Reuben Johnson
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon assigned to the 510th Fighter Generation Squadron takes off during Exercise Anatolian Eagle 25 at the 3rd Main Jet Base, Konya, Türkiye, June 30, 2025. Through realistic multinational training, the 31st Fighter Wing enhances survivability, increases combat effectiveness and demonstrates that the U.S. and its Allies and partners are prepared to defend the homeland, deter aggression, and, if necessary, fight and win. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Zachary Jakel)
-Europe’s fragmented defense industry, ammunition shortages, and uneven appetite for risk create openings for a rapid, deniable “fait accompli” in the Baltics using EW, drones, and covert forces.
-That scenario wouldn’t resemble a set-piece tank battle; it would be a shock campaign designed to split allies before they can mobilize.
The Baltic Fait Accompli: Putin’s Most Likely Play Against NATO
WARSAW, POLAND – Recent incidents involving Russia and neighboring NATO member-states have the world asking two questions. One is just how a war between Moscow and the transatlantic Alliance might begin.
The other is what would have to transpire for a conflict to spread from a localized incursion or skirmish into a full-fledged war between the two.
On Sept. 9, at least 19 Russian drones heading toward targets in Ukraine crossed over into Poland, catching the Polish air defense command off-guard. In a second incident, three Russian Aerospace Forces Mikoyan MiG-31 fighters – manned aircraft with two-man aircrews – violated Estonian air space on Sept. 19.
In both cases, the nations in question – Poland and Estonia – called for Article 4 consultations in accordance with the NATO charter. Under Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, “members can bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, to the table for discussion within the North Atlantic Council.” Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked only nine times.
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