Lawrence Freedman
If the Russian drones and aircraft appearing over European airspace were isolated incidents they might be explained away as unfortunate mistakes. But the incidents are accumulating sufficiently to detect a pattern.
Starting on 9 September when drones entered Polish airspace, with some shot down, we have had a drone in Romanian airspace, tracked for 50 minutes but not shot down, three MiG-31 fighter jets in Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland, and then drone sightings requiring Denmark and Norway to shut down their main airports for four hours.
On 24 September, two Russian Tu-95 long-range strategic bombers and two Su-35 fighter jets flew into the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). As this is still international airspace it is not quite so serious an incident, though the zone abuts US and Canadian sovereign airspace. The US sent up fighter aircraft to identify and intercept the Russian aircraft. The next day two Hungarian Gripen fighter jets, based in Lithuania, intercepted five Russian military aircraft over the Baltic Sea, close to but not in, Latvian air space.
We can discount any idea that this is all accidental, that the drones overshot or pilots lost their bearings. When a score of unarmed drones launched from four different points all find their way into Poland at the same time, or when aircraft edge into Estonian airspace for long enough to be noticed but not for so long or so far to appear as a major violation, you can assume that this is intentional. The Danes have not confirmed Russian responsibility but have hinted at it, with the head of their national security and intelligence service warning of the risk of Russian espionage and sabotage. A police official described the perpetrator as a ‘capable operator’ who wanted to ‘show off.’ That sounds about right.
What are the Russians up to? In public the Kremlin always denies responsibility and blames its adversaries for making stuff up or exaggerating its significance. It does not really care if its denials are plausible as it is not going to be held to account. The ever-dependable spokesman Dmitri Peskov dismissed ‘unfounded accusations.’
‘A party that takes a responsible and serious position should probably not make such unsubstantiated accusations again and again.’
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