Will Manila and Hanoi’s maritime deal challenge Beijing in the South China Sea?

South China Morning Post  |  Alyssa Chen

The Philippines and Vietnam have established a new maritime cooperation agreement aimed at countering Beijing's regional strategy in the South China Sea. This bilateral pact directly chips away at China's preferred tactic of conducting only one-on-one negotiations with individual claimant states to resolve overlapping territorial disputes. A decade after Beijing rejected the ruling by The Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding its expansive claims, rival nations continue to actively manoeuvre for control.

Digital Chokepoint: Why Defending the Red Sea is a Trillion-Dollar Financial Prerequisite

Real Clear Defense  |  Lise Korson

The United States must transition to a conditional, technology-driven grand bargain with Beijing to permanently secure Middle East chokepoints and protect over $10 trillion in daily global financial transactions. This strategic shift requires leveraging America's absolute computational advantage in artificial intelligence photonics infrastructure to secure verifiable Chinese naval de-escalation in the Pacific.

The U.S. Marine Corps Concept for “Stand-In Forces”

China Maritime Studies Institute  |  Yue Zhiqiang, Wang Li, Li Jinqiao

The United States Marine Corps is deploying Stand-In Forces within the weapons engagement zone to counter regional maritime adversaries through persistent, highly lethal forward operations. These specialized expeditionary units conduct reconnaissance, establish long-range target custody, and execute rapid littoral strikes to disrupt and deceive enemy forces in contested coastal areas.

Countering China’s A2/AD Capabilities

Real Clear Defense  |  James Steels

United States military forces plan to counter China's expanding A2/AD capabilities during a potential Taiwan conflict by systematically dismantling Beijing's sophisticated sensor and missile networks. This coordinated operational approach aims to degrade Chinese targeting systems rather than merely intercepting individual missile strikes, thereby securing critical maritime access within the contested theater.

The 2025 Pentagon Assessment of Chinese Nuclear Weapons Capabilities

National Institute for Public Policy  |  Mark B. Schneider

The People’s Liberation Army is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal toward parity with the United States, despite a December 2025 Pentagon report claiming a temporary slowdown in warhead production. This massive modernization effort has positioned Beijing to exceed 1,000 operational warheads by 2030 and potentially achieve strategic nuclear peer status within five years.

Artificial Intelligence Arms Control Would be a Disastrous Mistake

Real Clear Defense  |  Michaela Dodge, Michael Hochberg

The United States and China are rapidly accelerating investments in artificial intelligence capabilities, creating an intense technological competition that threatens to reshape the global balance of power. While Beijing advocates for international AI regulations and arms control frameworks, these diplomatic initiatives are designed to disproportionately disadvantage Washington by slowing Western innovation while China covertly bypasses compliance.

China’s Telecom Forward Base: How Military-Civil Fusion Weaponizes Global Networks

Small Wars Journal | Gerald Mako

China's military-civil fusion doctrine has systematically converted global telecommunications networks into a forward-operating base for the People's Liberation Army and Ministry of State Security. This strategy leverages campaigns like Salt Typhoon to compromise edge devices worldwide, securing durable, low-and-slow access that survives routine patching cycles. These operations exploit legal mandates under the 2017 National Intelligence Law, which obligates all domestic organizations and citizens to support state intelligence efforts.

Hormuz, Malacca, and the Intractability of Geoeconomics in Geopolitics

Providence | Francis P. Sempa

The United States military is executing a $65.8 billion shipbuilding strategy alongside targeted geoeconomic maneuvers to secure critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca against Chinese and Iranian aggression. This integrated approach aims to exploit China's acute vulnerability to energy disruptions along its primary Middle Eastern supply routes.

Inside the terrifying Pete Hegseth purge pushing the US army to breaking point

The Independent | Eric Lewis

United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is systematically overriding merit board procedures to block minority and female officer advancements, pushing the armed forces toward a leadership crisis. This controversial policy has already blocked the promotions of 40 people this year alone, drawing sharp criticism from former military commanders.

The Politicization of the U.S. Military Did Not Start With Trump

Foreign Policy | Julian E. Zelizer

The United States military has experienced a long history of politicisation that contradicts modern nostalgia depicting the armed forces as historically insulated from partisan conflict. This historical reality is demonstrated by past civil-military tensions, notably the high-profile relationship and strategic friction between President Harry Truman and General Douglas MacArthur.

Fundamental Deterrence Challenges and Tailoring

National Institute for Public Policy  |  Keith B. Payne

United States nuclear and non-nuclear force postures must adapt to a bipartisan policy of tailoring deterrence to the unique characteristics of diverse adversaries. This strategic shift requires a larger, more flexible standing arsenal capable of holding various high-value, hardened point targets at risk to prevent conflict and maintain regional stability.

Pete Hegseth Called Anthropic a ‘National Security Risk.’ Now CISA Is Using It.

National Interest  |  Peter Suciu

The United States Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has deployed Anthropic’s restricted Mythos artificial intelligence model to audit federal software code for critical vulnerabilities. This deployment directly challenges the Pentagon's previous designation of the developer as a national security risk, highlighting deep policy inconsistencies within the American government regarding advanced technology adoption.

The Value of U.S. Land Power

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Jerry McGinn, Jason Paul "JP" Gresh, Alek Jovovic

U.S. land power is undergoing intense scrutiny regarding its roles and missions due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran alongside escalating competition in the Indo-Pacific. This strategic reassessment, published on July 14, 2026, by Jerry McGinn, Jason Paul "JP" Gresh, and Alek Jovovic, evaluates the utility of land forces within the broader joint force.

Gas Crisis Increasingly Serious Political Problem for Putin

The Jamestown Foundation | Paul Goble

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have triggered severe domestic gasoline shortages, rapidly destabilising the Kremlin’s political control ahead of the September Duma elections. This fuel crisis has sparked widespread public anger over unequal resource distribution, as elites receive preferential access while ordinary citizens face worsening shortages.

Putin Will Turn a Cease-Fire Into a Weapon

Foreign Affairs  |  Michael Kimmage, Hanna Notte

Russia is highly likely to exploit any future negotiated cease-fire in Ukraine to consolidate its territorial gains, reconstitute its depleted military forces, and prepare for subsequent offensive operations. This strategic pause would allow Moscow to weaponise diplomacy, fracturing Western political cohesion and undermining international support for Kyiv's long-term security.

Understanding Russia-Iran Collaboration in Cyberspace

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Nikita Shah and Justin Sherman

Russian and Iranian cyber operations in the 2026 United States-Iran conflict have triggered widespread concern, yet claims of deep bilateral cyber warfare collaboration remain largely unsubstantiated by open-source intelligence. Unverified reports suggest joint targeting of Israeli infrastructure, but these activities lack the strategic impact of proven drone technology transfers.

Ukraine’s Logistics Targeting Raises Questions for Russia’s Rear Defences

Royal United Services Institute  |  Emily Ferris

Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian military supply chains and fuel infrastructure around Crimea have severely disrupted Moscow's rear logistics. These coordinated attacks on the R-280 Novorossiya highway and Kerch Strait ferries force Russian forces to reroute vulnerable truck convoys onto secondary roads, exposing critical structural vulnerabilities in Russia's rear defences.

The Next Phase in Ukraine’s War With Russia: The Battle for Minds

The New York Times  |  Carlotta Gall, Oleksandr Chubko

Ukrainian military and civilian leaders have launched a new cognitive influence initiative to weaken public support in Russia for the war and disrupt Moscow's mobilization capabilities. Spearheaded by drone pioneer Maria Berlinska through her newly formed nonprofit Victory Neurones, this strategic shift prioritizes psychological operations over purely kinetic drone warfare.

The Return Of War: Ukraine And Iran Wars Have Outgrown The Hybrid

Eurasia Review  |  Nitish Kumar

The conventional conflicts in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate that hybrid warfare strategies have escalated into open, high-intensity military confrontations. This transition occurred as both Moscow and Tehran crossed critical adversarial red lines, shifting from deniable proxy operations and disinformation campaigns to direct, state-led military actions that threaten the existing global security order.

A Robot Army Remakes Ground Warfare in Ukraine

The New York Times  |  Maria Varenikova, Paul Mozur

Ukrainian infantry battalions are deploying thousands of tracked and wheeled ground robots monthly to conduct supply deliveries, ammunition transport, casualty evacuations, and mine-laying operations. These unmanned ground vehicles have recently advanced to executing direct trench assaults, enabling frontline forces to capture Russian-held positions without exposing soldiers to direct enemy fire.

Beijing Wants to Lock Down AI. Washington Should Open It Up

The American Conservative | Mark A. Jamison

China is considering tight export controls on its advanced artificial intelligence models to guard its domestic technological advantages as national security assets. Meanwhile, a Chinese developer recently released an AI model trained on indigenous chips that performs on par with Anthropic's Mythos on cybersecurity, threatening to bypass existing American cyber defenses.

Insights from table-top exercises in Europe on AI safety and cyber misuse

RAND Corporation | Afek Shamir, Henri van Soest, Stephen Clare, Sana Zakaria

RAND Europe, the UK AI Security Institute, and Mila conducted three table-top exercises with senior government officials in Germany, the Netherlands, and France to simulate an AI-enabled cybersecurity crisis. The simulations, grounded in the 2026 International AI Safety Report, evaluated national responses to the exploitation of a fictional government-backed frontier AI model and an open-weight competitor.

Development of off-road autonomy for unmanned ground vehicles

Norwegian Defence Research Establishment  |  Marius Thoresen, Magnus Baksaas, Niels Hygum Nielsen, Eilert André Mentzoni, Morten Hanevold, David Kolden, Brage Gerdssønn Eikanger, Kim Mathiassen

The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment has developed and evaluated a modular autonomy stack on its Milrem Themis unmanned ground vehicle, named Tor, to enhance off-road navigation capabilities. This system integrates perception, motion planning, and trajectory tracking to navigate without predefined paths or satellite positioning, aiming to reduce operator workload during tactical military operations.

Designing Adaptive Thinkers: How Cognitive Interventions Shape Innovation and Decision-Making in Military Organizations

Small Wars Journal | Cara Wrigley, Murray Simons

Military organizations are utilizing structured cognitive interventions, known as epistemic devices, to reshape how personnel frame complex problems, mitigate cognitive bias, and make decisions under extreme uncertainty. These designed activities, which include systems mapping and red-teaming, serve as critical mechanisms to deliberately build and sustain adaptive thinking capabilities across defense institutions.

Into the Deep: Special Forces and the Future of Large-Scale Combat

Modern War Institute  |  Charlie Phelps

US Army Special Forces must adapt to conduct deep area operations and deep strike to disrupt peer adversaries like China and Russia in future large-scale combat operations. By infiltrating denied areas to neutralize critical command-and-control nodes, logistics hubs, and air defense systems, these specialized units extend the joint force's operational reach.

Files relating to Kudankulam nuclear power plant exposed in data breach: report

The Hindu

The Kudankulam nuclear power plant in India has reportedly suffered a significant data breach exposing sensitive files, according to a report published by The Hindu on July 15, 2026. This security incident highlights critical vulnerabilities in the cybersecurity infrastructure of India's nuclear energy sector, raising immediate concerns regarding the protection of operational data and strategic assets.

The Social Dimensions of CPEC in Pakistan

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Ajay Darshan Behera

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has exacerbated regional inequality, environmental degradation, and social exclusion across Pakistan despite driving over USD 60 billion in energy and infrastructure investments since 2015. Local communities in marginalized areas like Balochistan and Gwadar face severe livelihood disruptions, forced displacement, and intense securitization that restricts civic space.

Balochistan’s Information Black Hole

Brief

The Baloch Liberation Army launched a series of highly coordinated attacks across Balochistan on July 9, 2026, killing at least forty-two police officers and soldiers. These lethal assaults triggered immediate retaliatory military operations that the Pakistani government claims killed seventy-five insurgents, highlighting a rapidly escalating conflict over provincial territorial control.

Sri Lanka’s Brief Window to Stop Displaced Cyber-Scam Networks

E-International Relations  |  Bruno S. Sergi, Fabian M. Teichmann

Sri Lankan police have arrested over one thousand foreign nationals since early 2026 to combat displaced Southeast Asian cyber-scam networks migrating to the island. This rapid influx of illicit operations threatens the country's fragile post-crisis economic recovery and its upcoming international money-laundering evaluation, which could return the nation to the Financial Action Task Force's grey list.

How China Is Winning Friends and Influencing People

Foreign Affairs  |  Lizzi C. Lee, Eric Olander

Chinese private enterprises are rapidly expanding their commercial footprint in Vietnam, significantly enhancing Beijing's soft power and influence across the developing world. This corporate expansion integrates Chinese consumer technology, electric vehicles, and digital platforms directly into the daily lives of local populations, establishing a subtle but durable foundation for geopolitical alignment.

Xi Purges Six More PLA Generals

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Brandon Tran, Gerui Zhang

Chinese President Xi Jinping has purged six high-ranking People’s Liberation Army generals to dismantle patronage networks associated with former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia. This sweeping action targets previously insulated sectors, including the PLA Air Force and the Western Theater Command, prioritizing political loyalty over combat experience.

Chinese nuclear weapons, 2026

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists  |  Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight-Boyle

China has accelerated its nuclear modernization program to field an estimated 620 nuclear warheads, establishing the fastest-growing arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states. This rapid expansion includes developing three new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields and refitting ballistic missile submarines with new, longer-range JL-3 missiles to strengthen Beijing's strategic deterrence posture.

“The Venezuela Model” and the New US Doctrine

Istituto Affari Internazionali | Rafael Ramírez

On 3 January 2026, US military forces launched air strikes in Caracas, captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and installed a transitional government led by Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez to assert Washington's strategic and security interests. This unilateral intervention bypassed the United Nations Security Council, establishing a precedent for direct political and economic tutelage.

America Can Bomb Iran. It Cannot Bomb Away the Strait of Hormuz

19FortyFive  |  Andrew Latham

United States military strikes against Iranian air defences and naval craft near the Strait of Hormuz have failed to secure the waterway, as commercial transit fell 52 percent between July 10 and July 12. Only six vessels transited on Sunday, proving that tactical escalation dominance cannot eliminate Iran's asymmetric capacity to disrupt shipping.

Army Pioneers Use of Generative AI “Data Minutes” for Multi- Domain Missions

Warrior Maven  |  Tuva Siegel

The United States Army Pacific is integrating generative and agentic artificial intelligence into daily operational workflows through structured 'data minutes' to streamline multi-domain combat operations. This rapid technological adoption aims to accelerate tactical decision-making cycles across the Pacific theatre while maintaining strict human-in-the-loop oversight for precision targeting. Operationalizing these capabilities follows the recent redesignation of the 7th Infantry Division into the Multi-Domain Command–Pacific, which fuses traditional ground forces with long-range precision fires, cyber, space, and electronic warfare.

Why Trump Seems Confused By His Own War

Persuasion | Sam Kahn

Donald Trump and his administration have initiated a major foreign policy shift by adopting a doctrine of "flexible realism" that prioritises raw power and national self-interest over international law. This strategic transition has driven aggressive U.S. interventions in Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba, despite the president appearing personally detached from the escalating conflicts.

Europe Finally Fears the Algorithm of War

E-International Relations  |  Muhammad Saad

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran, utilizing Palantir’s Maven Smart System and Anthropic’s artificial intelligence model to strike over 13,000 targets. Among these was a converted elementary school in Minab where an algorithmic targeting error killed 165 civilians, sparking intense European anxiety over machine-speed warfare.

Russia’s Virtual Retreat in War Against Ukraine is Accelerating

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Pavel K. Baev

Ukrainian military forces are accelerating a highly effective virtual offensive and drone campaign, systematically degrading Russian air defences and energy infrastructure to seize a strategic edge in the war. These precision strikes have crippled maritime traffic in the Sea of Azov and triggered a severe domestic fuel crisis within Russia.

Russia Expands Youth Militarization (Part One)

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Maksym Beznosiuk

Russia is expanding basic military training in schools for grades 6–11 starting September 1, 2026, to prepare students for military service and wartime jobs. This curriculum overhaul increases the military instruction component from 20 percent to 50 percent of the "Fundamentals of Homeland Security and Defense" class while integrating drone and artificial intelligence training.

US Space Command (USSPACECOM)

Apogee, 2026, v. 3, no. 1 

• The Silent War Above: Cyberattacks and AI Are Reshaping the Future of Space Conflict
• Resilient and Reusable: Space Force’s X-37B Spaceplane Spends Years on Cutting-Edge Missions as the CCP Tries to Catch Up
• Nearing the End: Aging Weather Satellites Making Way for New Spacecraft, International Partnership
• What’s Next in Military Weather
• Weapons in Space: Jammers, Lasers and the Contest for Superiority
• No Surprises: As Space Maneuvers Evolve Into ‘Dogfighting,’ Keeping Track Gets Harder
• The Physics of Space Warfighting, Hollywood Style with Conflicts Emerging on Orbit, And Accuracy Trending in Sci-Fi, Filmmakers Face a New Reality
• Mega Moment: Starlink’s 2019 Debut Heralded a New Age of Worldwide Internet Access
• Inviting Space Commerce into Space Security: A Discussion with the U.S. Space Force Front Door Director on Easing Industry Integration
• Racing the Clock in Space: How Tactically Responsive Space is Reshaping the U.S. Military’s Strategy on Orbit
• Counterpunch: More Spacefaring Militaries Work to Defend Assets, Prevent Attacks
• Space Superiority: A Surge in U.S. Military Satellite Launches and Shift Toward Vast Constellations Signal a New Era of Competition on Orbit

Ground Robots Inherit the Kill Zone

IEEE Spectrum  |  Tereza Pultarova

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered the procurement of 50,000 uncrewed ground vehicles by the end of 2026 to establish a human-free frontline. This massive military acquisition represents a three-fold increase over 2025 procurement levels, aiming to replace human soldiers with ground robots in highly contested combat zones along the front.

Nearly 200 Economists and Tech Leaders Warn of A.I. Threats

The New York Times  |  Ben Casselman

A coalition of nearly 200 economists and technology leaders, including 15 Nobel laureates and executives from OpenAI and Anthropic, has issued a joint statement warning that artificial intelligence could disrupt the global economy faster than any previous technology. The signatories urge policymakers to immediately formulate rapid regulatory responses to mitigate potential large-scale job displacement.

Chokehold: Countering Israel’s Grip on the West Bank Economy

International Crisis Group

The Israeli government has imposed severe economic penalties on the West Bank since October 2023, choking off the PA's revenue streams and restricting movement. This aggressive policy has pushed the Palestinian financial system to the brink of insolvency and caused a gross domestic product contraction of over 20 per cent, threatening total economic collapse.

Inside Israel’s Secret Operation to Cultivate Ahmadinejad

The New York Times  |  Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes, Farnaz Fassihi, Ronen Bergman

Israeli intelligence operatives launched a yearslong secret operation to groom former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an intelligence asset to eventually install him as Iran's new leader. This covert initiative culminated in a dramatic, ultimately unsuccessful attempt to extract him to a Mossad safe house inside Iran during the early days of the war.

Innovation Under Fire: Ukraine’s Wartime Adaptation and the Future of European Security

Institute for Security and Development Policy

Ukraine has established a highly dynamic wartime innovation ecosystem to counter Russia’s full-scale invasion, compressing multi-year defense development cycles into days. This rapid adaptation spans cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, digital governance, and decentralized defense production networks, directly challenging Russian military superiority on the battlefield. Under sustained military and hybrid pressure, these advancements are institutionalized through platforms like BRAVE1 and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.

Collapse of US-Iran Ceasefire and the Rise of Chaotic Multipolar World Order

Nitishastra | Navroop Singh and Himja Parekh

The United States military has launched a massive aerial campaign striking over 170 Iranian targets after the collapse of the Versailles ceasefire, severely threatening global energy security. This escalation followed the failure of the Muscat diplomatic talks and subsequent Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drone attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why Dark Crossings Risk a Forever War

Newsweek  |  Shane Croucher

Commercial merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly disabling their Automatic Identification System transponders to evade Iranian missile and drone attacks. This tactical workaround keeps critical global energy supplies flowing but deepens American military involvement, raising the risk of an open-ended, low-intensity conflict between the United States and Iran.

The Anthropic Ban and the Limits of Weaponized Interdependence

E-International Relations | Guilherme Frizzera

In June 2026, the United States government instructed Anthropic to suspend global access to its newly released Fable 5 and Mythos 5 artificial intelligence models due to potential safeguard bypass vulnerabilities. This unprecedented export-control order targeted the software models themselves rather than physical semiconductor hardware, disrupting services for foreign nationals, domestic employees, and international allies.

The Myth of Post-Industrial War: Regenerative Power and the Future of Deterrence

E-International Relations | Martina Sprague

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have shattered post-Cold War strategic assumptions by demonstrating that technological sophistication cannot substitute for industrial endurance in high-intensity conflicts. NATO forces face critical ammunition and air-defense shortages, proving that modern precision-guided munitions and advanced digital systems remain tightly coupled with mass production and throughput.

Is London shifting from nuclear deterrence to war-fighting?

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The United Kingdom initiated a major shift toward tactical nuclear war-fighting in June 2025 by acquiring 12 nuclear-capable F-35A stealth fighter jets to join NATO's air-launched nuclear mission. This decision, coupled with the suspected deployment of United States B61-12 gravity bombs to RAF Lakenheath, introduces high-precision, variable-yield counter-force capabilities to Europe.

A Major Move by India

Geopolitical Futures | George Friedman

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured pivotal economic and defence cooperation agreements with Japan, Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand this month to counter Chinese regional dominance. This diplomatic expansion builds on previous security discussions with Vietnam to establish a powerful coalition capable of restricting China's maritime access to critical global shipping lanes.

The Geography Of Terrorism Has Shifted

Eurasia Review  |  Rohan Gunaratna

The Islamic State's operational center has shifted to Sub-Saharan Africa, where the group claimed nearly 90% of its global attacks in the first half of 2026. This geographic realignment has resulted in unprecedented lethality, with 138 attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo causing 769 casualties and 250 attacks in Nigeria causing 696 casualties.

Why Nepal's GenZ Is Again On Streets Against PM They Elected Just Months Ago

MSN | Sanstuti Nath

Nepalese youth protesters from the Generation Z demographic have returned to the streets in large numbers to demonstrate against the country's Prime Minister. This widespread public mobilization occurs only months after these same young voters actively participated in electing the current leader to office, signaling a rapid collapse of political trust.

The Wrong Way To Compete With China in Biotech

Manual Input  |  Jennifer Crook, Steve A Johnson

The United States government is restricting capital and market access to counter China's expanding biotechnology sector, risking domestic pharmaceutical security. Beijing now controls over 30 percent of global drug development, while the American share has declined to 37 percent. This power shift stems from decades of systematic state subsidies aimed at dominating global active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturing.

The Guardian view on Trump and Tehran: everyone loses when the US and Iran overplay their hands

The Guardian

Tehran's closure of the strait of Hormuz has reignited military hostilities with the United States, threatening global energy corridors and compounding severe humanitarian crises in Somalia and Afghanistan. Renewed military strikes erupted after Iran targeted transit vessels, prompting immediate American retaliatory strikes that effectively collapsed a recently signed bilateral memorandum of understanding.

Trump’s Iran Deal Has Collapsed, Leaving the U.S. With Few Good Options

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Max Boot

President Donald Trump reinstated the United States blockade on Iranian oil and threatened a 20 percent cargo toll after Iran closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This rapid escalation followed intense retaliatory airstrikes between both nations, effectively collapsing the bilateral memorandum of understanding signed at Versailles on June 18.

Who Should Shape the Future of Development, and How?

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Andrew Friedman, Hadeil Ali

The Trump administration’s dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in January 2025 and subsequent global official development assistance cuts of $56 billion have severely disrupted international development. These funding reductions have forced over 70 percent of surveyed civil society organizations to lay off staff, with nearly 40 percent losing at least 31 percent of their workforce.

The Unipolar Moment

Foreign Affairs  |  Charles Krauthammer

The United States emerged as the sole global superpower following the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, establishing an unprecedented unipolar international structure. This sudden geopolitical shift immediately challenged prevailing academic assumptions that the post-Cold War era would naturally transition into a stable, multipolar system of widely dispersed regional powers.

How to Keep Iran Out of the Strait of Hormuz

National Interest  |  Mark Kimmitt

The United States launched heavy airstrikes against eighty Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets on July 7, escalating to ninety targets on July 8, to contest Iranian efforts to impose hegemonic control over the Strait of Hormuz. These formidable military actions responded to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels, signaling a restart of the US-Iran War.

America and Iran’s Strange Moment of Opportunity

Foreign Affairs  |  Ali Vaez

The American and Israeli militaries have waged a full-scale war against the Islamic Republic of Iran over the last four months, resulting in the targeted assassination of much of the country's political and military leadership. This intense military campaign prompted immediate retaliation from Iran, which launched direct attacks against United States military bases, infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, and Israel.

Iran hits two UAE tankers in Strait of Hormuz as US carries out third night of strikes

BBC News  |  Peter Hoskins, Cai Pigliucci

The United States military conducted its third consecutive night of precision airstrikes against Iranian coastal defences, missile sites, and maritime capabilities to secure the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation followed an Iranian cruise missile attack on two United Arab Emirates tankers, which killed one crew member and injured eight others.

How Ukraine’s Drone Campaign Is Testing Russia’s Oil Industry

The National Interest  |  Paul J. Saunders, Sergey Vakulenko

Ukraine’s drone campaign targeting Russian refineries, fuel depots, and energy infrastructure is actively testing the resilience of Moscow's primary economic engine. These persistent aerial attacks have successfully reduced refining capacity and triggered localized fuel shortages across the country, directly threatening the Kremlin's ability to fund its ongoing military operations.

UK and EU strike Russian cyber networks with new sanctions

Gov.uk

The United Kingdom and the European Union launched their first joint cyber sanctions package on 13 July 2026, targeting 24 Russian individuals and entities linked to malicious hybrid operations. This coordinated action attributes a failed cyber-attack against Poland’s electricity grid, which threatened power for 500,000 citizens, to the Russian Federal Security Service Centre 16.

Perspectives on Terrorism

Perspectives on Terrorism, 2026, v.20, no. 2 

• Lethal Adaptation or Overpriced Junk? A Practitioner-Informed Assessment of Geospatial-Enabled Threats by Non-State Adversaries
• Explaining Terrorism in Terms of INUS Conditions
• Does Pakistan Have a “Madrassah Problem”?
• Defining Terrorism: Is There Anything New? A Qualitative Analysis of 470 Definitions
• Referral Pathways and Clinical Profiles among Individuals Involved in Violent Extremism and Violent Nihilism
• AI as Decision Support in P/CVE Evaluation: Opportunities, Limits, and Risks
• Bibliography: Legitimisation and Delegitimisation of Terrorism

Unrestricted Warfare: How Adversarial Information Operations Exploit Liberal Democracies

Small Wars Journal | Yaniv Regev

Hamas, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah are exploiting liberal democracies' commitment to free expression by deploying coordinated information operations to erode domestic political will during conflicts. These non-liberal actors leverage open media environments to bypass military defeats and directly target the public sphere of democratic adversaries, neutralizing their conventional military superiority.

Ukraine Finally Has a Theory of Victory. Will It Work?

Foreign Policy | Christian Caryl

Ukraine has formulated a comprehensive theory of victory against Russia by leveraging long-range missile capabilities and deep strikes to target critical infrastructure, including oil refineries and military assets in Crimea. This strategic shift aims to disrupt Russian logistics, degrade Moscow's economic engine, and alter the Kremlin's cost-benefit analysis regarding the prolonged conflict.

How Ukraine Figured Out Trump World

Foreign Policy | Ravi Agrawal

Dmytro Kuleba, the former Ukrainian Foreign Minister, has detailed Ukraine's strategic efforts to navigate the shifting diplomatic and military policies of the second Trump administration. This diplomatic outreach aims to secure vital U.S. military assistance and maintain critical international support amidst the ongoing war with Russia. Kyiv's proactive engagement reflects a broader necessity to align Ukrainian survival with Washington's evolving geopolitical priorities, particularly regarding future NATO integration and critical air defence capabilities like Patriot missile systems.

Beyond Bagamoyo: East Africa’s Indian Ocean Gateway And The Governance Of Afro-Asian Connectivity

Eurasia Review  |  Mercy Melilau Kotikash

East Africa's emerging regional connectivity architecture, comprising the Dar es Salaam port expansion, the proposed Bagamoyo port, and the TAZARA railway revival, is linking the Indian Ocean to Central Africa's mineral-rich interior. This integrated logistics network connects critical transition minerals directly to expanding Asian markets, establishing a vital maritime bridge across the western Indian Ocean.

The End of Reading Is Here

The Atlantic | Rose Horowitch

King Ptolemy I of Egypt established the Library of Alexandria twenty-three hundred years ago to safeguard the sum total of humanity's written knowledge, initiating a historic era of scholarship. However, modern structural shifts suggest this pursuit of universal literacy may ultimately prove to be a short, temporary anomaly in human history.

OPEC Is No Longer Relevant in a Changing Energy World

National Interest  |  Ellen R. Wald

The United States and China are actively reshaping global energy markets in 2026, severely eroding the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) ability to influence oil prices. Record American production of 13.5 million barrels per day and strategic Chinese demand reductions of 4 million barrels per day have neutralized traditional supply-side market interventions.

Iran’s Cyber Threat: What’s Real, What’s Noise and What Comes Ahead

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Lauryn Williams, Nikita Shah, Kuhu Badgi

Iran’s cyber threat capabilities and future digital operations are analyzed in a new podcast episode released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on April 1, 2026. This production, titled Cache Me If You Can, features researchers Lauryn Williams, Nikita Shah, and Kuhu Badgi evaluating state-sponsored digital warfare.

Who Fires The Shot? Closing The Authority Gap In Indo-Pacific Autonomous Warfare

Eurasia Review  |  Burak Oktenli

Autonomous military systems deployed by the United States, Australia, Japan, and India are rapidly integrating across Indo-Pacific coalitions, yet these partners lack a unified doctrine on who authorizes lethal force. This critical authority gap creates severe sovereignty and legal challenges that existing technical data standards cannot resolve, threatening coalition cohesion during high-speed crises.

Is a Solution for Turkey’s S-400 Problem Finally in Sight?

National Interest  |  Peter Suciu

Turkey is negotiating with Russia to transfer its two S-400 Triumf air defense batteries to a Gulf nation to secure readmission into the US-led F-35 Lightning II fighter program. This potential transaction aims to resolve a decade-long diplomatic impasse that triggered Washington to expel Ankara from the joint strike fighter initiative in 2019.

Shaping the Rules Around Autonomous Weapons

FP Analytics

The United Nations Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems faces a critical September 2026 deadline to establish binding international regulations before rapid technological advancements outpace policy frameworks. This regulatory push coincides with a massive global surge in military artificial intelligence integration, where states are rapidly fielding uncrewed platforms to gain decisive battlefield advantages.

Why navies still matter in the age of drones

ASPI Strategist  |  Sean Andrews

Maritime drones are disrupting modern naval operations in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, yet they remain incapable of achieving decisive sea control or replacing traditional navies. While cheap, expendable drones can damage billion-dollar warships and harass trade routes, they cannot secure shipping lanes, project sovereignty, or uphold maritime order.

PIA’s Sale and the Debt Left Behind

Brief.pk

Pakistan's privatisation of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) represents a critical shift in how the current government manages state-owned assets to mitigate severe financial losses. This high-stakes sale of the national carrier serves as a major test of public liability, private investment integration, and the concentration of economic power.

China’s Strategic Corridor in Pakistan: Progress, Dependency, and the Uncertain Future of CPEC

Institute for Security and Development Policy

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has transitioned into a long-term mechanism of strategic influence, embedding Beijing within Islamabad’s economic and political architecture. This integration deepens Pakistan's structural dependency on Chinese finance, technology, and security arrangements while advancing China's broader Eurasian ambitions through the critical Gwadar Port. Launched formally in 2015 as a flagship Belt and Road Initiative project, the corridor initially focused on addressing chronic energy shortages and expanding transport infrastructure during Phase I.

Forging the Arsenal Corridor: China–Pakistan Defense Integration and the New Strategic Supply Chain

Institute for Security and Development Policy

China’s military partnership with Pakistan has transitioned from a traditional supplier-recipient relationship into a deeply integrated strategic defense alliance. This structural recalibration equips Islamabad with advanced fighter aircraft, layered air defenses, and next-generation naval platforms to offset India's conventional military superiority and secure critical maritime corridors. The bilateral cooperation aligns with Beijing's broader Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, embedding Pakistan into a shared military-industrial ecosystem.

9th Aviation Brigade Likely Validates Manned-Unmanned Teaming Combat Methods

China Aerospace Studies Institute

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force has advanced its manned-unmanned teaming capabilities by validating new combat methods designed to integrate piloted fighter jets with autonomous systems. Specifically, the 9th Aviation Brigade based at Wuhu Air Base in Anhui Province supported validation efforts for J-20 stealth fighters executing coordinated penetration operations.

Trump's Iran Blunder Shows Strategy Can Defeat Firepower

Bloomberg  |  Hal Brands

The United States-Iran conflict has exposed the severe limitations of military firepower when deployed without a coherent long-term strategy. Tehran executed a highly deliberate plan to survive by choking the global economy, whereas Washington failed to formulate any viable counter-strategy despite possessing overwhelming material and financial superiority in the Persian Gulf.

Iran ceasefire was always going to break – here’s why

The Conversation

The United States and Iran have resumed direct military conflict in the Middle East less than a month after signing a ceasefire agreement at Versailles. Following Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington launched “punishment” strikes on more than 80 targets, prompting retaliatory strikes on American bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Hard-Liners in Iran Want to Keep Fighting America

The New York Times  |  Neil MacFarquhar

Iranian ultra-hard-liners are demanding a continued military confrontation with the United States following a US-Israeli campaign in February that decapitated Tehran's leadership. This political maneuvering seeks to narrow the space for diplomatic compromise by portraying negotiations as strategically dangerous. The underlying operational friction stems from contested control over vital shipping lanes passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Why Trump’s nuclear blackmail of Iran failed spectacularly

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

On April 7, 2026, US President Donald Trump issued an implicit nuclear threat against Iran on Truth Social, demanding an immediate ceasefire during the US-Israeli war. This escalating coercive rhetoric aimed to force Tehran into submission after intensive conventional military campaigns failed to break the strategic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Europe’s New German Question

Project Syndicate  |  Marco Buti, Francesco Nicoli

Germany and other European Union member states are rapidly increasing unilateral defense spending to secure the continent, but this isolated approach risks perpetuating a fragmented, outdated defense architecture. This lack of coordination threatens to leave the bloc permanently dependent on the United States for critical military assets and security guarantees.

Europe: a great power in the making

Engelsberg Ideas | Dimitar Bechev

European Union member states are rapidly accelerating their militarisation and economic defences to counter existential security threats from Russia and industrial overcapacity from China. This strategic shift marks a decisive departure from traditional civilian governance toward active power politics as the United States becomes an increasingly unreliable security partner.

The Next Russia Threat

Foreign Affairs  |  Michael Kofman

Russian military forces are visibly struggling on the battlefield in Ukraine as Kyiv’s strategic endurance successfully renders the ongoing invasion futile for Moscow. This tactical stagnation will not neutralize the long-term threat to European security, as the Kremlin remains deeply committed to upending the continent's security architecture even in the event of a battlefield defeat.

How Russia Learned To Adapt To Drone Warfare

Forbes  |  David Kirichenko

The Russian military is rapidly institutionalizing drone warfare innovations to counter Ukrainian forces by establishing specialized elite units and deploying autonomous systems. In August 2024, Moscow created Rubicon, the Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, to target Ukrainian drone crews, electronic warfare systems, and logistics routes up to 40 kilometers behind the front lines.

Russia’s Fuel Shortages Strike Russians at Home

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Mamie Powers

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have damaged 20 percent to 40 percent of Russia's refining capacity, triggering severe domestic fuel shortages. These precision attacks now reach up to 2,500 kilometers inside Russian territory, forcing 56 of Russia's 89 regions to implement strict gasoline rationing measures.

Combating Terrorism Center (CTC)

CTC Sentinel, June 2026, v. 19, no. 6 

• Standing With Iran: The Integrated Combat Performance of Iraqi Militias During Operation Epic Fury
• A View from CT Foxhole: Brigadier General Matthew Ross, Director, JIATF-401
• Remotely Coerced Violence: 764, The Com Network, and the Hybridization of Threats

The Invisible Munition Winning the War in Ukraine: Live Data

Real Clear Defense  |  Matthew Van Wagenen, Arnel P. David

Ukrainian military forces are leveraging a hyper-connected digital nervous system to convert ambient civilian data into lethal kinetic targeting at machine speed. This rapid algorithmic data fusion collapses traditional linear kill chains into a continuous, highly resilient kill web. This profound operational shift marks a permanent transition from legacy platform-centric warfare to network-centric cognitive conflict on the European continent.

Ukraine’s Drone War: The Rise of Machine-Speed Adaptive Hyperwar

Hudson Institute  |  Can Kasapoğlu

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces are rapidly scaling robotic military assets to counter Russian manpower advantages, establishing a twenty mile attrition belt that has transformed the frontline into a highly transparent, drone denied grey zone. These autonomous ground and aerial platforms now execute ninety percent of frontline logistics in heavily contested sectors like Pokrovsk.

The 21-Mile Chokepoint

Real Clear Defense  |  Harshit Singh, Noppadon Wongsuvan

Iranian gunboats and a drone targeted a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on February 3, 2026, triggering an immediate spike in global oil prices despite no physical disruption occurring. This incident demonstrates how asymmetric actors can weaponize the threat of maritime interdiction to manipulate energy markets through financial transmission channels.

What precipitated a worldwide total war in the 1930s?

Spectator  |  Christopher Harding

The global escalation of the Second World War between 1931 and 1941 is re-examined in Jonathan Fennell’s new book, Collapse: A Global History of the Second World War, 1931-1941, which analyzes how transnational radicalisation drove total war. This historical reassessment directly challenges traditional, Eurocentric narratives by examining how interconnected global economies and rapid technological innovations impacted diverse populations.

Chips, Code, and Control: Rewriting the Economics of Old Tech Wars

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Abhivardhan and Jagannath Panda

The United States–China technology rivalry is fragmenting into two distinct geopolitical domains, separating physical semiconductor manufacturing from highly networked artificial intelligence ecosystems. While Washington and Beijing weaponize critical hardware chokepoints like lithography and electronic design automation tools, the global software landscape remains highly collaborative through open-source models and cross-border talent mobility.

As Anthropic Fights Trump, China Steals Its AI Capabilities

Real Clear Defense  |  Scott Gureck

The Trump Administration in mid-June imposed strict export controls on Anthropic’s advanced Mythos 5 and Fable 5 artificial intelligence models over national security concerns, triggering a major domestic legal and political dispute that threatens American technological leadership against China. This regulatory restriction followed intelligence reports indicating that the proprietary systems could be jailbroken to enable offensive cyber capabilities.

A Silent Escalation: Anti-Technology Violence Coming to the Fore

GNET | Mauro Lubrano

The firebombing of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s house and recent attacks on European electrical grids highlight a quiet escalation in violent anti-technology extremism. These targeted assaults on high-profile technology leaders and critical infrastructure threaten to disrupt global digital systems and accelerate copycat actions by decentralized networks targeting emerging artificial intelligence platforms.

NATO Needs a Defense Market

Project Syndicate  |  Fiona E. Murray, Robert Murray

NATO member states must establish a unified defense market to effectively convert national resources into robust military capabilities. While increasing defense spending and reforming procurement systems are necessary steps, expanding industrial capacity remains the critical bottleneck for the alliance. Historically, rapid mobilization was possible, as seen when Canada scaled up production to build over 800,000 military vehicles during World War II.

Lab Review to Modernize R&D Enterprise – DoW Research & Engineering, OUSW(R&E)

Office of the Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering

The Office of the Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering has finalized a comprehensive set of recommendations to modernize and reform the War Department's vast research and development enterprise. This strategic initiative aims to eliminate bureaucratic friction points and accelerate the delivery of combat-ready technologies to frontline warfighters.