Scott N. Romaniuk and László Csicsmann
Russian incursions into NATO airspace are neither random nor accidental—they are deliberate, calculated manoeuvres within a broader strategy of salami slicing.
Each flight, drone sortie, or radar probe serves multiple purposes: testing NATO’s political and military resolve, exposing fissures within the alliance, and incrementally reshaping Europe’s security landscape in Moscow’s favour. By staying below the threshold of war, Russia advances strategic objectives while minimising the risk of a coordinated or forceful Western response.
Airspace violations form a key component of Moscow’s broader hybrid warfare strategy, which also encompasses maritime harassment, cyber operations, and disinformation campaigns. The aerial domain is especially potent: highly visible, fast-moving, and capable of provoking immediate military responses. Russian aircraft routinely enter or skirt the airspace of NATO states on Europe’s eastern flank—including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, and Romania—often with transponders off and without notifying civilian air traffic control. These incursions endanger civilian aviation, trigger costly scramble operations, and send a deliberate signal that NATO’s limits are being tested.
Each flight functions as both a probe and a pressure point—a low-cost, high-impact tool advancing Moscow’s objectives while forcing the alliance to confront the challenges of deterrence, cohesion, and credible response. China mirrors these tactics in the Indo-Pacific, applying similarly incremental, assertive actions across air, sea, and information domains. Together, Moscow and Beijing are reshaping the rules of strategic competition, demonstrating how sustained, deniable pressure can shift norms without triggering full-scale war.
Airspace as a Weapon: Low-Cost, High-Impact Pressure
The pattern is clear. In 2025, NATO members across Northern and Eastern Europe reported a surge in Russian incursions. Norway has faced multiple short violations over the Barents Sea and Finnmark region in recent years, with a notable increase in 2025. Whether navigational errors or deliberate provocations, the sudden rise in flights rattled Oslo. Norwegian defence officials emphasised a broader pattern: Russian aircraft regularly trigger NATO intercepts, strain resources, and probe alliance readiness.
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