Centers for Electronic Warfare

Air & Space Forces Magazine  |  Todd South

The Space Force aims to enhance its electronic warfare capabilities by establishing five new tactical EW centers across the U.S. and globally, a critical need underscored by recent Iranian attacks on USSF infrastructure and assets during Operation Epic Fury. Brig. Gen. Christopher Fernengel reported that space capabilities were targeted and destroyed for the first time, with adversaries increasingly using kinetic and cyber weapons against Space Force systems.

Modern war and the systemic learning deficit in Western military institutions

Lowy Institute

Western military institutions, including Australia's, exhibit a systemic learning deficit, failing to rapidly integrate lessons from modern conflicts like Ukraine and Iran. Despite unprecedented visibility into battlefield innovations, Western forces have not institutionalized key insights into doctrine, force structure, or procurement priorities. This creates a structural disadvantage against an "authoritarian knowledge market" formed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, where battlefield insights transfer rapidly.

How many years behind China is India?

The Indic Prism  |  Rohit Shinde

India lags China significantly across multiple economic and developmental metrics, with the gap often widening rather than converging. In nominal GDP per capita, India is approximately 18 years behind China, reaching China's 2007-08 level of around $2,900. When measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP per capita, India trails China by about 12 years.

A Review of India's 2023 Space Policy and Entrepreneurship Ecosystem

Carnegie India | Harshan Vazhakunnam

India's space sector is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a government-centric model to one increasingly accommodating private enterprise. The 2020 space reforms and the Indian Space Policy (ISP) 2023 have redefined public and private participation, projecting India's space economy to grow fivefold from $8.4 billion in 2022 to $44 billion by 2033.

Pakistan’s Diplomatic Pivot Makes It a Trump-Era Power Player

Foreign Policy | Azeem Ibrahim

Pakistan has strategically pivoted its diplomatic approach, positioning itself as a significant power player during the Trump administration. Islamabad has adeptly learned to present its diplomatic initiatives in a manner that aligns with the U.S. president's desired public image. This calculated strategy allows Pakistan to leverage its interactions with the United States, potentially enhancing its influence and achieving its foreign policy objectives.

China Aims A.I. at Predicting Who Could Pose a Political Risk

The New York Times  |  Julian E. Barnes

A Chinese company, Geedge Networks, is developing artificial intelligence-powered technology to enable authoritarian governments to not only monitor dissidents but also predict who might become one in the future. This work, appearing to be in the research stage with its government-supported MESA Lab, aims to generate profiles of Chinese citizens by examining location data and internet use to highlight individuals posing a political risk.

Iran Embraces a Forever War

Foreign Affairs  |  Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar

For the past two months, Iran and the United States have engaged in intermittent and ultimately unsuccessful peace negotiations. These discussions followed a very shaky cease-fire agreement established in early April. Throughout this period, officials from both nations exchanged and subsequently rejected various long-term proposals, indicating a fundamental disagreement on the terms for a lasting resolution.

Operation Jailbreak: the Army’s massive push to hack its own systems and make them talk to each other

DefenseScoop | Drew F. Lawrence

The U.S. Army launched "Operation Jailbreak," a month-long "hackathon" at Fort Carson, bringing together engineers from over 50 defense companies to integrate its disparate military systems. This initiative, part of the new Right to Integrate (R2I) strategy, aims to dismantle long-standing connectivity restrictions preventing missile systems, tanks, and drones from exchanging data.

Soldiers do not care about your milestones. Build accordingly.

LinkedIn  |  Matthew Paul

The U.S. Army is transitioning its software development from legacy waterfall systems to commercial, cloud-enabled platforms utilizing Agile principles and DevSecOps. The primary challenge, however, is not technological but cultural, requiring a sustained commitment to modern software practices. Successful programs must recognize that software is never truly "done," necessitating continuous evolution and treating sustainment as a core responsibility.

A Trump Deal With Iran Could Spell Trouble for Netanyahu

Foreign Policy  |  Aaron David Miller, Daniel C. Kurtzer

U.S. President Donald Trump consistently employs a "bully pulpit" strategy, threatening adversaries and allies with severe consequences to achieve his objectives. This approach has yielded mixed results, such as compelling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a 20-point Gaza peace plan in October 2025 after Trump threatened to withdraw support.

Foreign Policy Analysis and Trump: Risk, Iran, and the Limits of Decision-Making Models –

E-International Relations | Kristian Alexander

Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran represents a consequential use of force, emerging from a complex interplay of strategic calculation, political instinct, and leadership style. This action challenges existing Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) frameworks, requiring a hybrid approach to understand a decision-making process that is both structured and deeply personal.

The Semantic Pixel: Why the U.S. Must Build the Ultimate Multi-Modal Foundation Model

The Cipher Brief  |  Mark Munsell

The United States must develop a National Geospatial-Intelligence Embedding Model (NGEM) to maintain decision advantage, building upon commercial advancements like Google DeepMind's AlphaEarth Foundations (AEF) model, released in July 2025. While AEF provides pixel-level geospatial embeddings, the proposed NGEM would integrate the intelligence community's diverse multi-physics and temporally deep data.

The Epidemic of GPS Jamming

Foreign Policy  |  Elisabeth Braw

On May 21, UK Defense Secretary John Healey's Royal Air Force plane, a Dassault Falcon 900LX, experienced satellite signal jamming, likely by Russia, during his return flight from Estonia after visiting British troops. This incident underscores a persistent and rapidly growing global epidemic of GPS disruption, impacting signals crucial for safe air and sea travel.

Arms Trends in Ukraine: 25 May - 31 May, 2026

Ukraine's Arms Monitor  |  Olena Kryzhanivska

Sweden will provide Ukraine with a major military assistance package worth approximately $2.7 billion, including 16 Gripen C/D fighter jets equipped with Meteor long-range air-to-air missiles. Ukrainian pilots are already training in Sweden, with deliveries of used aircraft expected by early 2027 and newer Gripen E/F models by 2030, aiming for 100-150 total.

False Targets, Real Survivability: Here’s What’s Keeping the Army from Borrowing Ukraine’s Air Defense Decoy Techniques

Modern War Institute  |  Trevor Alexander, Christopher Burlison

Ukraine's Patriot air defense units successfully employ medium-fidelity decoys to deceive Russian targeting, maintain critical infrastructure coverage, and increase enemy costs. Despite Russian claims of destroying numerous Patriot systems, Ukraine's limited seven batteries (as of October 2025) remain operational, showcasing decoy effectiveness. These cheap, attritable decoys, often made from wood and salvaged parts, force Russia to expend intelligence and matériel resources.

How a monster ocean heatwave could fuel a super El Niño

The Bulletin | Mariana Bernardi Bif, Franz Philip Tuchen

An over 80 percent chance of an El Niño event emerging by July 2026, coupled with a 9,000-mile marine heatwave forming in the North Pacific since late 2025, is raising scientific concerns about a potential "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño. These concurrent extreme warming events could prolong marine heatwaves, disrupt fisheries and ecosystems, and intensify global climate impacts into 2027.

Your Phone Is Watching You Right Now — Here's How to Prove It

Dejuremedia | Joshua Biddle

A global surveillance system, GAEN (Google/Apple Exposure Notification), continuously broadcasts smartphone locations, even when devices are off, according to an investigation. A whistleblower, "Brutus," in Central America, used a free Bluetooth scanner app to uncover devices with illegal, unregistered MAC addresses tracking individuals via device signatures and geographic encoding into "15-minute zones."

Deterrence Is Not Enough in the Age of Synthetic Asymmetry

The Cipher Brief | Dr. Dave Venable

Traditional deterrence is insufficient against synthetic asymmetry, an era where technological convergence enables small actors to impose disproportionate costs on states through diffuse, deniable, and mutating threats. This challenge, exemplified by incidents like the Colonial Pipeline attack and NotPetya, renders Cold War security strategies obsolete due to attribution breakdown and the low cost of attack versus high cost of kinetic response.

Managing the Strategic Gradient: Governance, Doctrine, and the Logic of Irregular War

Small Wars Journal | Andrew Rolander

French military intervention in Mali with Operation Serval in 2013, followed by Operation Barkhane, initially pushed jihadist fighters out but ultimately led to a less stable Sahel and French expulsion by 2022. This recurring pattern highlights a fundamental failure of irregular warfare doctrine to recognize the "governance gradient"—the dynamic movement of population allegiance between competing authority systems in transitional political spaces.

FIGHTING LENS: MILITARY DOCTRINE AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE IN ASIA

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Military doctrines are strong indicators of how armed forces plan and intend to fight, with the United States, China, and India preparing for potential wars in the Asia-Pacific. The US military doctrine focuses on denying China a fait accompli seizure of Taiwan by establishing capabilities for sustained defense, resilience, counter-air, anti-surface warfare, and countering anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) operations.

Invisible Conflict: Defending Against Hybrid Non-Kinetic Warfare

The Cipher Brief | Gilad Ben-Ziv

Iran-linked hackers recently targeted critical infrastructure in the US, disrupting multiple oil, gas, and water facilities, and a major medical device maker's operations, including an emergency system for first responders. This exemplifies hybrid non-kinetic warfare, a strategy where threat actors orchestrate prolonged campaigns to destabilize adversaries and erode social cohesion without triggering military retaliation.

The Killing Machine: Ten Thousand Years and We Still Haven’t Figured This Out

Small Wars Journal

Organized warfare over ten millennia has consistently failed to reduce civilian casualties, which now constitute 60%–90% of total conflict fatalities in modern urban combat, despite extraordinary technical advancements. In 2025, the Action on Armed Violence project recorded 45,362 civilians killed or injured by explosive weapons, with 97% of these casualties occurring in populated areas.

The Indispensable Interceptor: Air Defense and the Problem of Cost-Exchange Logic

Modern War Institute  |  Peter Mitchell

Iran's October 2024 launch of two hundred ballistic missiles at Israel demonstrated the indispensable role of high-end air defense systems like Patriot, THAAD, Aegis, and Arrow. While Admiral Brad Cooper noted success in flipping the cost curve for drone warfare, applying this cost-exchange logic to advanced interceptors risks undermining defense against catastrophic threats.

How America’s Adversaries Compete Across Peace and War

The Cipher Brief  |  Dave Pitts

Iran, facing precise and lethal U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28, 2026, did not surrender, instead demonstrating a strategy of "Endless Warfare." This approach, also adopted by other U.S. adversaries, involves persistent confrontation operating both below and above the threshold of open conflict, aiming for cumulative gains and exhausting U.S.

Armies Can’t Win Wars Alone

Real Clear Defense  |  David A. Deptula

The claim that wars are won solely by conquering and occupying ground is challenged as an enduring, overly simplistic, and misleading cliché. Modern military campaigns succeed through integrated capabilities across all domains—land, sea, air, space, and cyber—to achieve defined political objectives, which do not always necessitate occupation or territorial conquest.

Opinion – What the Iran War Vindicates about Clausewitz

E-International Relations  |  Andrew Latham

The U.S.–Iran war vindicates Carl von Clausewitz, not merely as a catalog of war's enduring features, but as a diagnostician of Washington's strategic failures. The conflict demonstrates an inversion of the means-ends relationship, where military operations dictated political objectives, leading to an undefined political end state. This lack of a legible terminal condition means the war merely pauses, rather than concludes.

Political Research Is Always Ethically and Politically Suspect

E-International Relations | Krishna Batabyal

Political research is inherently ethically and politically suspect, raising legitimate questions about power and values rather than being invalid. Research relationships feature structural power asymmetries, unpredictable harms, and compromised consent. Fujii (2012) highlights the power imbalance between researcher and researched, where consent is influenced by social pressure or perceived benefits, and Pachirat (2009) shows neutrality is an illusion.

India’s Semiconductor Ecosystem Is Maturing—and ASML Is Taking Notice

Carnegie India | Konark Bhandari

ASML, the Netherlands-based semiconductor lithography machine manufacturer, recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Tata Electronics to accelerate the establishment of Tata’s semiconductor fab in Dholera, India. This partnership reflects India's maturing semiconductor ecosystem, which has also attracted Tokyo Electron, Merck Electronics, ROHM, and Intel. India offers a crucial new market for ASML, especially as Dutch firms face restrictions on selling semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) to China.

Pakistan Monthly Roundup: May 2026

Brief

Pakistan's army chief undertook two trips to Tehran and accompanied the Prime Minister to Beijing in May 2026, signaling significant diplomatic and strategic engagements. The Punjab wheat procurement model collapsed, with private aggregators securing less than a fifth of their revised target. Inflation was projected to hit 11.0 to 11.5 percent year-on-year, a 23-month high.

The 11th NPT Review Conference ends with a whimper

The Bulletin

The 11th Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) concluded in deadlock, mirroring outcomes in 2015 and 2022, primarily due to an unresolved regional dispute concerning Iran. The United States insisted on explicitly naming Iran for non-compliance with the treaty, while Iran rejected any mention of its “peaceful nuclear program,” leading to an impasse.

Can China Stop Its Demographic Slide? Can the United States?

RAND  |  Michael Pollard, Jennifer Bouey, Tahina Montoya, Kelly Atkinson

China faces a significant demographic decline, with its fertility rate continuing to slump despite policy changes like allowing two children in 2015 and three in 2021. RAND researchers project China could end this century with 786 million fewer people, impacting its military security by needing better recruits for a technologically advanced force, and its economic security due to an aging, shrinking workforce increasing pension and healthcare costs.

Is Beijing the world’s ‘living room’? China is enjoying the global stage, but there are limits to its influence

The Conversation

Recent state visits to Beijing by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, alongside other world leaders, have positioned China in the global spotlight, leading some analysts to describe it as a "stabilising force" and an "indispensable global power." Chinese media even characterized Beijing as an international "living room" and declared the world was entering "Beijing time."

The Quad’s new agenda: ports, cables and minerals

Asia Times  |  Vivek Y Kelkar

The Quad foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi unveiled new initiatives on Pacific infrastructure, maritime surveillance, critical mineral partnerships, and maritime domain awareness, signaling a strategic shift beyond military balances. Decisions included supporting a port in Fiji and India's Great Nicobar project, reflecting the growing importance of infrastructure, logistics networks, and maritime corridors for trade and energy flows in the Indo-Pacific.

Can Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Rebound?

National Interest  |  Mohammed Ayoob

The Iran War has severely impacted Tehran's "Axis of Resistance," a loose network of state and non-state actors across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza. US-Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and attrition of key partners like Hamas and Hezbollah have weakened the axis structurally, but not fatally. Its future depends on organizational resilience, Iran's capacity to reconstitute networks, and shifting regional politics.

Chinese Missile Might Have Been Used to Shoot Down F-15E in Iran – U.S. Officials

The Aviationist | Parth Satam

U.S. officials are investigating the possibility that a Chinese-made shoulder-fired Man-Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) missile was used to shoot down a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran on May 30, 2026. This follows earlier Donald Trump’s hints from April and denials from the Chinese Embassy regarding Chinese weapon transfers.

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s Security Dilemma

Geopolitical Futures  |  Hilal Khashan

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established in 1981 by six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf, primarily to counter the security threats posed by their more powerful and ambitious neighbors, Iran and Iraq. Despite this foundational objective, the GCC member states have demonstrably struggled to achieve comprehensive military cooperation and robust defense integration.

Iran attacks damage 20 US military sites since start of war, satellite images show

BBC  |  Merlyn Thomas, Alex Murray, Matt Murphy

Iran has damaged 20 US military sites across eight Middle Eastern countries since the start of the war, satellite images and videos analyzed by BBC Verify reveal. This suggests Iran's counter-attacks are more extensive and precise than publicly acknowledged, inflicting millions of dollars in damage to state-of-the-art air defense systems, refuelling aircraft, and radars.

As the Pentagon Pushes for Battlefield AI, Some Military Leaders Urge Caution

Real Clear Defense  |  Konstantin Toropin

The Trump administration is actively promoting the integration of artificial intelligence into the U.S. military, aiming to leverage it as a unique American advantage. However, this push faces significant caution from some military leaders, including ADM Frank Bradley, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, who emphasizes the need for careful employment of AI, especially concerning its role in delivering lethality and ensuring human confidence in target determination.

Armies Can’t Win Wars Alone

Real Clear Defense  |  David A. Deptula

The claim that wars can only be won by conquering and occupying ground is a misleading cliché in American defense commentary, often attacking the false "airpower alone" proposition. Modern military campaigns succeed by integrating capabilities across domains to achieve defined political objectives, which do not always require occupation or territorial conquest.

Could Trump’s Iran ‘excursion’ be a bigger global turning point than Vietnam?

The Guardian | Patrick Wintour

Donald Trump's "excursion to Iran," despite its smaller scale compared to the Vietnam War with only 13 US casualties, is widely perceived as a defeat and a potential geopolitical turning point for the United States. This conflict, viewed as ill-conceived due to confused objectives and bad planning, confirmed cheap drones as a significant "leveller" in modern warfare and depleted US missile stores.

Lebanon

FrameTheGlobeNews

Israel has intensified its military operations in southern Lebanon, conducting drone strikes, airstrikes, and re-occupying sovereign territory, leading to significant civilian casualties and displacement. On May 31st, 2026, Israeli soldiers planted their flag at Beaufort Castle, a site previously occupied until 2000, marking a "decisive shift" according to Netanyahu.

A World on the Brink: The 2026 Middle East Crisis and the Dawn of a Global Polycrisis

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The Middle East geopolitical landscape in 2026 has reached a critical boiling point, marked by direct military confrontations and diplomatic collapse involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. US-Iran military engagement in the Strait of Hormuz, including US self-defense strikes and Iranian retaliation, prompted Iran to threaten blocking the Strait and end peace talks with the US.

Ukraine Turns the Tide: Why a Cease-Fire Is Now a Real Possibility

Foreign Affairs  |  Jack Watling

The war in Ukraine has reached a pivotal turning point, fundamentally altering the established rhythm of Russia's full-scale invasion that solidified following Ukraine's unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive. Historically, the conflict adhered to a predictable cycle of intense summer and winter offensives, with intervening lulls allowing Russian forces to rotate and regroup.

Putin’s $300,000,000,000 Was Supposed to Make Russia Untouchable in the Ukraine War — the West Froze It Overnight

National Security Journal  |  Andrew Latham

Western nations froze Russia's nearly $300 billion in sovereign assets overnight following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite Moscow's years-long strategy to build reserves and reduce dollar dependency. This action, intended to punish Russia, also revealed the potent weaponization of Western financial power. Russia's pre-2022 financial strategy, which included paying down external debt and deliberately cutting the dollar’s share of its holdings, rested on the fatal assumption that assets held within the Western financial system would remain accessible during a confrontation.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Partnership Gains Momentum

Eurasia Daily Monitor  |  Roza Bayramli

Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan are rapidly strengthening bilateral relations, with Ambassador Bahrom Ashrafkhanov stating on June 1, 2026, that ties are experiencing unprecedented development. Azerbaijan's formal admission to the C6 format in November 2025 established a broader geopolitical and geo-economic space linking Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This partnership reinforces Baku’s role as the South Caucasus anchor for westward connectivity and provides Tashkent access to the Caspian Sea, Türkiye, and European markets, alongside global investment and energy opportunities.

It’s Ideology, Stupid

Persuasion  |  Matt Johnson

Samuel P. Huntington's 1993 "clash of civilizations" thesis, predicting global conflict along cultural and religious fault lines, is fundamentally challenged by contemporary geopolitical realities. Huntington argued that eight civilizations would inevitably clash due to insuperable differences, and that "Western ideas" like democracy had little resonance outside Western culture.

As the Pentagon pushes for battlefield AI, some military leaders urge caution

The Hindu

The Trump administration is aggressively advancing the use of artificial intelligence within the U.S. military, despite significant calls for caution from some technology companies and senior military leaders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth advocates for rapid AI evolution, rejecting models that limit "lawful military applications" and emphasizing systems operating "without ideological constraints."

FIGHTING LENS: MILITARY DOCTRINE AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE IN ASIA

IISS

The United States' military doctrine in the Asia-Pacific focuses on denying China a fait accompli seizure of Taiwan by establishing capabilities for sustained defense, resilience, counter-air operations, anti-surface warfare, and countering anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) operations. China’s doctrine envisions ‘systems-destruction warfare’ through multi-domain joint operations, employing a counter-intervention strategy to deter US and allied involvement in support of Taiwan.

U.S. Says It Hit More Military Targets in Southern Iran

The New York Times  |  Yan Zhuang, Farnaz Fassihi, Sanam Mahoozi

The United States said on Sunday that it had attacked military targets in southern Iran over the weekend, the latest in a series of attacks over the past week. Less than an hour later, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps retaliated, targeting a military base from which it claimed an American strike originated.

How the arrival of quantum technologies will challenge defence policymakers

IISS  |  Dongyoun Cho

Quantum technologies will make a significant impact on the defence and security sector in the near future, particularly in terms of sensing, communications, and computing. The rapid emergence of these advanced capabilities, however, poses substantial and complex issues for defence policymakers. This is primarily because existing governance measures and regulatory frameworks are currently unable to keep pace with the swift development and deployment of new technologies.

The Emergence of Cognitive Intelligence (COGINT) as a New Military Intelligence Collection Discipline

Tandfonline  |  Saar Conde, Andrew Whiskeyman

Cognitive Intelligence (COGINT) emerges as a new military intelligence collection discipline, systematically mapping, safeguarding, and exploiting decision-making architectures in the contemporary cognitive battlespace. This discipline focuses on understanding, protecting, and strategically leveraging human cognition in modern conflict, addressing a critical gap in Fifth-Generation Warfare (5GW) force projection, influence, and strategic finality capabilities.

The Rise of Tunnel Warfare as a Tactical, Operational, and Strategic Issue

Taylor & Francis Online  |  Daphné Richemond-Barak, Stefan Voiculescu-Holvad

The presence of tunnels on a battlefield significantly impacts all mission aspects, from tactical engagements to broader operational and strategic ramifications. Militaries have historically struggled with subterranean threats, as evidenced by U.S. losses in the Pacific and Vietnam, and French difficulties in Mali against AQIM. This domain exposes the limits of modern precision warfare, often leading states to employ highly destructive measures.

The Indian Ocean Gap in U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Real Clear Defense  |  Sue Ghosh Stricklett

The United States and India's current strategic framework, established between 2005 and 2008, is now insufficient for the Indo-Pacific's transformed geopolitical environment, particularly given China's emergence as a near-peer military competitor. China's military modernization, industrial scale, and maritime expansion increasingly challenge the regional balance of power, exposing a critical gap in U.S.

What the 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict Revealed about Modern Warfare

The National Interest  |  Afeera Firdous, Sahar Khan, Haleema Saadia

The 2025 India-Pakistan conflict demonstrated a critical transition from platform-centric to system-centric warfare, characterized by beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat and distributed kill chains. On May 6–7, 2025, over 100 fighter aircraft engaged, with success depending on sensor-to-shooter speed and network integrity. Pakistan notably used Chinese-origin PL-15E missiles guided by airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platforms in a "radar-silent" approach, highlighting fighters acting as network nodes.

Remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (As

Department of War  |  Pete Hegseth

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, speaking at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, outlined a new U.S. national defense strategy for the Pacific, emphasizing a shift from dependency to true partnership based on aligned national interests. Under President Trump, the U.S. aims to reestablish deterrence and a "favorable but durable balance of power," preventing any single hegemon, including China, from dominating the region.

Japanese minister rejects ‘new militarism’ label from China in Shangri-La speech

South China Morning Post | Alcott Wei and Amber Wang

Japan's defence minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, rejected China's "new militarism" label at the Shangri-La Dialogue, asserting that changes to Japan's defence strategy aim for a new cooperative role. Koizumi opposed "unilateral changes to the status quo by force or coercion," implicitly targeting Beijing's maritime activities and potential military action regarding Taiwan.

Beijing Trip Report

Michael McFaul  |  Michael McFaul

During a recent trip to Beijing, Michael McFaul observed significant Chinese confidence in their rising global power, particularly following the Trump-Xi and Xi-Putin summits. Chinese academics and officials widely perceived the United States as a declining power, a view reinforced by Trump's perceived weakness and his acceptance of China's "constructive strategic stability" framing.

China and Maritime Chokepoints: Hormuz, Malacca, and Indo-Pacific Vulnerability

The Diplomat | Scott N. Romaniuk, László Csicsmann, and Amparo Pamela Fabe

The Strait of Hormuz became a focal point of regional tensions following United States and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, leading to heightened Iranian shipping restrictions and a blockade that renewed global concern over strategic maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Malacca. While Hormuz is an energy chokepoint, Malacca is a network-dependent systemic trade chokepoint, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans and critical for Middle East, Africa, and East Asia.

China’s Ministry Of State Security: The Spies Disrupting The West – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Patrick Omam

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) has significantly expanded its foreign intelligence operations, targeting Western institutions and critical infrastructure through cyber-warfare and economic espionage to achieve geopolitical and technological dominance. The MSS prioritizes low-friction operations to acquire intellectual property, trade secrets, and new technologies, which are central to Beijing's development strategy.

Taiwan’s more relaxed than most of us about Trumpian deal-making

Asia Times  |  Bill Emmott

The Beijing summit on May 14-15 between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, and a planned September 24 meeting in Washington, DC, raised global concerns that Taiwan's future might be traded off in a superpower deal. Despite fears of the US softening support for Taiwan in exchange for Chinese help in the Iran war or reduced US weapons sales for Chinese purchases, no such deal emerged from the secretive Beijing summit.

The Three-Body Problem: Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications

CSBA  |  Eric Edelman

The United States faces an unprecedented challenge in simultaneously deterring two nuclear peers, China and Russia, which are developing and deploying capabilities threatening the U.S. nuclear system. The potential for joint, concerted action by these nations further complicates deterrence calculus, raising the prospect of nuclear decapitation, an issue last confronted by policymakers some 40 years ago.

How America can remain the world’s AI superpower

The Washington Post  |  Hal Brands

The United States must implement essential steps to maintain its position as the world's artificial intelligence superpower, a status critical for national security and economic prosperity. This strategic imperative arises from a direct competition with China, which is rapidly advancing its own AI capabilities and seeking global influence.

Severity Of America’s Depleted Advanced Weapons Stockpiles Detailed In New Report

TWZ  |  Howard Altman

The United States' 39-day war with Iran severely depleted its advanced weapons stockpiles, particularly critical standoff and air and missile defense systems, creating a strategic vulnerability. A new Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report details that rebuilding these stocks, including Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs), THAAD, and Patriot interceptors, will require three or more years to reach pre-war levels.

China’s AI Heist: How to Counter Beijing’s Unauthorized “Distillation”

Foreign Affairs | Jared Dunnmon, Avanika Narayan, Jon Saad-Falcon

The U.S.-China competition in artificial intelligence has expanded to open-weight, local AI models, where Chinese firms are gaining a significant advantage through unauthorized "distillation." Chinese companies systematically extract capabilities from frontier American AI systems by training smaller, more efficient models to mimic sophisticated U.S. ones at an industrial scale, a practice U.S.

Iran War: How Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Commodity Supply Chains

Foreign Policy | Maxine Davey

An Iran War, specifically one leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, poses a profound and pervasive threat to global commodity supply chains. This critical chokepoint, vital for international trade, if disrupted, would trigger widespread and severe downstream consequences across numerous sectors. The article's central argument posits that no commodity would be safe from the repercussions, ranging from essential energy resources like fossil fuels to high-tech components such as semiconductors, and even consumer goods including Diet Coke and agricultural necessities like fertilizer.

Has Iran won the war by not losing?

Engelsberg Ideas  |  Ibrahim Al-Marashi, Tanya Goudsouzian

Iran's survival strategy has effectively leveraged geo-economic warfare, demonstrating its ability to withstand US-Israel bombardment since February 28 and defy predictions of regime collapse. The Islamic Republic's approach, characterized by endurance and positional advantage, has redefined modern combat. Iran claims victory by not losing, showcasing its capacity to manipulate hydrocarbon prices, highlight the risks of American military bases to Gulf neighbors, and repeatedly strike Israel, at times overwhelming its missile defenses.

The UAE’s Policy To Promote Division VS Muslim Unity

Frame the Globe News

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has implemented a "strategy of separation" across the Arab world, supporting separatist movements, warlords, and parallel military structures to fragment states rather than stabilize them. In Yemen, the UAE operated secret prisons, engaged in torture, and backed southern security forces, entrenching a de facto partition.

Are US and Iran close to peace or sliding back to war?

BBC  |  Paul Adams

US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday he was "not satisfied" with the terms of a deal being negotiated with Iran, despite a framework agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension. This follows a week testing the ceasefire, which began on April 8, with Iran responding to US strikes on Bandar Abbas by attacking an American air base, leading Centcom to intercept a ballistic missile over Kuwait.

C.I.A. Officer Arrested With Gold Once Worked With No. 2 Pentagon Official

The New York Times  |  Julian E. Barnes, Mark Mazzetti

A C.I.A. officer, David Rush, was arrested last week with over $40 million in gold bars in his home, having previously worked with Stephen A. Feinberg, now the deputy secretary of defense. Rush, a 49-year-old C.I.A. officer for 17 years in the Directorate of Science and Technology, was arrested on May 18.

America’s way of war isn’t working

Politico Europe  |  Ivo Daalder

The U.S. military, despite its unparalleled power, has not won a major war in over 30 years, with the 1991 Gulf War being its sole genuine success since 1945. This consistent failure reflects a deep flaw in America's approach to conflict, which inverts Carl von Clausewitz's theory by treating war as a policy failure rather than its continuation.

How the ‘American Way of War’ failed in Iran

UnHerd  |  Michael Lind

America's latest hot war with the Islamic Republic of Iran appears to be concluding inconclusively, with Washington resuming limited bombing in the Persian Gulf while a memorandum of understanding awaits approval from President Trump and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. This conflict, which caused immediate global economic consequences through rising oil prices, is presented as the latest in a series of American strategic failures since World War II.

Trump’s Least Bad Option in Iran: The Logic Behind a Limited Deal

Foreign Affairs

Joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran initiated a Middle East war, resulting in strategic limbo and dueling blockades that have closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing 14 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil from world markets. Despite weeks of punishing airstrikes, Iran remains defiant, with U.S. and Iranian negotiating positions far apart, compounded by ongoing U.S.