Veronica Anghel and Sergey Radchenko
In the early hours of September 10, Polish and NATO forces shot down several of the 19 Russian drones estimated to have crossed into Polish airspace—an unprecedented incursion that caused consternation and alarm throughout Europe. Russia denied responsibility, implying that the drones had simply lost their way; NATO and European officials suggested the violation was intentional. Whatever the case, the clash marked the first time that NATO engaged enemies in allied territory. A few days later, another Russian drone moved into NATO airspace, this time over Romania, although the Romanians took no action and the drone eventually crossed into Ukraine. These events underline what remains a daunting prospect for Europeans: the possibility that the grinding war of attrition in Ukraine will spill over into a broader war between Europe and Russia.
Moscow’s evident determination to keep fighting in Ukraine has fueled mounting anxiety among European leaders. Since Donald Trump’s return to office, they have twisted themselves into diplomatic contortions to implore, indulge, and flatter the American president in the hopes of sustaining the White House’s engagement with the war in Ukraine and of keeping Russia at bay. Yet it was Russian President Vladimir Putin—the “ogre at the door,” as French President Emmanuel Macron once called him—who strolled down a red carpet, to Trump’s applause, before a bilateral summit in Alaska in August. The Europeans, who weren’t invited, turned to damage control. The following week, European leaders flew to Washington alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to offer him support and show a united front against Russia. Trump treated his guests as he might contestants on The Apprentice: at once effusive, then dismissive, and always uncommitted. By the dismally low standards of current transatlantic relations, the meeting was a success only for ending without incident.
The latest round of U.S.-Russian pageantry was another reminder of what has long been clear: Europe’s security is being decided elsewhere. Caught between a revisionist Kremlin and an indifferent White House, Europe is consistently outmaneuvered and often marginalized. The European Union’s failure to shape global geopolitical outcomes stems from its own foreign policy incoherence, including a historic overreliance on the United States and an inability to develop a consistent strategy for dealing with Russia, its key adversary.
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